#15: These 20 Condos Launched Before TDSR Might Be Back In Hot Demand | NOTG S2 E15

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-You know every week I have one off day, right?

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So during the off day, what happened was

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I slept till about 10 (am).

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Went out for breakfast.

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And I couldn’t take it after breakfast.

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I went upstairs again at 11 (am).

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I slept all the way until 4 (pm).

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I missed my church service, it was a virtual church service.

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And then, I played with the kids a little bit. Then had dinner.

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Then at 8 o’clock, I slept again, for the whole day.

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Until the next morning.

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I was like fatigued. Then when I think back, I was like

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Because that week, I had like six home tours.

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So that was like the week that

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I shot six home tours back-to-back, like every day.

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Because every home tour is like you

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exhaust so much mental energy,

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trying to memorise the numbers and everything.

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I was like…

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HAHAHAHAHA

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When I looked at my wife, she was like

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“Why are you sleeping the whole day?” It’s like…

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HAHAHAHA

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Supposed to play with the kids,

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so I paid her back one more day the next week

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brought the kids out for cycling.

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We cycled to Coney Island.

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It almost killed me

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because I just realised how long I haven’t cycled.

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I decided to start really

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to get in shape.

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So I started gym this week

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with some of the young people.

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And I hope that I can maintain it.

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Wish me luck

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(laughs)

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All right, so welcome back to our next episode of Nuggets On The Go.

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In this episode, we’re going to talk about

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the quantum effect that

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was caused by TDSR back in 2013.

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when a slew of cooling measures came out

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during that particular year

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and how it has impacted the market since then.

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And we’re going to talk about

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what is going to be the shift towards 2022.

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And why this quantum effect

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will take place even more so

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but this time around, it’s in the resale market

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compared to the new launch market back then.

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Let’s go.

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All right. So what is this TDSR

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quantum effect that we’re talking about?

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So back in 2013,

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the specific date was on 12th January, 2013, there was this

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slew of cooling measures that came out at one go.

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And of course, that was after

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different rounds of cooling measures that came out

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ever since like 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012.

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So 2013 was the most impactful year

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because that year, when this happened,

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a slew of cooling measures,

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for example, like the LTV for your second property

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dropped from 60% to 50%.

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And the third loan became like 40%.

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Because in the past there was not much restrictions

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on your second and third property

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in terms of the loan-to-value ratio.

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That of course encouraged a lot

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of multiple property purchases

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by property investors.

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And then the ABSD part 2 came out

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whereby Singaporeans now,

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on your second property you have to pay 7%,

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the third property is 10%

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PR investors and buyers, 5% on first property,

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10% on the second property.

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And instantaneously, as a foreign buyer and investor,

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first property for the residential market is 15%.

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But then on 29th June, 2013,

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the government released another round of cooling measures

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and that was one of the most impactful ones.

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Because that is the TDSR – Total Debt Servicing Ratio cooling measure.

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And when this came out, instantly over the next six months,

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a lot of news came out on publications.

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And you can see that a lot of people were predicting

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that the price is going to fall

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by close to maybe about 10% or 20% in 2014, 2015.

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And I think by now, we’re in 2021,

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coming to 2022,

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we’ve already forgotten about all these news articles

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that were about six to seven years back.

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There was also a trend back then

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in a sense that the land bid pricing from the developers

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because everybody’s confidence dropped after TDSR came out,

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land bid pricing actually dropped, in terms of PSF.

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Back before 2013 and after 2013…

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At this juncture in June 2013,

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that was what happened

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on the ground level, in terms of consumers’ and investors’

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as well as the developers’ level.

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This is also considered like the ultimatum of measures

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on top of the ABSD that came out in the early part of 2013.

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This TDSR technically

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affected the affordability of home buyers.

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Now we all have to understand

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that real estate is a factor on the macro level

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on demand and supply.

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Now, everything takes two hands to clap.

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If there’s a lot of supply and there’s no demand to absorb the supply,

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the price will fall.

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If there’s a lot of demand,

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not enough supply to meet the demand, the price will increase.

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This is the law of demand and supply.

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Economics, very real in the real estate market.

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It’s been like this since the start of time.

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When TDSR came out,

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it affected the amount of loan quantum

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that a potential buyer can loan from the bank

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to buy off this property from the market.

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So let’s have a look at this table.

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Before I show you this table,

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there were also articles where Mr. Khaw said that

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this TDSR is a structural nature kind of cooling measure.

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That means that it will be here to stay.

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It’s not going to be removed because that is governing

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our financial prudence.

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And I think logically, this is a very good cooling measure because

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this will then ensure that everybody really

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is able to afford to hold the property from the mid- to long-term

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And not just coming in for speculation to flip the property very quickly.

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I think that’s extremely important because

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if there are a lot of people that cannot service their monthly obligations.

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And let’s say if their properties cannot be rented out

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to substantiate and things like that,

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then that’s going to be a lot of social issues.

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Now, let’s take a look at this table that we tabulated back then,

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during 2013.

