#5: Is 2021 the Consolidation Phase for Core Central Region Properties? | NOTG S2 E5

1[Melvin Lim]
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Today’s topic, we want to talk a little bit about

2[Melvin Lim]
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CCR market.

3[Melvin Lim]
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How is the market movement.

4[Melvin Lim]
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Price trend movement across different districts.

5[Melvin Lim]
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Meantime, Daniel, can you pass me like a cushion.

6[Melvin Lim]
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This one.

7[Melvin Lim]
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All right welcome back to Nuggets On The Go episode 5

8[Melvin Lim]
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Good to see you guys again.

9[Melvin Lim]
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Thank you for watching episode number 1, 2, 3, and 4

10[Melvin Lim]
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We’ve got a couple of questions

11[Melvin Lim]
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after our airing of episode four, just last week

12[Melvin Lim]
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on is it prime time for landed properties market?

13[Melvin Lim]
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And we have a couple

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of questions coming in through our channels

15[Melvin Lim]
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and we’ll be replying you through email.

16[Melvin Lim]
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Probably I can answer a little bit right here as well.

17[Melvin Lim]
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Meantime, Daniel, can you pass me

18[Melvin Lim]
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like a cushion, this one. I’ve been eating a lot

19[Melvin Lim]
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of junk food with the kids.

20[Melvin Lim]
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So today’s topic, we want to talk a little bit

21[Melvin Lim]
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about the CCR market and how is the market movement

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especially when we look at the price trends

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movement across different districts,

24[Melvin Lim]
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in terms of new launches versus the resale market.

25[Melvin Lim]
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Recently, we just did a webinar and

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we talked a little bit more about the general market trends,

27[Melvin Lim]
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as well as some deep dive on the ground observations

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And I think perhaps this will be useful

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for you if you’re hunting for a property right now

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whether is it for your own stay or maybe for a little bit

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more long term investment kind of objective.

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So just to answer one of our so-called questions

33[Melvin Lim]
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that we received regarding the last episode is

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that somebody was asking us about the price trend movement

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of inter terraces versus semi-detached

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across different districts.

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Just to share, different districts,

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they perform a little bit differently.

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So for example, if I were to compare District 19

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versus District 15, District 19 usually

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in terms of the PSF comparison and overall quantum pricing,

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it will be a slightly, I would say

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a slightly lower tier compared

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to a D15 zoning because D15 is the RCR district.

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D19 is technically an OCR district.

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There are some price disparity

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within these two district options.

48[Melvin Lim]
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D15 will be of a slightly higher tier,

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D19, slightly lower tier a little bit but it’s not too huge

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of a difference because both of these districts,

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they have its own pool of audiences.

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A lot of audiences, they have been living in

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D15 for years and they wouldn’t want to shift out of D15.

54[Melvin Lim]
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A lot of families that are in D19,

55[Melvin Lim]
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they love the Kovan, they love Poh Huat area.

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They love Serangoon Garden area,

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they wouldn’t want to shift out of D19 as well.

58[Melvin Lim]
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But of course, as we look

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at these two tiers within the districts itself.

60[Melvin Lim]
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There are micro-tiers as well.

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So for example, D19 Serangoon Garden is

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the cream of the crop.

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So usually in terms of price trend movements,

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Serangoon Garden will lead the price trend movement

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for the D19 zoning.

66[Melvin Lim]
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If you look at D15, usually the radius

67[Melvin Lim]
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which is 1 km from the very famous primary school

68[Melvin Lim]
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which is Tao Nan School.

69[Melvin Lim]
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They usually will lead the tier for some

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of the price trends in D15 zoning but of course, D15 has

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a huge area

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of zoning all the way starting from Siglap

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And then you move to a Marine Terrace

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you move to Marine Parade, you have Telok Kurau

75[Melvin Lim]
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and then you go to Joo Chiat area,

76[Melvin Lim]
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and then you go to Amber, you go to Meyer,

77[Melvin Lim]
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so theres a wide range of

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price trend movement and

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you have Siglap as well.

80[Melvin Lim]
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D15 by itself is a really the,

81[Melvin Lim]
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the blue chip zoning, right?

82[Melvin Lim]
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But it’s little bit harder to differentiate based

83[Melvin Lim]
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on micro trends as well.

84[Melvin Lim]
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I think end of day, it depends on where you love to stay.

85[Melvin Lim]
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And if let’s say I were to take up another district, which is D28

86[Melvin Lim]
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so D28 compared to D19 definitely

87[Melvin Lim]
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in terms of PSF and quantum price movement,

88[Melvin Lim]
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D 19 will be of a higher tier compared to D28.

89[Melvin Lim]
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So, I think if let’s say you want to look

90[Melvin Lim]
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at what kind of disparity is going on between

91[Melvin Lim]
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the inter-terraces, corner terraces, and semi-detached,

92[Melvin Lim]
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you would then have to zoom down accordingly

93[Melvin Lim]
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to your own district that your property is in.

94[Melvin Lim]
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Look at the general price trend of the four types

95[Melvin Lim]
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of landed properties that we have talked about

96[Melvin Lim]
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which is those that are meant for rebuilt.

97[Melvin Lim]
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Those, there are about 30 years old.

98[Melvin Lim]
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Those are within the 15 years old mark.

99[Melvin Lim]
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And then those that are brand new, brand new type.

100[Melvin Lim]
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Compare that to that same four categories

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with the semi-detached within your same district.

102[Melvin Lim]
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Look at what is the current price trend.

103[Melvin Lim]
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And I think perhaps what we will do is that we will

104[Melvin Lim]
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come up with an email address and I’m going to flash it right here

105[Melvin Lim]
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which is [email protected].

106[Melvin Lim]
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Feel free to email us your deep dive questions

107[Melvin Lim]
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regarding landed properties, regarding any other

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topics that we will be talking about in Nuggets On The Go.

109[Melvin Lim]
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I will personally email you back together

110[Melvin Lim]
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with my senior team

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and then we will have a very friendly chat,

112[Melvin Lim]
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answer some of the questions that you have.

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Usually what I’ll do is that

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I’ll sit down with my research team twice a week,

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We look at our emails and we answer them, and we hope

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that this can help you in your journey, in doing research

117[Melvin Lim]
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for the properties that you are looking at.

118[Melvin Lim]
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So back to today’s topic, okay, this is a little bit fluffy,

119[Melvin Lim]
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Okay. But it helps.

