- Episode: 25
- Sep 22, 2022

1 – Melvin Lim

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– Okay, it’s recording already hah?

2 – Melvin Lim

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– [Mikhail] Yes.

3 – Melvin Lim

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Okay, can.

4 – Melvin Lim

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Give me three minutes ah.

5 – Melvin Lim

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(hmmm…)

6 – Melvin Lim

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(Melvin……still there?)

7 – Melvin Lim

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(Is 3 minutes enough?)

8 – Melvin Lim

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(…still waiting… LOL)

9 – Melvin Lim

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– All right. Welcome to Nuggets On The Go

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episode number 25.

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And today we’re going to release the Q2 report

12 – Melvin Lim

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of our real estate market in Singapore.

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So let’s move on to

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this episode.

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Let’s go.

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For today’s episode.

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It’s going to be a short brief,

18 – Melvin Lim

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because we’re going to bring you through

19 – Melvin Lim

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the most important portions of the report.

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And most importantly is that

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this is going to be released on our PLB Insights page.

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And you’ll be able to head down and download the report.

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(You) just need to, of course,

24 – Melvin Lim

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subscribe to our channel,

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as well as to subscribe to our mailing list.

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Because we hope to keep in touch with you,

27 – Melvin Lim

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with all the different kinds of charts

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as well as the main report itself.

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And we hope to share our charts progressively with you.

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And for today’s episode,

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we want to go through

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and highlight some of the very interesting segments

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of the Q2 real estate market trends report.

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We have also released some of the latest charts

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on our propertylimbrothers.com website.

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Head on to the website,

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look for the tools segment,

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you will be able to see this sub-menu called

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real estate charts.

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And from there, we’ll continue to upload some

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of the very interesting charts.

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So just to give you a quick glimpse

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of what it will look like.

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So firstly, our Analytics team and Research team

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have created some very interesting charts

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that look like this.

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So what we are aspiring to do with this chart is to look

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at some of the movements and correlations.

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And if there were to be any correlation

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between (the) Singapore Property Price Index

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of the landed market, the condo market,

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as well as the HDB market.

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vis-a-vis some of the very common,

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and very popular asset classes and commodity classes.

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So for example, in this particular chart,

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what we did was that we pumped in the Landed Price Index.

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We also pump in the Non-Landed Price Index,

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which is a combination of condos and apartments,

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as well as the HDB price index.

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And if you notice,

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there are four different kinds of legends right here.

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Firstly, we pumped in the STI Index,

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Bitcoin, S&P 500, and Ethereum.

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Because cryptocurrency has been

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one of the very common things that

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a lot of people have been talking about

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in the last two years.

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And we want to see

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whether there was any correlation.

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Now of course you might be asking me,

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“Hey Melvin, why are we comparing

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the Singapore real estate price index

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vis-a-vis Bitcoin and Etherium?”

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Now, one of the key rationales are

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because over the past two years,

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a lot of people not (only) invested into real estate,

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but they have also used some of the gains made

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in cryptocurrencies as well as the S&P 500

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or tech stocks.

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And extracting some of the profit margins

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that they have made

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and pump it into real estate,

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And of course, there was a flush

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in terms of the liquidity in* the earlier part of 2022.

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This has been one of the things that we want to track

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to see whether, is that when

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everybody has their liquidity being affected through

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those alternative investments,

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will this cause a dip in the Singapore real estate market?

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And we want to see that correlation right here

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within this chart.

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And of course the second chart

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is that we did a correlation chart to look at

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the three different indexes versus interest rates.

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And over here we’ve pumped in the SIBOR interest rates.

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vis-a-vis the FED interest rates.

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And you can see (that) these two interest rates,

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they run in tandem to one another,

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because Singapore depends a lot

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on the federal interest rate to see

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whether we need to adjust

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the interest rate upwards or downwards.

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So we also want to see

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whether there’s any impact that will be forecasting

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on in the Q3 and Q4 season of 2022.

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And how does this impact

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the three different price indexes.

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Of course something to note is that, real estate

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is more illiquid,

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and it doesn’t mean that when interest rates rise,

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we’ve talked about it

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in a lot of different episodes in the past,

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you can refer to our (previous) NOTG episodes, that

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we want to see

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what is also the time lapse difference

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whether when interest rate rise,

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how long does it take for the property pricing index

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to adjust itself.

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And of course, does it really cost

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an impact this time round?

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Because out of the six, seven rounds,

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only one round during (the) Asian Financial Crisis,

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did we see a downward trend.

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The rest of the seasons

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(are) basically either price stagnates,

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or maybe further increases,

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even when interest rates increase.

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But of course this time round,

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one of the red flags that we notice might happen,

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and of course we’re hoping that this might not happen.

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But we are thinking,

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if let’s say interest rates would to start to challenge

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3% to 3.5%.

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I mean, right now is already at

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2.5% to closing into the high twos,

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in terms of fixed interest rate.

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Let’s say it’s further adjusted to

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let’s say a fixed rate of 3% or

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3.5%,

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what will be the impact

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on our TDSR – Total Debt Servicing Ratio?

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Because, just to give a quick recap

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when TDSR was introduced in the year 2013 June,

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MAS based it on a safe benchmark interest rate of

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3.5%,

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to calculate what is the affordability level of

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the particular borrower.

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So, back then everything was good and fine,

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because our interest rate was overing between 1% to 2%

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all the way since 2013 until today.

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However, if right now, if the fixed interest rate for

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every mortgage is going to be 3.5%,

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or maybe if it’s going to be 4% next year,

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of course we hope that that won’t happen,

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then will MAS and our government adjust

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the base interest rate inside the TDSR calculation method?