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So assuming if a person earns $10,000 a month,

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age of 35, they can borrow up to 30 years.

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Now, in the past, it was also much longer,

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but then now it’s capped at 65 (years) minus 30 (years).

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But now it’s capped at 65 (years) minus your age.

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Max loan tenure at 30 years at the first purchase.

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But of course, when you do a refinance,

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you can stretch the tenure a little bit up to a certain age.

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But that’s another topic altogether.

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When we come back and look at this,

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a person that used to earn $10,000, they can loan up to $1.336 mil

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and they can buy up to $1.67 mil

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assuming they have the 20% down payment.

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If they have a car loan.

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Let’s say they have a normal car

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that has a monthly instalment of $1,000,

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their loan quantum instantaneously drops to $1.113 mil.

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And if let’s say their car loan is much higher at $1,500 per month,

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that instantaneously, also drops further to $1 mil.

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Which then affected the overall

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final price quantum that they can afford.

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Because if let’s say they can only loan up to $1 mil,

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that means, if we work backwards,

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they can perhaps buy up to,

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maybe about a $1.2-odd mil kind of property.

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But compare that to the past, before the TDSR measure,

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where it was based on a base rate of 1.5%

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and 35-year loan tenure,

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compared to the TDSR measure

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where MAS based it on a 3.5% guideline interest rate

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and the max tenure loan of 30 years.

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In the past, the same person can loan up to $1.63 mil

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and buy up to $2 mil. So if somebody walks into a show flat,

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they have a $10,000 salary,

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they can just afford a $2 mil property very easily,

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provided that they have $400K down payment, ready to put in.

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If you can see, from $2 mil, it dropped to $1.67 mil.

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That’s a huge drop because that’s close to about

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30%+ drop in terms of affordability level

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on the overall price quantum of the property.

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And if they have car loans to service, renovation loan to service,

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all these will eat into the loan quantum.

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It will then further drop to maybe,

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affordability of $1.4 mil or maybe up to $1.2-odd mil.

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If they have car loans that they’re servicing.

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From $2 mil to $1.6 mil,

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with car loan maybe at $1.4 mil.

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Bigger cars, bigger loans. Maybe up to $1.2 mil.

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That instantaneously, is a huge drop

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in the range of about maybe 20%-40%,

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in terms of overall affordability.

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So coming back to the demand and supply factor.

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Affordability is a huge factor when it talks about demand

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because affordability is basically the buying power

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of potential buyers that they have

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when they go into the resale or the new launch market.

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If the buying power is affected

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then supply will also be affected because

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the supply of the existing property

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if they cannot meet the demand

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then they cannot be absorbed by the demand,

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then naturally that will cause a fall in prices.

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Now since then, what has happened is that

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this TDSR instantaneously

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shifted the perspective of what kind of properties

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should go into the market if let’s say you’re (standing in) a developer’s point of view.

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So developers, definitely they reacted very fast

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and this is natural because the law of demand and supply will enable

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consumers and suppliers to make adjustments to their products,

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which are the new launches that they’re going to launch

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to cater, to meet the new behaviour by the demand in the market.

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So if let’s say you’re a developer,

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you know that everybody’s buying power has dropped.

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What you’re going to do is definitely you want to create

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products and new launches to suit their buying power.

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All right so I’m going to pull out this data,

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to look at some of the differences in the reaction of developers

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in the types of units that they created

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before 2013 and after 2013.

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And towards the end of today’s segment,

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we’re going to talk about how this is

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going to affect the market in 2022

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and why the quantum effect is going to affect the resale market.

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So stay tune with us towards the end

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All right, where we’ll give you the summary points.

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because this is going to affect

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all of our buying decision and selling decision

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for the next couple of years.

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So before TDSR,

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let’s just have a look at these two very fantastic projects in D20.

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I love these two projects.

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We have sold properties in these two projects before.

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Walking distance, just downstairs is you know, Junction 8.

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Bishan. Bishan is an intersection line.

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North South Line and Circle Line. Great locale. City fringe region.

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We love the Bishan landscape because Bishan has always been

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the birthplace of a lot of million-dollar HDBs.

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And the private properties are also all doing very well.

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But these two projects have been very interesting.

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Same developer

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but before 2013, we’ve noted down the date.

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So Sky Habitat, the land tenure is 99-year starting from 2011.

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Sky Vue, land tenure 99-year starting from 2013.

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But immediately, we can see that before and after kind of effect.

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So for Sky Habitat, the land, of course was bidded before the TDSR measure.

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Just have a look at the sizes of the units.

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Right here. On this right-hand side.

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And how the TDSR affects the size of the units.

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So the two projects are literally side by side.

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00:10:10,440 –> 00:10:13,720
Different concepts because Sky Habitat is a very beautiful project.

248
00:10:13,800 –> 00:10:15,200
With that kind of like.

249
00:10:15,360 –> 00:10:16,760
What is that? Pyramid?

250
00:10:17,080 –> 00:10:18,480
Should I call it the Egyptian Pyramid?

251
00:10:18,800 –> 00:10:20,120
Right? So it’s beautiful.