120[Melvin Lim]
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Okay. Yeah. I need to cut down on junk food. Okay.

121[Melvin Lim]
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So today we want to talk about this segment

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that we have also been talking about since last year.

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And should I still use back the word “prime time”?

124[Melvin Lim]
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Okay. I would say that this particular segment

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for 2021 moving on to 2022,

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is definitely a hot favourite zone.

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This is the CCR segment.

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And why do we say that it is a hot zone is

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because of all this data that I’m going to share with you

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and plus a lot of things that’s happening on the ground.

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Of course, whenever we say that a certain district

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or certain region is getting popular, this is

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of course in a generic median per square foot,

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And we’re looking at the median range.

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You do have to do a lot of deep dive

136[Melvin Lim]
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to specific condominiums, to specific apartments, to look at

137[Melvin Lim]
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micro disparities within the different projects that are

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in a particular zoning within that district.

139[Melvin Lim]
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So there are still a couple

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more homeworks to do before you actually go down

141[Melvin Lim]
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and then decide on what kind of properties you want to buy.

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So, lets come back to the CCR district.

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I’m going to share with you on my screen right here.

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And we’ll just chat a little bit about this district.

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So let me just share with you the generic price trends.

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Of course, a lot of data right now on public portals

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you can subscribe to, I mean

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a lot of different portals to do your own research.

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This is something that we use quite a fair bit.

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Now, if you look at usually over the past 10 years

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most of the time, if I were to decide

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on what is the average percentage differences

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between the amount of transaction volume

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for new launches vis-a-vis resale.

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Usually, If I were to average it out over the past 10 years

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I would say that it’s usually in the trend of about

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50/50 percent for new launches and resale

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when we look at non-landed residential across

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all districts in Singapore.

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So, this is a very interesting trend to note

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because in Singapore

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I think a lot of so-called buyers, a lot of families,

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they still love the brand new projects from,

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direct from developers, which is why new launches always,

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they have their own pool of audience.

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Resale market also has its own pool of audience

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but of course these two are interconnected

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because the moment you buy a new launch,

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after three to four years, you collect

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your keys and it TOPs and it’s completed

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and if you want to sell it

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then becomes a resale product, right?

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So it’s always interrelated.

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But when you look at the data like this, you will know

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that there are audience for new launches and resale

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and these two are tucked in a very interesting kind of connection

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because what happens, in terms of price movement

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for one category affects the other category.

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For example, if let’s say this season, or this 12 months,

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new launches are moving up steam very, very quickly.

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What might happen usually after 12 to 18 months

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is that there will be a little bit more stability

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after an uptrend of new launches.

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And then resale will start to catch up

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because always remember end of the day,

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new launches or resale, they are looking at the same pool

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of audience, which is they’re all, they’re all hunting

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for the same pool of audience, which is you and me.

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We are either thinking about, “Hey, should I buy new launch

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in 2021 or should I buy a resale in 2021?”

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We’re always contemplating about this question.

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Then you would think, “Hey, should I go

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for a new launch, but you know, a little bit small the size

194[Melvin Lim]
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and all the kind of stuff, PSF is higher, should I go

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for resale, bigger, but it’s older.

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PSF is a little bit lower.”

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So, there are always this kind of balancing that we,

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we are toggling within our mind as a buyer, as an investor,

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and thus these two products,

200[Melvin Lim]
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they always move in this form of disparity, let’s say

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for example, right now, new launches has stabilised

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but resale has caught up quite a fair bit.

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And, if the PSF of resale is pushing

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too close to the new launch PSF,

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what’s going to happen next is

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that buyers would then find that, “Hey, you know,

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I’m paying a PSF for resale,

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that is a little bit too close to the new launches

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within the same district, same region, perhaps,

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maybe I should consider new launch..”

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And then this thing will start to push

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up a little bit more.

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So, there’s always a season

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of movement between these two different products.

215[Melvin Lim]
00:09:25,760 –> 00:09:28,880
And we as a buyer, we need to see what kind

216[Melvin Lim]
00:09:28,880 –> 00:09:32,720
of season are we in right now in 2021 and in 2022.

217[Melvin Lim]
00:09:32,720 –> 00:09:34,720
And what is potentially going to happen

218[Melvin Lim]
00:09:34,720 –> 00:09:38,760
in the next one, two, three years, 12, 18, 24 months,

219[Melvin Lim]
00:09:38,760 –> 00:09:41,680
because that will vastly affect your decision.

220[Melvin Lim]
00:09:41,680 –> 00:09:43,120
And, of course a lot of the time

221[Melvin Lim]
00:09:43,120 –> 00:09:45,840
we always say that there are so many factors

222[Melvin Lim]
00:09:45,840 –> 00:09:48,640
and it’s not just about the timing of entry,

223[Melvin Lim]
00:09:48,640 –> 00:09:51,960
In fact, usually we advise our friends and clients

224[Melvin Lim]
00:09:51,960 –> 00:09:53,040
not to time the market

225[Melvin Lim]
00:09:53,040 –> 00:09:55,480
because your investment horizon is actually so short.

226[Melvin Lim]
00:09:55,480 –> 00:09:58,120
By the time you complete and start working,

227[Melvin Lim]
00:09:58,120 –> 00:10:00,960
you complete your university, or you complete your studies.

228[Melvin Lim]
00:10:00,960 –> 00:10:03,560
You start working at about age 25 to 27,

229[Melvin Lim]
00:10:03,560 –> 00:10:06,400
start building up your work experience, store a little bit

230[Melvin Lim]
00:10:06,400 –> 00:10:10,200
of down payment in your CPF, and a bit of cash savings.

231[Melvin Lim]
00:10:10,200 –> 00:10:13,200
And when you want to start investing,

232[Melvin Lim]
00:10:13,200 –> 00:10:15,120
you will then find that, “Hey, actually

233[Melvin Lim]
00:10:15,120 –> 00:10:17,680
my investment horizon is not that long” it’s, you know

234[Melvin Lim]
00:10:17,680 –> 00:10:21,200
is from late twenties all the way to the age 65 range.

235[Melvin Lim]
00:10:21,200 –> 00:10:23,080
And within this pocket of time,

236[Melvin Lim]
00:10:23,080 –> 00:10:26,000
how many properties can I go in and out?

237[Melvin Lim]
00:10:26,000 –> 00:10:28,680
Can I purchase it, accumulate and invest?