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Because if they were to do so,

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what this will mean is that,

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for example, if just 1% upwards from

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3.5% to 4.5%,

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this will mean that every single borrower in the market

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they can technically only borrow lesser.

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And if that were to happen, it might mean that

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you might want to make a decisive decision of,

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should you buy now?

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Or should you wait to see what will be the impact

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if TDSR really were to be adjusted upward

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with their benchmark interest rate.

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Because when everybody’s affordability drops,

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does it cause a huge impact

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in the resale market,

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or in the new launch market?

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And of course, everything is bearing in mind,

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and we hope that you watched the last two episodes

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is that that interest rates just form

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one out of the 10 to 13 components affecting the

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Singapore real estate market.

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Because Singapore is really different.

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And one of the key rationales is that,

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because real estate is illiquid in nature,

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families that have bought in this year in 2022,

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last year, and the year before,

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they’re all being locked in with three years of

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Seller’s Stamp Duty,

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which means that combining the factor that

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a lot of people are buying for own stay,

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and combining the fact that

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everybody is already priced in for three years.

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This, even if there are minute adjustments

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in the interest rates during these three years,

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a lot of families are

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still enjoying their fixed locked-in rates

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over the past one to two years.

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Then it might not cause an impact to them.

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Because by the time,

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let’s say after 2023,

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if the US economy recovers, the global economies recover,

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and let’s say in 2024,

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everything is more rosy and more buoyant.

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Then, interest rates start to drop for example,

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then, (the) property market will then be

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on another new run upwards.

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So I think importantly is just to take interest rates as

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one of the factors and not

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the only factor that affects prices.

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So next, we also want to look at inflation.

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Because inflation vis-a-vis the performance of assets

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across different QE (Quantitative Easing) cycles,

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is one very interesting thing.

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We want to firstly look at when QE happens,

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what happens to inflation.

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When QE two and three happens,

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what happens to inflation as well?

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And when tapering happened during the 2014 season,

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as well as 2018.

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And right now, 2022 is also where (a) QE just started to happen

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after the latest round COVID QE.

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So there’s been a total of four rounds

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of quantitative easing, meaning the government’s printing of money

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basically from (our) federal reserve.

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And then of course,

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this is now the third round of QT (Quantitative Tightening),

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but this time round is different,

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because it’s QT during a high inflation season.

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So there’s the key difference between this round of QT,

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which is quantitative tightening,

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compared to the last two rounds of tapering.

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So this might be something that we want to take note,

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because this round inflation is one of the highest rounds,

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over the past 12 years, ever since 2008.

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00:07:36,480 –> 00:07:39,200

And we also want to see whether does this cause an impact

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in our Singapore real estate market.

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One more chart that we have come across

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is basically the asset performance across inflationary cycle

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00:07:45,560 –> 00:07:47,920

of US inflation rates and SG inflation rates,

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00:07:47,920 –> 00:07:49,640

vis-a-vis our price indexes.

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00:07:49,640 –> 00:07:51,040

And of course we have also listed down

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all the cooling measures here.

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So if you head on to our website,

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you’ll be able to have a look and join some of these charts

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and we will be updating them every single quarter,

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00:07:58,520 –> 00:07:59,760

at four times a year.

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Next thing is that we have come out with

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close to about 20 different charts.

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00:08:03,840 –> 00:08:05,720

And this will all be available

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00:08:05,720 –> 00:08:09,040

in our Q2 real estate trends report,

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00:08:09,040 –> 00:08:11,160

that’s being done by the PLB Research and Insights team.

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So, this time round the charts are very interactive because…

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let me reload this again.

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Basically what you see is that these are all moving charts.

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And of course, if you watch them on our social media,

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these charts are interactive.

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00:08:19,960 –> 00:08:21,200

Firstly, you can play around with them,

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00:08:21,200 –> 00:08:23,120

you can hover around within them,

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00:08:23,120 –> 00:08:25,000

look at the different kinds of indexes.

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And of course we have done up

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00:08:25,840 –> 00:08:28,440

at market PPR versus bubble index as well.

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00:08:28,440 –> 00:08:29,720

We have also looked at some of the

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total unsold units right here,

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as well as the volume performance vis-a-vis the price index.

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And also we have segregated them into different regions,

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For example, RCR, OCR, and CCR.

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00:08:41,080 –> 00:08:44,120

We have also looked at rental distribution and

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the GLS residential land PPR pricing from 1995 ’til date.

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And we segregated them

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from basically 1996 all the way to now.

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And then, we have also segregated them

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00:08:56,040 –> 00:08:58,040

based on CCR, RCR, and OCR.

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Also, we have looked at the

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yearly residential GFA sold in GLS by region as well.

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Also, a lot of very interesting charts this time round.

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00:09:07,320 –> 00:09:09,440

So our team has taken a lot of time and effort

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to come up with these beautiful charts for you,

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so that we can all analyse them together.

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And on our next NOTG season,

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we will be talking about these charts on a very deep level.

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Last but not least is that,

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we are also releasing our new launches charts

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by OCR, RCR, and CCR,

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based on quantum pricing, and based on PSF pricing as well.

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So this is something to look out for

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in the next few episodes of NOTG, as well

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as on our propertylimbrothers.com Insights page,

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00:09:34,040 –> 00:09:35,600

to look out for the download (link) to the report.

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We will be sending out the link very soon

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and announcing it over our social media.

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So thank you for staying tuned with us

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on this Nuggets On The Go episode number 25.

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Hope to see you on the next few episodes,

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in the meantime,

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take care.

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