252
00:10:20,160 –> 00:10:22,040
We sold a 4-bedder there. We love it.

253
00:10:22,080 –> 00:10:23,760
We also sold a 1-bedder there as well.

254
00:10:23,800 –> 00:10:26,600
The layout is great. The sky terraces are beautiful.

255
00:10:26,640 –> 00:10:29,440
We love the fact that almost most part of Singapore,

256
00:10:29,480 –> 00:10:30,440
when we look towards Bishan,

257
00:10:30,440 –> 00:10:33,400
you can just see this such an iconic structure right there.

258
00:10:33,640 –> 00:10:37,480
So the 1-bedder, they were all done at about 710 sqft

259
00:10:37,520 –> 00:10:39,920
but take a look at the 1-bedder at Sky Vue.

260
00:10:39,960 –> 00:10:42,120
They are all at about less than 500 sqft.

261
00:10:42,160 –> 00:10:44,320
484 sqft, 495 sqft.

262
00:10:44,440 –> 00:10:47,720
And the price quantum is vastly different.

263
00:10:47,840 –> 00:10:49,200
How is the price quantum different?

264
00:10:49,240 –> 00:10:52,840
Price quantum for Sky Habitat, 1-bedder, is all above $1 mil.

265
00:10:52,920 –> 00:10:55,920
There are some at about the high $900K, $980K.

266
00:10:56,040 –> 00:10:58,760
It goes all the way up at about $1.3 mil.

267
00:10:58,880 –> 00:11:00,080
You look at Sky Vue,

268
00:11:00,200 –> 00:11:02,440
it is from about $600K+

269
00:11:02,480 –> 00:11:05,800
$700K-odd to about $900K-odd.

270
00:11:05,920 –> 00:11:08,360
This means that when we look at the launch period,

271
00:11:08,520 –> 00:11:10,520
The PSF is actually about the same

272
00:11:10,560 –> 00:11:13,680
because they were all at about $1,400+ PSF.

273
00:11:13,720 –> 00:11:15,320
Sky Vue was slightly higher.

274
00:11:15,400 –> 00:11:19,880
$1,400 PSF, $1,500 PSF. A bit of $1,600 PSF.

275
00:11:19,960 –> 00:11:23,720
But the quantum was different because when it was launched,

276
00:11:23,760 –> 00:11:26,760
Sky Habitat was at about $900K+ to $1-odd mil.

277
00:11:26,920 –> 00:11:30,720
And then Sky Vue, you can get a 1-bedder at about $700K-odd,

278
00:11:30,760 –> 00:11:32,600
So there was a quantum shift.

279
00:11:32,720 –> 00:11:33,920
If you can see Sky Habitat,

280
00:11:33,960 –> 00:11:36,600
you need to have at least $1 mil to buy a 1-bedder.

281
00:11:36,680 –> 00:11:39,800
But after TDSR, to buy a 1-bedder at the same locale,

282
00:11:39,920 –> 00:11:42,160
different project, $700K-odd.

283
00:11:42,280 –> 00:11:45,560
So that instantaneously is a reaction to the market

284
00:11:45,560 –> 00:11:48,320
on shifting and recreating product

285
00:11:48,320 –> 00:11:52,600
that suits the affordability of the buyers, because of TDSR.

286
00:11:52,640 –> 00:11:55,400
Because of that, developers have to think out of the box.

287
00:11:55,440 –> 00:11:57,560
To see how they can

288
00:11:57,600 –> 00:12:00,760
cater to the quantum affordability of the buyers’ demand pool

289
00:12:00,880 –> 00:12:03,040
by creating more efficient units.

290
00:12:03,200 –> 00:12:05,560
All the way from 700 sqft to about 500 sqft.

291
00:12:05,680 –> 00:12:09,120
And that size has been the usual size

292
00:12:09,240 –> 00:12:10,960
from 2013 until today.

293
00:12:11,040 –> 00:12:13,800
And 1-bedders, they are all at 400+ sqft.

294
00:12:13,880 –> 00:12:16,920
There are some smaller ones at about 410 sqft – 420 sqft.

295
00:12:16,920 –> 00:12:20,600
But usually, it’s all hovering at about 400+ sqft, 500 sqft.

296
00:12:20,640 –> 00:12:22,480
If we talk about 1 + study, they will be bigger.

297
00:12:22,560 –> 00:12:24,440
500+ sqft, maybe 600 sqft.

298
00:12:24,760 –> 00:12:26,720
But now it’s all about 500+ sqft.

299
00:12:26,800 –> 00:12:30,280
2-bedders, in the past, it used to be at about 1,000 sqft.

300
00:12:30,680 –> 00:12:32,160
Take a look at Sky Habitat,

301
00:12:32,440 –> 00:12:35,840
2-bedders, in terms of size, it’s at 1,200 sqft

302
00:12:36,000 –> 00:12:39,280
For some of the units, they are also units at about 1,000 sqft.