238[Melvin Lim]
00:10:28,680 –> 00:10:31,600
And we usually do not advise our clients

239[Melvin Lim]
00:10:31,600 –> 00:10:33,720
and friends to time the market, because the moment you get

240[Melvin Lim]
00:10:33,720 –> 00:10:35,800
into the mode of timing the market,

241[Melvin Lim]
00:10:35,800 –> 00:10:37,520
you technically short change yourself.

242[Melvin Lim]
00:10:37,520 –> 00:10:40,040
One very important thing, which is your opportunity cost

243[Melvin Lim]
00:10:40,040 –> 00:10:42,880
of time, because time is the only thing you cannot buy back.

244[Melvin Lim]
00:10:42,880 –> 00:10:45,080
And your age factor, and your time factor

245[Melvin Lim]
00:10:45,080 –> 00:10:46,600
affects your loan tenure,

246[Melvin Lim]
00:10:46,600 –> 00:10:49,680
affects your income ability to loan, to leverage

247[Melvin Lim]
00:10:49,680 –> 00:10:52,880
and it affects, of course your judgment call.

248[Melvin Lim]
00:10:52,880 –> 00:10:55,520
And should you really miss the cycle or should

249[Melvin Lim]
00:10:55,520 –> 00:10:57,760
you really time the market in such a way that

250[Melvin Lim]
00:10:57,760 –> 00:10:59,880
you waited too long and you’re priced out of the market

251[Melvin Lim]
00:10:59,880 –> 00:11:01,800
because of inflation, and asset inflation,

252[Melvin Lim]
00:11:01,800 –> 00:11:04,240
a lot of different factors and things like that,

253[Melvin Lim]
00:11:04,240 –> 00:11:07,040
which we’ll talk about more in our different episodes.

254[Melvin Lim]
00:11:07,040 –> 00:11:09,160
Then we think that it’s not really advisable.

255[Melvin Lim]
00:11:09,160 –> 00:11:12,720
So, I think what is advisable is to really

256[Melvin Lim]
00:11:12,720 –> 00:11:16,720
seriously study the disparity within districts, regions,

257[Melvin Lim]
00:11:16,720 –> 00:11:20,320
micro segments, and then find that pocket of

258[Melvin Lim]
00:11:20,320 –> 00:11:22,000
opportunity to enter into the market.

259[Melvin Lim]
00:11:22,160 –> 00:11:24,440
Now let’s head back to this chart.

260[Melvin Lim]
00:11:25,080 –> 00:11:28,600
So, as you can see, price trend over the past 10 years

261[Melvin Lim]
00:11:28,600 –> 00:11:32,800
we are right now, overall in the entire Singapore

262[Melvin Lim]
00:11:32,800 –> 00:11:35,040
or district or non-landed residential.

263[Melvin Lim]
00:11:35,040 –> 00:11:36,920
So today we’re talking about non-landed residential,

264[Melvin Lim]
00:11:36,920 –> 00:11:38,720
we’re not talking about landed properties.

265[Melvin Lim]
00:11:38,720 –> 00:11:40,800
We are, of course, at a new range

266[Melvin Lim]
00:11:40,800 –> 00:11:43,240
of median per square foot across the entire Singapore.

267[Melvin Lim]
00:11:43,240 –> 00:11:45,440
You’ll notice that volume actually kick

268[Melvin Lim]
00:11:45,440 –> 00:11:47,800
up over the past 12 months

269[Melvin Lim]
00:11:47,800 –> 00:11:50,840
in this entire upscale bar right here.

270[Melvin Lim]
00:11:51,400 –> 00:11:55,960
And it’s also important to note that the 50/50 volume

271[Melvin Lim]
00:11:55,960 –> 00:11:57,640
transactions for new launch and resale

272[Melvin Lim]
00:11:57,640 –> 00:11:59,640
does not happen in all districts

273[Melvin Lim]
00:11:59,640 –> 00:12:01,920
because this is on average in the entire Singapore.

274[Melvin Lim]
00:12:01,920 –> 00:12:04,080
Just have a look at District 09.

275[Melvin Lim]
00:12:04,080 –> 00:12:05,320
This is District 09,

276[Melvin Lim]
00:12:06,360 –> 00:12:07,360
District 09, resale,

277[Melvin Lim]
00:12:08,440 –> 00:12:16,160
you have an average of perhaps about 50 to 80 transactions

278[Melvin Lim]
00:12:16,160 –> 00:12:18,760
per month over the past 12 months, every month.

279[Melvin Lim]
00:12:18,760 –> 00:12:20,720
So every month is about 50 to 80 transactions in terms of

280[Melvin Lim]
00:12:20,720 –> 00:12:23,720
resale volume, but when you look at new launches,

281[Melvin Lim]
00:12:23,720 –> 00:12:25,560
in terms of new launch over the past 12 months,

282[Melvin Lim]
00:12:25,560 –> 00:12:29,520
there are a pretty interesting fact, is that the amount

283[Melvin Lim]
00:12:29,520 –> 00:12:31,360
of new launch volume is actually not a lot.

284[Melvin Lim]
00:12:31,360 –> 00:12:36,000
only shot up quite a fair bit in April 2021.

285[Melvin Lim]
00:12:36,000 –> 00:12:37,920
So this is Irwell Hill Residences

286[Melvin Lim]
00:12:37,920 –> 00:12:40,880
because they clocked a total of 324 transaction

287[Melvin Lim]
00:12:40,880 –> 00:12:42,200
in April. So, there was

288[Melvin Lim]
00:12:42,200 –> 00:12:45,360
like a huge volume green indicator mark right here.

289[Melvin Lim]
00:12:45,360 –> 00:12:48,480
So, different districts has different volume ranges

290[Melvin Lim]
00:12:48,480 –> 00:12:49,800
for new launch and resale.

291[Melvin Lim]
00:12:49,800 –> 00:12:52,800
Now, if we look at, this is District 10,

292[Melvin Lim]
00:12:52,800 –> 00:12:57,800
resale volume is actually more than new launches as well.

293[Melvin Lim]
00:12:58,560 –> 00:13:02,440
And if you look at District 19, District 19

294[Melvin Lim]
00:13:02,440 –> 00:13:06,760
have a little bit more interesting ranges

295[Melvin Lim]
00:13:06,760 –> 00:13:08,880
because the resale volume is about usually more

296[Melvin Lim]
00:13:08,880 –> 00:13:14,320
than 150 per month, and then new launches are also quite on par.

297[Melvin Lim]
00:13:14,320 –> 00:13:16,360
All right, So it actually depends on

298[Melvin Lim]
00:13:16,360 –> 00:13:18,680
how many new launches are present

299[Melvin Lim]
00:13:18,680 –> 00:13:21,760
in the OCR belt, in the RCR belt, and in the CCR belt.

300[Melvin Lim]
00:13:21,760 –> 00:13:23,760
Now, partly because in CCR belt, a lot

301[Melvin Lim]
00:13:23,760 –> 00:13:26,080
of new launches happen due to en bloc.

302[Melvin Lim]
00:13:26,080 –> 00:13:30,760
En blocs sometimes happens with more on, I say, micro plots

303[Melvin Lim]
00:13:30,760 –> 00:13:33,040
or maybe smaller boutique developments.

304[Melvin Lim]
00:13:33,040 –> 00:13:34,920
Thus, based on the new launches in CCR,

305[Melvin Lim]
00:13:34,920 –> 00:13:37,200
although there might be quite a couple of new launches

306[Melvin Lim]
00:13:37,200 –> 00:13:41,320
but the volume of every land plot is a little bit smaller

307[Melvin Lim]
00:13:41,320 –> 00:13:43,160
and you go to OCR and RCR.

308[Melvin Lim]
00:13:43,160 –> 00:13:44,880
There are a lot more government land sales

309[Melvin Lim]
00:13:44,880 –> 00:13:47,400
and government land sales sometimes based on the land plot,

310[Melvin Lim]
00:13:47,400 –> 00:13:49,040
developers are able to build a little bit more

311[Melvin Lim]
00:13:49,040 –> 00:13:50,960
and thus there’s a little bit more transaction volume

312[Melvin Lim]
00:13:50,960 –> 00:13:52,560
in the OCR, RCR market.

313[Melvin Lim]
00:13:52,560 –> 00:13:54,600
So, let’s come back and have a look

314[Melvin Lim]
00:13:54,600 –> 00:13:58,000
at CCR because it’s pretty interesting right now.

315[Melvin Lim]
00:13:58,480 –> 00:14:02,080
Now, if you look at the price trend, you will notice

316[Melvin Lim]
00:14:02,080 –> 00:14:05,000
that if we were to look at the past 10 years

317[Melvin Lim]
00:14:05,000 –> 00:14:07,280
of PSF price movement, technically,

318[Melvin Lim]
00:14:07,280 –> 00:14:11,400
this is the only region in the CCR region right now,

319[Melvin Lim]
00:14:11,400 –> 00:14:13,440
that has not surpassed its last peak.

320[Melvin Lim]
00:14:13,840 –> 00:14:17,120
So, in terms of RCR and in terms of OCR,

321[Melvin Lim]
00:14:17,120 –> 00:14:18,760
now I’m going to bring out the entire map,

322[Melvin Lim]
00:14:18,760 –> 00:14:20,920
OCR comprise of all these districts right here.

323[Melvin Lim]
00:14:20,920 –> 00:14:23,680
RCR comprise of all these districts, CCR comprise of

324[Melvin Lim]
00:14:23,680 –> 00:14:25,960
all these districts, but for the purpose of illustration,

325[Melvin Lim]
00:14:26,000 –> 00:14:28,320
just have a look at District 09 for today.

326[Melvin Lim]
00:14:28,880 –> 00:14:30,120
The PSF has not

327[Melvin Lim]
00:14:30,120 –> 00:14:32,240
surpassed its last peak.

328[Melvin Lim]
00:14:32,240 –> 00:14:33,560
If I were to look at

329[Melvin Lim]
00:14:33,560 –> 00:14:35,800
even for new launches for D09,

330[Melvin Lim]
00:14:35,800 –> 00:14:38,600
PSF has not surpassed its last peak.

331[Melvin Lim]
00:14:38,600 –> 00:14:40,920
If we look at this is D10

332[Melvin Lim]
00:14:40,920 –> 00:14:44,640
of course, there was like a shot here for resale.

333[Melvin Lim]
00:14:44,640 –> 00:14:46,160
But on average,

334[Melvin Lim]
00:14:46,160 –> 00:14:48,680
if we were to combine all the CCR districts

335[Melvin Lim]
00:14:48,680 –> 00:14:53,080
it has technically not surpassed its last peak

336[Melvin Lim]
00:14:53,080 –> 00:14:55,560
PSF compared to RCR and OCR.

337[Melvin Lim]
00:14:55,560 –> 00:14:57,920
Now let’s have a look at D19.

338[Melvin Lim]
00:14:57,920 –> 00:15:00,720
This is the D19 new launch

339[Melvin Lim]
00:15:00,720 –> 00:15:02,800
price movement from 10 years ago.

340[Melvin Lim]
00:15:02,800 –> 00:15:05,680
until today, it has surpassed its last peak.

341[Melvin Lim]
00:15:05,680 –> 00:15:10,680
D19 resale past 10 years, surpassed its last peak as well

342[Melvin Lim]
00:15:11,040 –> 00:15:14,440
D15 also surpassed its last peak.

343[Melvin Lim]
00:15:15,200 –> 00:15:18,240
D15 resale, also

344[Melvin Lim]
00:15:18,240 –> 00:15:19,880
surpassed its last peak.

345[Melvin Lim]
00:15:19,880 –> 00:15:21,880
Now this is also D14.

346[Melvin Lim]
00:15:21,880 –> 00:15:22,960
Alright. And D14,

347[Melvin Lim]
00:15:22,960 –> 00:15:27,240
similarly is in RCR zoning, it has surpassed as well.

348[Melvin Lim]
00:15:27,240 –> 00:15:31,040
So, why is this happening? Partly because

349[Melvin Lim]
00:15:31,040 –> 00:15:33,600
when the cooling measures came about

350[Melvin Lim]
00:15:33,600 –> 00:15:37,240
in two of the most important seasons, 2013 and 2018

351[Melvin Lim]
00:15:37,240 –> 00:15:39,680
and that was the CCR zoning.

352[Melvin Lim]
00:15:39,680 –> 00:15:41,720
So, technically what happens is that when you talk

353[Melvin Lim]
00:15:41,720 –> 00:15:45,280
about CCR previously, a lot of the audiences,

354[Melvin Lim]
00:15:45,280 –> 00:15:48,760
they come from the foreigners investors market

355[Melvin Lim]
00:15:48,760 –> 00:15:50,000
a lot of foreign buyers,

356[Melvin Lim]
00:15:50,000 –> 00:15:52,240
they love to buy properties in the CCR belt

357[Melvin Lim]
00:15:52,240 –> 00:15:54,240
because of good schools, because you’re buying

358[Melvin Lim]
00:15:54,240 –> 00:15:57,080
cream of the crop district in the entire Singapore.