303
00:12:39,280 –> 00:12:42,280
There are also some units at about 893 sqft,

304
00:12:42,400 –> 00:12:44,160
but then when you look at Sky Vue,

305
00:12:44,360 –> 00:12:47,600
they’re all at about 600+ sqft, 700+ sqft,

306
00:12:47,720 –> 00:12:50,440
some bigger ones maybe 2 + study at about 800 sqft.

307
00:12:50,440 –> 00:12:53,400
But they’re all averagely, hovering at about 700 sqft.

308
00:12:53,480 –> 00:12:55,000
In terms of price quantum,

309
00:12:55,120 –> 00:13:01,560
also a dip from the $1.3 mil, $1.4 mil, $1.5 mil.

310
00:13:01,640 –> 00:13:06,320
Or even at $1.6 mil kind of mark to about $1 mil.

311
00:13:06,440 –> 00:13:10,520
There was this shift, averagely about $1.6 mil to about $1 mil.

312
00:13:10,640 –> 00:13:12,640
And then when you look at the 3-bedders at Sky Habitat,

313
00:13:12,640 –> 00:13:17,000
that was from $2-odd mil to about $1.6 mil.

314
00:13:17,120 –> 00:13:19,040
So when this happened in 2013,

315
00:13:19,040 –> 00:13:23,320
that took place all the way until 2016 and 2017.

316
00:13:23,320 –> 00:13:24,200
If you can see,

317
00:13:24,200 –> 00:13:29,440
a lot of people that bought new launches from 2013 to 2016 or even 2017,

318
00:13:29,480 –> 00:13:31,480
they’ve seen a very healthy profit

319
00:13:31,520 –> 00:13:35,040
because that was the era where units became smaller

320
00:13:35,120 –> 00:13:36,200
to cater to the quantum.

321
00:13:36,240 –> 00:13:39,480
And PSF also were maintained, at a lower rate,

322
00:13:39,720 –> 00:13:40,680
in terms of new launches.

323
00:13:40,720 –> 00:13:42,480
So a lot of people, when they see appreciation

324
00:13:42,480 –> 00:13:45,120
from 2013, 2014, 2015 all the way until today,

325
00:13:45,440 –> 00:13:47,600
they see a lot more appreciation

326
00:13:48,120 –> 00:13:51,800
because that was the immediate impact that TDSR caused to the market.

327
00:13:52,120 –> 00:13:54,000
But eight years later, right now,

328
00:13:54,040 –> 00:13:56,680
everybody has gotten used to the TDSR cooling measures.

329
00:13:56,800 –> 00:13:58,640
And everybody has stopped talking about it.

330
00:13:58,640 –> 00:14:01,040
As human beings, we all get used to things very quickly.

331
00:14:01,080 –> 00:14:03,560
And not to mention, that it’s already eight years later.

332
00:14:03,600 –> 00:14:06,520
So everybody now is already very clear

333
00:14:06,520 –> 00:14:09,600
about the policy and rules governing how much we can loan.

334
00:14:09,680 –> 00:14:11,240
In terms of the behaviour change,

335
00:14:11,280 –> 00:14:13,920
I would think that the TDSR effect has went away.

336
00:14:13,960 –> 00:14:16,760
In how it impacted our loan and LTV ratio

337
00:14:16,800 –> 00:14:19,000
because we’re all calculating based on this method

338
00:14:19,040 –> 00:14:21,320
every single day to determine how much we can loan,

339
00:14:21,360 –> 00:14:22,560
what kind of properties we can buy.

340
00:14:22,560 –> 00:14:26,640
But then, there was another shift that happened in 2018.

341
00:14:26,680 –> 00:14:27,800
Let’s have a look at this.

342
00:14:27,960 –> 00:14:29,560
What was the other shift?

343
00:14:29,680 –> 00:14:32,480
The other shift is that there was a lot of en blocs

344
00:14:32,480 –> 00:14:34,920
that happened in 2018, especially.

345
00:14:34,960 –> 00:14:36,080
The en bloc sales,

346
00:14:36,120 –> 00:14:37,240
in terms of deals announced

347
00:14:37,240 –> 00:14:40,200
since 2017 and 2018 were at an all-time high.

348
00:14:40,320 –> 00:14:44,280
Because of that, the PSF range actually shifted upwards.

349
00:14:44,440 –> 00:14:47,080
So in the past, everybody was talking about PSF ranges,

350
00:14:47,240 –> 00:14:52,400
maybe in the OCR region at about $1,000 PSF, maybe about $1,200 PSF.

351
00:14:52,400 –> 00:14:55,800
But then in 2017 and 2018, because of the en bloc fever

352
00:14:55,880 –> 00:14:57,360
and government land sales and things like that,

353
00:14:57,440 –> 00:15:00,960
the new kind of PSF that occurs in the OCR region

354
00:15:00,960 –> 00:15:03,160
became in the range of about $1,300 PSF

355
00:15:03,200 –> 00:15:06,760
all the way to about $1,500 PSF and $1,600 PSF.

356
00:15:06,760 –> 00:15:08,000
So there was this shift,

357
00:15:08,120 –> 00:15:11,680
from $1,000-$1,200 PSF to $1,300-$1,600 PSF.

358
00:15:11,800 –> 00:15:13,800
Everybody took a little bit of time to get used to them.

359
00:15:13,920 –> 00:15:17,560
So 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020,

360
00:15:17,600 –> 00:15:20,840
were the four years that everybody got used to the new pricing

361
00:15:20,880 –> 00:15:24,640
in the OCR region, in the RCR region, in the CCR region.

362
00:15:24,760 –> 00:15:26,480
We talked about this in the past two episodes

363
00:15:26,520 –> 00:15:28,480
about predicting 2022 market.

364
00:15:28,560 –> 00:15:32,680
We are going to look at this new map in terms of OCR, RCR and CCR.

365
00:15:32,720 –> 00:15:35,760
What’s going to happen in the OCR region, 2022 onwards,

366
00:15:35,960 –> 00:15:38,280
especially when you look at some of the news right now,

367
00:15:38,320 –> 00:15:41,800
where en bloc deals are coming back towards the end of this year,

368
00:15:41,920 –> 00:15:43,520
and next year, very likely,

369
00:15:43,560 –> 00:15:46,120
there’s going to be a lot more en bloc deals happening.

370
00:15:46,240 –> 00:15:49,160
And coincidently, with GLS being bid more aggressively by developers

371
00:15:49,200 –> 00:15:50,640
because their land banks are depleting

372
00:15:50,640 –> 00:15:53,120
after completing most of their projects in the past five years.

373
00:15:53,440 –> 00:15:55,880
We’re going to see a new range of benchmark price.

374
00:15:56,280 –> 00:15:57,640
So in summary for you,

375
00:15:57,720 –> 00:15:59,800
if you haven’t watched the two episodes before this,

376
00:15:59,920 –> 00:16:03,640
OCR very likely is going to be at a new price benchmark

377
00:16:03,720 –> 00:16:05,400
compared to 2018 period

378
00:16:05,520 –> 00:16:07,520
where we’re talking about $1,300 PSF to $1,600 PSF.

379
00:16:07,800 –> 00:16:10,600
It’s then going to shift to $1,800 PSF to $2,100 PSF.

380
00:16:10,800 –> 00:16:15,120
And then RCR is going to shift to $2,200 PSF to $2,700 PSF.

381
00:16:15,200 –> 00:16:18,360
CCR is going to shift to $3,000 PSF to $3,500 PSF.

382
00:16:18,400 –> 00:16:20,520
Maybe even challenging $4,000 PSF.

383
00:16:20,760 –> 00:16:22,360
Maybe. Very possible.

384
00:16:22,640 –> 00:16:24,440
And we’re all talking about the 99-year.

385
00:16:24,480 –> 00:16:26,000
Of course there are some freeholds here and there

386
00:16:26,000 –> 00:16:28,720
which will be maybe 20% higher in terms of PSF.

387
00:16:28,760 –> 00:16:31,360
But we’re all talking about 99-year new launches.

388
00:16:31,440 –> 00:16:32,920
Because of this new shift,

389
00:16:33,000 –> 00:16:35,080
there is going to be a very interesting phenomenon

390
00:16:35,120 –> 00:16:36,280
in the resale market.

391
00:16:36,440 –> 00:16:37,760
And we’re coming to the end of this session.

392
00:16:37,920 –> 00:16:39,520
So what does this mean for the resale market

393
00:16:39,560 –> 00:16:41,360
and what does that mean for you and me

394
00:16:41,360 –> 00:16:42,880
For you and all of us.

395
00:16:43,040 –> 00:16:46,520
Is that if you’re hunting for a property in the market.

396
00:16:46,640 –> 00:16:50,560
If you are in the midst of maybe upgrading from a HDB apartment

397
00:16:50,600 –> 00:16:53,160
or upgrading from another place and things like that,

398
00:16:53,240 –> 00:16:54,160
and you’re thinking about,

399
00:16:54,200 –> 00:16:56,400
“Hey, should I go for the new launch or resale?”

400
00:16:56,440 –> 00:16:58,840
And take note that, in every month’s transaction,

401
00:16:58,880 –> 00:17:02,560
50% of transactions are usually new launches, 50% are resale.

402
00:17:02,600 –> 00:17:04,600
So there are different buyer preferences.

403
00:17:04,880 –> 00:17:07,880
Some people really love brand new products, can afford to wait,

404
00:17:08,160 –> 00:17:10,240
staying with their parents, they can rent.

405
00:17:10,640 –> 00:17:12,640
Some buyers really love resale

406
00:17:12,640 –> 00:17:14,960
because they really don’t like to go out and rent and wait

407
00:17:15,000 –> 00:17:16,680
and things like that. So it’s all good.

408
00:17:16,720 –> 00:17:18,520
Depending on which one you prefer,

409
00:17:18,600 –> 00:17:21,600
but if you’re preferring towards buying something off in the resale market,

410
00:17:21,640 –> 00:17:25,040
I think that 2022 is going to be very interesting

411
00:17:25,080 –> 00:17:28,680
because properties that will be in the lower quantum range.