359[Melvin Lim]
00:15:57,080 –> 00:15:59,440
You want to own the Orchard address, Bukit Timah address,

360[Melvin Lim]
00:15:59,440 –> 00:16:02,840
Novena, Newton address, Downtown Core address.

361[Melvin Lim]
00:16:02,840 –> 00:16:05,560
And thus, this has always been a very hot favourite

362[Melvin Lim]
00:16:05,560 –> 00:16:08,080
from foreigner investors, buyers.

363[Melvin Lim]
00:16:08,080 –> 00:16:11,720
Thus, when the ABSD struck with the ABSD for

364[Melvin Lim]
00:16:11,720 –> 00:16:14,600
foreign buyers, definitely in terms of volume,

365[Melvin Lim]
00:16:14,600 –> 00:16:16,320
there was a drop in terms of volume,

366[Melvin Lim]
00:16:16,320 –> 00:16:19,160
there was a drop in terms of the overall demand.

367[Melvin Lim]
00:16:19,160 –> 00:16:22,600
But right now, this season is definitely different.

368[Melvin Lim]
00:16:22,600 –> 00:16:24,880
We have gone through couple of years

369[Melvin Lim]
00:16:24,880 –> 00:16:27,040
that most of the buyers right now, they are coming

370[Melvin Lim]
00:16:27,040 –> 00:16:28,440
from the local market.

371[Melvin Lim]
00:16:28,440 –> 00:16:29,640
It is Singaporeans ourselves,

372[Melvin Lim]
00:16:29,640 –> 00:16:33,520
supporting the non-residential market right now

373[Melvin Lim]
00:16:33,520 –> 00:16:36,280
because more than 80%, 90% of the buyers right now

374[Melvin Lim]
00:16:36,280 –> 00:16:38,120
they are coming from the local market.

375[Melvin Lim]
00:16:38,120 –> 00:16:42,080
We are in a very different season in a sense that right now,

376[Melvin Lim]
00:16:42,080 –> 00:16:45,320
locally, local buyers has formed this,

377[Melvin Lim]
00:16:45,320 –> 00:16:48,320
I would say a self-supporting market kind of trend

378[Melvin Lim]
00:16:48,320 –> 00:16:52,040
or maybe I should call it like a behaviour

379[Melvin Lim]
00:16:52,040 –> 00:16:54,920
in a sense that we are self-supporting our own market.

380[Melvin Lim]
00:16:54,920 –> 00:16:55,960
And so it’s a little bit different

381[Melvin Lim]
00:16:55,960 –> 00:16:58,480
from the past whereby we thought that, you know

382[Melvin Lim]
00:16:58,480 –> 00:17:00,920
a lot of the buyer activities come from foreign investors

383[Melvin Lim]
00:17:00,920 –> 00:17:04,120
but right now, we ourselves are the ones that are buying

384[Melvin Lim]
00:17:04,120 –> 00:17:05,000
into the market.

385[Melvin Lim]
00:17:05,000 –> 00:17:06,920
And this time round, for the past 12 months

386[Melvin Lim]
00:17:06,920 –> 00:17:09,440
I would say that the buying activity has been so strong

387[Melvin Lim]
00:17:09,440 –> 00:17:13,320
in the resale market, that we are seeing pretty crazy stuff

388[Melvin Lim]
00:17:13,320 –> 00:17:14,640
that is happening on the ground.

389[Melvin Lim]
00:17:14,640 –> 00:17:17,680
Because last episode, we talked about landed market,

390[Melvin Lim]
00:17:17,680 –> 00:17:19,080
being a little bit crazy right now is

391[Melvin Lim]
00:17:19,080 –> 00:17:23,920
that apartments market that are in the larger quantum range

392[Melvin Lim]
00:17:23,920 –> 00:17:26,960
especially the larger 3-, 4-bedders,

393[Melvin Lim]
00:17:26,960 –> 00:17:31,080
they are hitting a very popular trend right now

394[Melvin Lim]
00:17:31,080 –> 00:17:33,800
because there has been, I think, in terms

395[Melvin Lim]
00:17:33,800 –> 00:17:38,240
of preferences for lifestyle, for families using the space

396[Melvin Lim]
00:17:38,240 –> 00:17:41,120
within the project itself, people are now thinking

397[Melvin Lim]
00:17:41,120 –> 00:17:42,720
about getting one more bedroom.

398[Melvin Lim]
00:17:42,720 –> 00:17:45,280
People are now thinking about going for bigger spaces.

399[Melvin Lim]
00:17:45,280 –> 00:17:47,200
People are thinking about getting ground floor units

400[Melvin Lim]
00:17:47,200 –> 00:17:50,000
with patio space, penthouses with roof terrace.

401[Melvin Lim]
00:17:50,000 –> 00:17:51,760
They want a little bit more breathing space

402[Melvin Lim]
00:17:51,760 –> 00:17:53,720
amidst this global pandemic.

403[Melvin Lim]
00:17:53,720 –> 00:17:55,920
When you work from home, you study from home.

404[Melvin Lim]
00:17:55,920 –> 00:17:58,080
I think everybody’s now appreciating the fact

405[Melvin Lim]
00:17:58,080 –> 00:18:01,120
that we want more space in a sense, which is one

406[Melvin Lim]
00:18:01,120 –> 00:18:02,880
of the key reasons why there has been a lot of articles

407[Melvin Lim]
00:18:02,880 –> 00:18:05,440
that apartments that has surpassed 2,000 sqft

408[Melvin Lim]
00:18:05,440 –> 00:18:08,240
are gaining a lot of traction and volume.

409[Melvin Lim]
00:18:08,240 –> 00:18:09,960
Properties that are 4-bedders

410[Melvin Lim]
00:18:09,960 –> 00:18:12,640
and above, they’re gaining a lot of traction and volume.

411[Melvin Lim]
00:18:12,640 –> 00:18:14,960
Even three bidders are large in size

412[Melvin Lim]
00:18:14,960 –> 00:18:18,200
are also gaining a lot of trajectory as well.

413[Melvin Lim]
00:18:18,200 –> 00:18:20,920
So, what does this mean for you

414[Melvin Lim]
00:18:20,920 –> 00:18:22,200
when you hunt for property

415[Melvin Lim]
00:18:22,200 –> 00:18:26,080
back to the same sharing that we always had is

416[Melvin Lim]
00:18:26,080 –> 00:18:26,760
that you want to hunt

417[Melvin Lim]
00:18:26,760 –> 00:18:30,000
for the disparity that will potentially happen

418[Melvin Lim]
00:18:30,000 –> 00:18:31,960
in the next one to three years.

419[Melvin Lim]
00:18:31,960 –> 00:18:32,880
Why is it three years?

420[Melvin Lim]
00:18:32,880 –> 00:18:34,840
Because you buy anything right now,

421[Melvin Lim]
00:18:34,840 –> 00:18:37,480
you have three years of sellers stamp duty to fulfill.

422[Melvin Lim]
00:18:37,480 –> 00:18:39,040
You want to buy something that, you know,

423[Melvin Lim]
00:18:39,040 –> 00:18:45,320
“Hey, three years later, will my property be continuously one

424[Melvin Lim]
00:18:45,320 –> 00:18:49,080
of the sought-after products in the market, in the event

425[Melvin Lim]
00:18:49,080 –> 00:18:50,400
if I want to sell it,

426[Melvin Lim]
00:18:50,400 –> 00:18:52,320
because I might want to buy something bigger,

427[Melvin Lim]
00:18:52,320 –> 00:18:54,040
I want to shift to another location

428[Melvin Lim]
00:18:54,040 –> 00:18:55,960
because of school needs and stuff.

429[Melvin Lim]
00:18:55,960 –> 00:18:57,880
Three years later, will the property

430[Melvin Lim]
00:18:57,880 –> 00:18:59,080
that I’m buying right now

431[Melvin Lim]
00:18:59,080 –> 00:19:00,920
or I’m potentially going to buy right now,

432[Melvin Lim]
00:19:00,920 –> 00:19:05,760
be something that buyers will want, or will it go out of trend?”

433[Melvin Lim]
00:19:05,760 –> 00:19:09,160
And, it is a very important decision that you want to make

434[Melvin Lim]
00:19:09,160 –> 00:19:12,480
because always remember, it’s very easy to buy

435[Melvin Lim]
00:19:12,480 –> 00:19:14,840
but when you want to sell in the market,

436[Melvin Lim]
00:19:14,840 –> 00:19:17,680
that property technically
becomes your product.

437[Melvin Lim]
00:19:17,680 –> 00:19:21,600
It must be something that the market wants to absorb.

438[Melvin Lim]
00:19:21,600 –> 00:19:24,800
And it all depends a lot on what is going to

439[Melvin Lim]
00:19:24,800 –> 00:19:27,800
be the trend later on, in about three years’ time.

440[Melvin Lim]
00:19:27,800 –> 00:19:31,400
So I think perhaps it will be good to take a step back

441[Melvin Lim]
00:19:31,400 –> 00:19:32,680
and try to visualise a little bit.

442[Melvin Lim]
00:19:32,680 –> 00:19:34,720
“Hey, three years later, in the year 2024,

443[Melvin Lim]
00:19:34,720 –> 00:19:37,040
how is Singapore going to be,

444[Melvin Lim]
00:19:37,040 –> 00:19:39,320
and what is going to be the population count?

445[Melvin Lim]
00:19:39,320 –> 00:19:41,360
Where will people largely be working from.

446[Melvin Lim]
00:19:41,360 –> 00:19:45,400
Will it be largely still in the workplace, in the offices

447[Melvin Lim]
00:19:45,400 –> 00:19:48,920
or will it by default be like a 50/50 kind

448[Melvin Lim]
00:19:48,920 –> 00:19:50,480
of arrangement where people spend a lot more time

449[Melvin Lim]
00:19:50,480 –> 00:19:52,760
at home and thus when husband and wife spend more

450[Melvin Lim]
00:19:52,760 –> 00:19:54,640
time at home, kids spend more time at home.

451[Melvin Lim]
00:19:54,640 –> 00:19:57,360
Do families want a bigger space?” and things like that.

452[Melvin Lim]
00:19:57,360 –> 00:19:59,480
So, that will then help you

453[Melvin Lim]
00:19:59,480 –> 00:20:03,120
to have a little bit more insight into your buying decision

454[Melvin Lim]
00:20:03,120 –> 00:20:05,400
or what kind of bedroom types to buy,

455[Melvin Lim]
00:20:05,400 –> 00:20:07,080
which area to buy and things like that.

456[Melvin Lim]
00:20:07,080 –> 00:20:10,720
Coming back to this district, sorry I deviated a little bit.

457[Melvin Lim]
00:20:10,720 –> 00:20:14,520
CCR, last region that has not surpassed its peak,

458[Melvin Lim]
00:20:14,520 –> 00:20:17,040
We think that it will surpass its peak

459[Melvin Lim]
00:20:17,040 –> 00:20:21,160
in the next 12 to 18 months based on what we see

460[Melvin Lim]
00:20:21,160 –> 00:20:25,000
on the ground right now, because families are of course

461[Melvin Lim]
00:20:25,000 –> 00:20:28,280
looking at the price disparity between the PSF

462[Melvin Lim]
00:20:28,280 –> 00:20:33,200
of regions on RCR and OCR, they are closing in quite a fair bit

463[Melvin Lim]
00:20:33,200 –> 00:20:36,800
in terms of RCR PSF compared to CCR.

464[Melvin Lim]
00:20:36,800 –> 00:20:38,800
So they are bridging in.

465[Melvin Lim]
00:20:38,800 –> 00:20:41,920
And thus, there are disparity across these three regions.

466[Melvin Lim]
00:20:41,920 –> 00:20:47,640
OCR, RCR and CCR, and when one region moves too close

467[Melvin Lim]
00:20:47,640 –> 00:20:48,480
to the other one,

468[Melvin Lim]
00:20:48,480 –> 00:20:51,520
You will then nudge that particular region

469[Melvin Lim]
00:20:51,520 –> 00:20:53,520
on the upper tier to move upwards.