412
00:17:28,760 –> 00:17:32,480
I think they will really be absorbed, very rapidly

413
00:17:32,560 –> 00:17:36,000
because we’re seeing this new shift in benchmark price.

414
00:17:36,160 –> 00:17:37,680
So let me bring out this table for you.

415
00:17:37,760 –> 00:17:39,000
What this means is that,

416
00:17:39,240 –> 00:17:40,800
with new launches on the right-hand side,

417
00:17:40,840 –> 00:17:41,960
let me bring out this table,

418
00:17:41,960 –> 00:17:44,880
and the new PSF range and quantum range,

419
00:17:44,960 –> 00:17:47,120
because of this new benchmark pricing

420
00:17:47,160 –> 00:17:49,560
that we just mentioned in OCR, RCR and CCR,

421
00:17:49,640 –> 00:17:51,760
1-bedderss at about 500 sqft.

422
00:17:52,040 –> 00:17:54,760
In OCR is all going to be at $1 mil.

423
00:17:54,880 –> 00:17:57,600
In RCR, they’re all going to be at about $1.2+ mil.

424
00:17:57,720 –> 00:17:59,760
In CCR, it’s going to be $1.5 mil upwards.

425
00:18:00,040 –> 00:18:02,040
You can look at what happened to Canninghill Piers.

426
00:18:02,080 –> 00:18:03,640
It’s a fantastic, beautiful project.

427
00:18:03,760 –> 00:18:05,920
Did so well. 70%+ sold already.

428
00:18:06,120 –> 00:18:07,920
In terms of 2-bedders at 700 sqft,

429
00:18:08,080 –> 00:18:09,080
the new price,

430
00:18:09,120 –> 00:18:13,120
quantum price is going to be $1.4 mil for OCR, plus minus.

431
00:18:13,200 –> 00:18:15,200
RCR at maybe $1.6 mil-$1.7 mil

432
00:18:15,240 –> 00:18:18,560
and then CCR it’s all going to be above $2 mil for 2-bedders.

433
00:18:18,640 –> 00:18:20,280
And we move to the 3-bedders,

434
00:18:20,440 –> 00:18:24,080
OCR, usually at 900 sqft now, 3-bedders

435
00:18:24,160 –> 00:18:26,520
are going to be at $1.8 mil for OCR.

436
00:18:26,600 –> 00:18:28,200
RCR at $2.16 mil.

437
00:18:28,400 –> 00:18:31,320
CCR at $2.7 mil, $2.8 mil onwards.

438
00:18:31,400 –> 00:18:33,640
And if we look towards the left-hand side

439
00:18:33,680 –> 00:18:34,960
and we look at the resale market,

440
00:18:35,000 –> 00:18:37,680
this means that if any buyer is in the OCR market

441
00:18:37,720 –> 00:18:40,800
and out hunting with a $1 mil budget.

442
00:18:40,840 –> 00:18:42,000
And they can only buy a new launch

443
00:18:42,040 –> 00:18:44,360
1-bedder in the OCR market,

444
00:18:44,440 –> 00:18:45,640
it would then mean that

445
00:18:45,640 –> 00:18:48,080
with $1 mil, if you can buy a 2-bedder

446
00:18:48,160 –> 00:18:51,080
or maybe even a 3-bedder in some of the older projects in the OCR.

447
00:18:51,120 –> 00:18:52,440
Then all the more you should go for it

448
00:18:52,480 –> 00:18:54,480
because everything is going to shift

449
00:18:54,640 –> 00:18:56,840
one level upwards in the new launch market.

450
00:18:56,880 –> 00:18:59,120
And thus, what this means for the resale market is that,

451
00:18:59,160 –> 00:19:01,560
if you can hunt for something with more bedrooms,

452
00:19:01,720 –> 00:19:04,720
then go for it, because it’s really a quantum play right here.

453
00:19:04,840 –> 00:19:06,280
And if let’s say you’re going for

454
00:19:06,280 –> 00:19:09,520
$1.7 mil budget in the RCR region,

455
00:19:09,560 –> 00:19:12,040
you can only maybe get a 2-bedder for new launches.

456
00:19:12,040 –> 00:19:13,720
Then when you look at the resale market,

457
00:19:13,760 –> 00:19:15,240
if you can get a 3-bedder,

458
00:19:15,280 –> 00:19:16,840
then all the more you should go for it.

459
00:19:16,920 –> 00:19:18,280
Because this quantum play is going to take place

460
00:19:18,320 –> 00:19:20,040
very rapidly in the resale market.

461
00:19:20,040 –> 00:19:22,560
As the price benchmark becomes clearer

462
00:19:22,600 –> 00:19:25,320
once more new launches are going to be launched

463
00:19:25,320 –> 00:19:28,600
and announced in 2022 towards 2023.

464
00:19:28,760 –> 00:19:32,200
I think 2022 is going to be a quantum year.

465
00:19:32,240 –> 00:19:34,680
It’s going to be a quantum play year for resale.