470[Melvin Lim]
00:20:53,520 –> 00:20:55,520
And then of course, when this moves up,

471[Melvin Lim]
00:20:55,520 –> 00:20:59,000
the lower tier ones will move up as well because consumers

472[Melvin Lim]
00:20:59,000 –> 00:21:02,880
on the ground are always looking at that disparity on, you know

473[Melvin Lim]
00:21:02,880 –> 00:21:05,000
what makes sense and what don’t really make sense,

474[Melvin Lim]
00:21:05,000 –> 00:21:06,840
if they are too close to one another

475[Melvin Lim]
00:21:07,760 –> 00:21:10,600
Before we end the episode, we want to show you

476[Melvin Lim]
00:21:10,600 –> 00:21:13,480
about, back to this first chart that we showed you.

477[Melvin Lim]
00:21:14,480 –> 00:21:17,560
Now, what we notice right now on the ground is

478[Melvin Lim]
00:21:17,560 –> 00:21:20,360
that there are still of course, a difference

479[Melvin Lim]
00:21:20,360 –> 00:21:22,960
in terms of pricing between resale and new launches.

480[Melvin Lim]
00:21:22,960 –> 00:21:25,640
But actually whenever you look at data, always,

481[Melvin Lim]
00:21:25,640 –> 00:21:26,920
we always need to remind ourselves

482[Melvin Lim]
00:21:26,920 –> 00:21:29,880
that the data that we’ve seen on

483[Melvin Lim]
00:21:29,880 –> 00:21:32,000
whether any research tools or portals and things like that

484[Melvin Lim]
00:21:32,000 –> 00:21:35,560
these are all transacted data that has been caveated.

485[Melvin Lim]
00:21:35,560 –> 00:21:40,000
And at the point of purchase, the negotiation of the option

486[Melvin Lim]
00:21:40,000 –> 00:21:42,520
when the buyer and seller negotiate on the pricing,

487[Melvin Lim]
00:21:42,520 –> 00:21:44,160
agree and penning down the option.

488[Melvin Lim]
00:21:44,160 –> 00:21:47,520
Exchange the option fee and things like that, that will take a couple

489[Melvin Lim]
00:21:47,520 –> 00:21:50,760
of weeks and maybe months for the caveat to be lodged

490[Melvin Lim]
00:21:50,760 –> 00:21:52,960
because sometimes buyers might be negotiating

491[Melvin Lim]
00:21:52,960 –> 00:21:56,400
for a longer option period, or even a normal option period.

492[Melvin Lim]
00:21:56,400 –> 00:21:59,680
It does take time for them to exercise the option,

493[Melvin Lim]
00:21:59,680 –> 00:22:01,320
to pay the stamp duty,

494[Melvin Lim]
00:22:01,320 –> 00:22:04,320
for the law firms to lodge the caveat with URA.

495[Melvin Lim]
00:22:04,320 –> 00:22:06,200
And by the time you see the information,

496[Melvin Lim]
00:22:06,200 –> 00:22:09,040
these are all information that are back dated about

497[Melvin Lim]
00:22:09,040 –> 00:22:11,120
two to three months back.

498[Melvin Lim]
00:22:11,120 –> 00:22:12,440
So, what is happening on the ground

499[Melvin Lim]
00:22:12,440 –> 00:22:13,720
right now is extremely important

500[Melvin Lim]
00:22:13,720 –> 00:22:15,480
because these are things that are unseen.

501[Melvin Lim]
00:22:15,480 –> 00:22:18,400
And maybe sometimes you look at transacted data,

502[Melvin Lim]
00:22:18,400 –> 00:22:18,920
you would think that,

503[Melvin Lim]
00:22:18,920 –> 00:22:20,960
“Hey, I want to buy a property at this transacted price”

504[Melvin Lim]
00:22:20,960 –> 00:22:22,720
but always remember when a market is moving

505[Melvin Lim]
00:22:22,720 –> 00:22:25,160
up fast, it is important to note

506[Melvin Lim]
00:22:25,160 –> 00:22:27,840
that there are things happening, already happening

507[Melvin Lim]
00:22:27,840 –> 00:22:30,120
on the ground that are not reflected on data yet.

508[Melvin Lim]
00:22:30,120 –> 00:22:33,280
So it’s very important when you hunt for property, you look

509[Melvin Lim]
00:22:33,280 –> 00:22:35,400
at transacted data as a reference, but you also look

510[Melvin Lim]
00:22:35,400 –> 00:22:39,000
at what is the actual properties that are available

511[Melvin Lim]
00:22:39,000 –> 00:22:39,840
in the market.

512[Melvin Lim]
00:22:39,840 –> 00:22:42,200
And this can only be done through hard work.

513[Melvin Lim]
00:22:42,200 –> 00:22:44,640
That means you have to call up listings

514[Melvin Lim]
00:22:44,640 –> 00:22:46,520
for sale, ask about the current price

515[Melvin Lim]
00:22:46,520 –> 00:22:47,800
the last offer and things like that.

516[Melvin Lim]
00:22:47,800 –> 00:22:49,040
And then do your two sets

517[Melvin Lim]
00:22:49,040 –> 00:22:50,440
of homework on transacted and what’s

518[Melvin Lim]
00:22:50,440 –> 00:22:51,920
available in the market.

519[Melvin Lim]
00:22:51,920 –> 00:22:54,720
And of course, if you work with some of our buyer consultants,

520[Melvin Lim]
00:22:54,720 –> 00:22:56,320
we do all this hard work for you.

521[Melvin Lim]
00:22:56,320 –> 00:22:57,440
And our team is here for you,

522[Melvin Lim]
00:22:57,440 –> 00:23:00,000
if you were to work exclusively with us,

523[Melvin Lim]
00:23:00,000 –> 00:23:01,200
we hunt for properties for you.

524[Melvin Lim]
00:23:01,200 –> 00:23:03,680
We find out what is, of course,

525[Melvin Lim]
00:23:03,680 –> 00:23:05,840
the few different pricing mechanisms that are happening

526[Melvin Lim]
00:23:05,840 –> 00:23:06,200
in the market.

527[Melvin Lim]
00:23:06,200 –> 00:23:08,880
We have our own 10 sets of pricing mechanism

528[Melvin Lim]
00:23:08,880 –> 00:23:11,680
determinant system right here in PropertyLimBrothers

529[Melvin Lim]
00:23:11,680 –> 00:23:15,200
and our buyer consultants are trained to do that for you.

530[Melvin Lim]
00:23:15,200 –> 00:23:18,120
If let’s say you intend to engage our services,

531[Melvin Lim]
00:23:18,120 –> 00:23:20,160
we’ll discuss a little bit more, but then again,

532[Melvin Lim]
00:23:20,160 –> 00:23:23,880
I’m going to flash this email here, [email protected].

533[Melvin Lim]
00:23:23,880 –> 00:23:26,000
You can email us, we can chat more.

534[Melvin Lim]
00:23:26,000 –> 00:23:27,840
Last but not least, before we end,

535[Melvin Lim]
00:23:28,440 –> 00:23:30,200
before we end. Talking
about that region disparity.

536[Melvin Lim]
00:23:30,200 –> 00:23:32,560
We also notice that right now,

537[Melvin Lim]
00:23:32,560 –> 00:23:36,400
resale prices are moving pretty strong.

538[Melvin Lim]
00:23:37,120 –> 00:23:39,800
There has been a lot of interest since last year.

539[Melvin Lim]
00:23:39,800 –> 00:23:41,120
A lot of buyers, they are hunting

540[Melvin Lim]
00:23:41,120 –> 00:23:44,000
for good resale products in the market.

541[Melvin Lim]
00:23:44,000 –> 00:23:48,000
And what we foresee, is going to happen is

542[Melvin Lim]
00:23:48,000 –> 00:23:50,280
that there will be a time

543[Melvin Lim]
00:23:50,280 –> 00:23:53,600
in the next 12 to 18 months, that the resale PSF will start

544[Melvin Lim]
00:23:53,600 –> 00:23:56,640
to edge upwards in terms of PSF and quantum.

545[Melvin Lim]
00:23:56,640 –> 00:23:57,920
And what might happen is

546[Melvin Lim]
00:23:57,920 –> 00:24:00,880
that the new launches will then start to clear out

547[Melvin Lim]
00:24:00,880 –> 00:24:04,320
much faster because as audiences on the ground,

548[Melvin Lim]
00:24:04,320 –> 00:24:06,080
buyers on the ground realise that,

549[Melvin Lim]
00:24:06,080 –> 00:24:07,560
“Hey, the PSF, maybe

550[Melvin Lim]
00:24:07,560 –> 00:24:10,160
for this district and this micro-region between

551[Melvin Lim]
00:24:10,160 –> 00:24:13,040
the resale and new launch seems to be a little bit close.

552[Melvin Lim]
00:24:13,040 –> 00:24:15,440
Maybe I should go for new launches

553[Melvin Lim]
00:24:15,440 –> 00:24:18,040
and maybe I’m quite okay with a

554[Melvin Lim]
00:24:18,040 –> 00:24:19,840
smaller size apartment” and things like that.

555[Melvin Lim]
00:24:19,840 –> 00:24:22,360
So when that happens, what’s going to happen is

556[Melvin Lim]
00:24:22,360 –> 00:24:24,040
that developers are going to start clearing out

557[Melvin Lim]
00:24:24,040 –> 00:24:26,120
their inventory a little bit faster once

558[Melvin Lim]
00:24:26,120 –> 00:24:28,160
their inventory goes low,

559[Melvin Lim]
00:24:28,160 –> 00:24:30,400
they will start to bid for more land

560[Melvin Lim]
00:24:30,400 –> 00:24:32,120
a little bit more aggressively.

561[Melvin Lim]
00:24:32,120 –> 00:24:36,200
En bloc might come back again as their inventory depletes.

562[Melvin Lim]
00:24:36,200 –> 00:24:39,160
And then that will then form a new tier

563[Melvin Lim]
00:24:39,160 –> 00:24:41,920
of new launch PSF price ranges

564[Melvin Lim]
00:24:41,920 –> 00:24:43,640
in the market bearing the fact

565[Melvin Lim]
00:24:43,640 –> 00:24:45,720
that the economy stays stable.

566[Melvin Lim]
00:24:45,720 –> 00:24:46,400
Of course, there are a lot

567[Melvin Lim]
00:24:46,400 –> 00:24:47,360
of different factors when it comes

568[Melvin Lim]
00:24:47,360 –> 00:24:49,560
to property price movement,

569[Melvin Lim]
00:24:49,560 –> 00:24:51,240
but this disparity might happen

570[Melvin Lim]
00:24:51,240 –> 00:24:53,320
in the next 12 to 18 months based

571[Melvin Lim]
00:24:53,320 –> 00:24:55,440
on our own observations on the ground.

572[Melvin Lim]
00:24:55,440 –> 00:24:56,720
So there again, of course

573[Melvin Lim]
00:24:56,720 –> 00:24:58,640
before you make any decision,

574[Melvin Lim]
00:24:58,640 –> 00:25:01,280
consult your own banker, consult your own advisors,

575[Melvin Lim]
00:25:01,280 –> 00:25:03,480
your own brokers, your own agents

576[Melvin Lim]
00:25:03,480 –> 00:25:06,560
and always remember that property investment is

577[Melvin Lim]
00:25:06,560 –> 00:25:10,120
a long-term investment, is a long-term purchase.

578[Melvin Lim]
00:25:10,120 –> 00:25:12,040
The moment you take up a mortgage loan,

579[Melvin Lim]
00:25:12,040 –> 00:25:13,400
you have to fulfill the commitment

580[Melvin Lim]
00:25:13,400 –> 00:25:16,520
of the mortgage instalments for the next 25 to 30 years.

581[Melvin Lim]
00:25:16,520 –> 00:25:17,960
Always make a wise decision.

582[Melvin Lim]
00:25:17,960 –> 00:25:21,440
Do enough homework before you put down the option money.

583[Melvin Lim]
00:25:21,440 –> 00:25:24,320
Make sure you do detailed checks

584[Melvin Lim]
00:25:24,320 –> 00:25:27,840
on your loan qualification as well.

585[Melvin Lim]
00:25:27,840 –> 00:25:30,320
So once again, we hope that you stay safe

586[Melvin Lim]
00:25:30,320 –> 00:25:31,160
and we’re going to see you

587[Melvin Lim]
00:25:31,160 –> 00:25:32,840
on the next episode, my name is Melvin Lim,

588[Melvin Lim]
00:25:32,840 –> 00:25:34,120
PropertyLimBrothers.

589[Melvin Lim]
00:25:34,120 –> 00:25:36,880
Always happy to have you with us on Nuggets On The Go.

590[Melvin Lim]
00:25:36,880 –> 00:25:38,200
Meantime, take care, stay safe.

591[Melvin Lim]
00:25:38,600 –> 00:25:39,000
Bye.