466
00:19:34,840 –> 00:19:38,160
And properties that are in the range of $1 mil to $1.5 mil.

467
00:19:38,400 –> 00:19:40,040
They will all be absorbed very quickly,

468
00:19:40,160 –> 00:19:42,240
even up to $2 mil for bigger units.

469
00:19:42,480 –> 00:19:45,000
Like 3- to 4-bedders, they will all be absorbed very quickly.

470
00:19:45,000 –> 00:19:48,360
And thus, if you’re on the lookout right now, in the resale market

471
00:19:48,440 –> 00:19:50,160
then I think, definitely, don’t time the market

472
00:19:50,160 –> 00:19:51,840
because the signals are very clear.

473
00:19:51,840 –> 00:19:53,200
If you’re planning to sell,

474
00:19:53,200 –> 00:19:55,640
it depends on then what will be the next move.

475
00:19:55,680 –> 00:19:56,920
If you are moving bigger,

476
00:19:56,960 –> 00:19:58,920
always know that a price shift

477
00:19:59,000 –> 00:20:02,840
in the bigger property is going to create a huge impact in quantum.

478
00:20:02,880 –> 00:20:05,440
So if you’re moving bigger, then take action quickly.

479
00:20:05,480 –> 00:20:09,200
If you’re downsizing and you’re sort of retiring, defensive mode,

480
00:20:09,480 –> 00:20:11,200
then you have the liberty of choice

481
00:20:11,240 –> 00:20:13,080
to maybe wait out a little bit

482
00:20:13,080 –> 00:20:15,120
or maybe just to see how the market evolves

483
00:20:15,600 –> 00:20:16,640
in the next one year.

484
00:20:16,920 –> 00:20:17,560
Right so

485
00:20:17,920 –> 00:20:21,720
I think overall, there’s also going to be a last phenomenon.

486
00:20:21,760 –> 00:20:23,960
When we look at some of the comparison

487
00:20:24,040 –> 00:20:26,840
in terms of these three categories of properties.

488
00:20:26,960 –> 00:20:28,240
Just have a look at Mandarin Gardens.

489
00:20:28,440 –> 00:20:29,840
If we talk about the Bala’s Curve,

490
00:20:30,040 –> 00:20:33,480
usually people will observe a few different ranges.

491
00:20:33,560 –> 00:20:34,920
That means where it was very young.

492
00:20:35,000 –> 00:20:37,000
Between 90 to 99 years of balance lease,

493
00:20:37,200 –> 00:20:38,800
and then second point is at 80 years lease.

494
00:20:38,800 –> 00:20:41,520
Third point is very significant at 60 years balance lease

495
00:20:41,560 –> 00:20:43,640
because that’s going to impact CPF usage.

496
00:20:43,680 –> 00:20:46,080
And then 30 years, it’s going to impact basically your loan.

497
00:20:46,120 –> 00:20:49,000
because probably with a balance lease of 30 years and less,

498
00:20:49,160 –> 00:20:51,640
bank don’t loan you. You have to pay full cash to buy them.

499
00:20:51,760 –> 00:20:53,920
But what does this mean is that, if you look at Mandarin Gardens.

500
00:20:54,040 –> 00:20:55,440
Even though right now in the year 2021,

501
00:20:55,480 –> 00:20:58,200
it has already hit below the benchmark of 60 years

502
00:20:58,200 –> 00:21:00,160
it’s now lesser than 60 years,

503
00:21:00,440 –> 00:21:01,920
but the price has also shifted

504
00:21:02,000 –> 00:21:03,360
all the way from 2015

505
00:21:03,400 –> 00:21:06,320
at an average price of $1.4 mil, $1.5 mil.

506
00:21:06,400 –> 00:21:08,680
It’s now all transacting at $1.7 mil to $1.8 mil.

507
00:21:08,720 –> 00:21:10,920
It has also shifted up because the quantum effects

508
00:21:10,920 –> 00:21:12,440
sometimes will triumph

509
00:21:12,480 –> 00:21:15,520
and it will sometimes supersede the Bala’s Curve as well

510
00:21:15,520 –> 00:21:17,760
because everybody’s out hunting for bigger space

511
00:21:17,840 –> 00:21:20,400
plus at the same quantum if possible

512
00:21:20,400 –> 00:21:21,920
because we also have to take note that

513
00:21:21,960 –> 00:21:23,640
although everything has escalated

514
00:21:23,640 –> 00:21:25,120
over the past two years in terms of the pricing,

515
00:21:25,400 –> 00:21:28,160
but our income levels are still about the same.

516
00:21:28,560 –> 00:21:31,320
And thus, most people that are doing the upgrade

517
00:21:31,360 –> 00:21:32,800
are using the cash proceeds

518
00:21:32,800 –> 00:21:35,160
from their current place, their current apartments

519
00:21:35,320 –> 00:21:37,080
because their current apartment has appreciated.

520
00:21:37,160 –> 00:21:38,760
They’re taking and extracting the capital

521
00:21:38,840 –> 00:21:40,360
and pumping it into the next property.

522
00:21:40,440 –> 00:21:43,160
But in terms of income levels for first-time buyers,

523
00:21:43,200 –> 00:21:46,520
it has remained predominantly the same for the past two years.

524
00:21:46,680 –> 00:21:49,680
So this will then mean that, I think for the next two years,

525
00:21:49,920 –> 00:21:52,960
lower quantum properties will be absorbed very rapidly.

526
00:21:53,000 –> 00:21:54,880
Of course, take action if you can

527
00:21:54,920 –> 00:21:56,560
after financial prudence is being done.

528
00:21:56,800 –> 00:21:58,280
I think I’ve come to the end of this episode.

529
00:21:58,320 –> 00:21:59,320
Before we go,

530
00:21:59,360 –> 00:22:00,960
click on the link right down below

531
00:22:00,960 –> 00:22:02,760
because we’re going to give you a free PDF

532
00:22:02,880 –> 00:22:06,000
on a comparison of 20 different projects, island-wide.

533
00:22:06,000 –> 00:22:08,640
We have selected these 20 different projects to show you

534
00:22:08,680 –> 00:22:11,480
the significance of before 2013 and after 2013

535
00:22:11,480 –> 00:22:14,360
in terms of the shift in the sizes of the properties,

536
00:22:14,680 –> 00:22:16,680
the floor plans as well as the quantum price.

537
00:22:17,000 –> 00:22:19,240
And you can take a look at these two comparisons

538
00:22:19,560 –> 00:22:22,200
and then decide what kind of properties do you want to enter.

539
00:22:22,360 –> 00:22:24,360
I think for 2022 as well,

540
00:22:24,480 –> 00:22:26,480
what is going to happen is that because the PSF

541
00:22:26,520 –> 00:22:28,920
for new launches is going to be at the new benchmark,

542
00:22:29,040 –> 00:22:31,200
buyers on the ground in the resale market,

543
00:22:31,240 –> 00:22:32,440
they’re going to look back

544
00:22:32,560 –> 00:22:36,120
at all these projects that were before 2013.

545
00:22:36,320 –> 00:22:37,720
Because their sizes were big.

546
00:22:37,960 –> 00:22:40,240
And because of the pandemic, everybody wants a bigger size now.

547
00:22:40,240 –> 00:22:41,160
in terms of floor plate.

548
00:22:41,320 –> 00:22:43,240
They’re going to look back at Sky Habitat.

549
00:22:43,680 –> 00:22:46,280
They’re going look back at projects before 2013

550
00:22:46,280 –> 00:22:49,760
because in terms of the large size plus the PSF now,

551
00:22:49,840 –> 00:22:51,640
and we add back the total quantum,

552
00:22:51,840 –> 00:22:53,960
it seems to be matching

553
00:22:54,160 –> 00:22:56,320
the new launch quantum already.

554
00:22:56,520 –> 00:22:58,760
So they’re going to look at projects like Sky Habitat,

555
00:22:58,800 –> 00:23:01,400
they’re going to look at projects like Archipelago,

556
00:23:01,840 –> 00:23:04,360
they’re going to look at projects like Duo Residences

557
00:23:04,440 –> 00:23:07,920
because these were projects that were before the 2013 era

558
00:23:08,080 –> 00:23:10,760
with huge sizes for their 1-,2-,3-,4-bedders.

559
00:23:11,080 –> 00:23:13,640
Adding and multiplying back by the current PSF,

560
00:23:14,080 –> 00:23:16,520
their overall quantum is going to be very close

561
00:23:16,600 –> 00:23:18,520
to the new benchmark quantum

562
00:23:18,680 –> 00:23:21,320
of new launches. So lovers of resale market,

563
00:23:21,360 –> 00:23:23,520
I think that’s going to be the behaviour in the next two years.

564
00:23:23,920 –> 00:23:26,120
And when you download the PDF link below,

565
00:23:26,480 –> 00:23:29,080
we’re going to show you 20 different projects comparison

566
00:23:29,120 –> 00:23:31,360
that might help you with your buying decision

567
00:23:31,400 –> 00:23:32,520
just for comparison’s sake.

568
00:23:32,840 –> 00:23:34,720
So thank you for staying tune with us on Nuggets On The Go.

569
00:23:34,760 –> 00:23:35,600
We’ll see you on the next episode.

570
00:23:35,600 –> 00:23:37,320
And meantime, take care. My name is Melvin Lim.

571
00:23:37,320 –> 00:23:38,920
Thanks for supporting PropertyLimBrothers.

572
00:23:38,960 –> 00:23:39,800
If you’re loving our content,

573
00:23:40,200 –> 00:23:41,840
do subscribe to our channel.

574
00:23:42,200 –> 00:23:44,080
Give us a like on this video as well

575
00:23:44,120 –> 00:23:46,080
and share this with your friends if you think it’s helpful.

576
00:23:46,080 –> 00:23:47,160
And we’ll see you on the next episode.

577
00:23:47,320 –> 00:23:48,240
Cheers.