#11: Micro Trends Now in Singapore Property Market | NOTG S2 E11

1[Melvin Lim]
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That’s huge man.

2[Melvin Lim]
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Today, we’re going to talk about in this episode,

3[Melvin Lim]
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different micro trends

4[Melvin Lim]
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that will happen in the next five years.

5[Melvin Lim]
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So for the context of today’s Nuggets On The Go,

6[Melvin Lim]
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I’ve decided to wear green.

7[Melvin Lim]
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I’m trying to blend it with the background actually.

8[Melvin Lim]
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Can you guys still see the nuggets at the back,

9[Melvin Lim]
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that our team has designed, the orange colour line.

10[Melvin Lim]
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I need to put this here because recently, I’ve eaten a little

11[Melvin Lim]
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bit more potato chips.

12[Melvin Lim]
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So I need to cover my tummy.

13[Melvin Lim]
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Today we’re going to talk about in this episode

14[Melvin Lim]
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with a lot of different micro trends

15[Melvin Lim]
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that will happen in the next five years,

16[Melvin Lim]
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with some latest,

17[Melvin Lim]
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interesting news and updates in the property market.

18[Melvin Lim]
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And by the way,

19[Melvin Lim]
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just a little bit of air time, we are coming up with this

20[Melvin Lim]
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special Q3 property research report that is being

21[Melvin Lim]
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compiled by our PropertyLimBrothers Insights team.

22[Melvin Lim]
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We hope that this research report

23[Melvin Lim]
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will be able to add value to you for you to navigate the

24[Melvin Lim]
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real estate trends in Singapore moving forward.

25[Melvin Lim]
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So also, we are coming up with this micro report that will

26[Melvin Lim]
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share with you all the lowest PSF in the entire Singapore,

27[Melvin Lim]
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based on the amount of balance inventory in the new projects.

28[Melvin Lim]
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And we’re going to segregate them

29[Melvin Lim]
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based on bedroom types in

30[Melvin Lim]
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the entire island.

31[Melvin Lim]
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So we’re going to have

32[Melvin Lim]
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different categories on the lowest PSF for 1-bedder,

33[Melvin Lim]
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lowest PSF for 2-bedders,

34[Melvin Lim]
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3-bedders, 4-bedders,

35[Melvin Lim]
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as well as on another category,

36[Melvin Lim]
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we’re going to talk about the lowest quantum price for

37[Melvin Lim]
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1-bedder, 2-bedder, 3-bedder and 4-bedders.

38[Melvin Lim]
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So this is going to be a mini micro report based on new

39[Melvin Lim]
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projects specifically for the entire Singapore,

40[Melvin Lim]
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you can click on the link below to download,

41[Melvin Lim]
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just leave your name, email, we’ll send it to you.

42[Melvin Lim]
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We hope that that adds value to you to look at what are

43[Melvin Lim]
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some of the balance and lowest quantum PSF

44[Melvin Lim]
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and overall price right now

45[Melvin Lim]
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in the last part of 2021,

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because we talked about that wave of perspective from the

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developer’s point of view,

48[Melvin Lim]
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from the buyers who have bought in

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previously to the new projects, point of view.

50[Melvin Lim]
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And of course, to our own point of view,

51[Melvin Lim]
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if you have not bought anything.

52[Melvin Lim]
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And I think that’s a very important thing to note based on

53[Melvin Lim]
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the bar charts of the expected completion of new projects

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that’s going to TOP in the next couple of years and

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previous years, because from that,

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you’ll be able to analyse and understand a little bit about

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the phases of government land sales,

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the aggressiveness about developers to bid for land,

59[Melvin Lim]
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and of course,

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the seasons and waves of different price indexes.

61[Melvin Lim]
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So coming back, that report,

62[Melvin Lim]
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we are going to talk about some of the

63[Melvin Lim]
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lowest quantum 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-bedders.

64[Melvin Lim]
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And I think if you want to go a little bit more detailed,

65[Melvin Lim]
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we can, we can talk about specific regions like CCR, RCR, and OCR.

66[Melvin Lim]
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Maybe we can do that as well for you.

67[Melvin Lim]
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This was the chart that we talked about,

68[Melvin Lim]
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and we think that one of the sweet spots right now in the

69[Melvin Lim]
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last part of 2021,

70[Melvin Lim]
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moving forward to the first quarter of 2022* is that we

71[Melvin Lim]
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forecast and foresee that a lot of these balance new launch

72[Melvin Lim]
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inventory is going to clear out very, very speedily.

73[Melvin Lim]
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And the key rationale and reason is because

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a lot of the resale prices right now,

75[Melvin Lim]
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resale sellers,

76[Melvin Lim]
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even if I were to sell off some of my properties,

77[Melvin Lim]
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I’m going to price it at a future price.

78[Melvin Lim]
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I’m not going to sell cheap.

79[Melvin Lim]
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I’m not going to sell at the current market price because

80[Melvin Lim]
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I know that the demand is very high,

81[Melvin Lim]
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but because of that overall phenomenon in the market,

82[Melvin Lim]
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and that is inevitable because we are having quite a

83[Melvin Lim]
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fair bit of pent up demand for specific type of units.

84[Melvin Lim]
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Especially if you’re holding on to landed

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properties that are very palatable.

86[Melvin Lim]
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You’re holding on to 4-bedders,

87[Melvin Lim]
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that are very palatable or penthouses that are palatable.

88[Melvin Lim]
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Everybody’s looking for more space,

89[Melvin Lim]
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more outdoor space as well as more bedrooms.

90[Melvin Lim]
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So, and especially if your overall quantum

91[Melvin Lim]
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is below $3 mil for apartments.

92[Melvin Lim]
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If your landed is below $4 mil, these are is all very palatable

93[Melvin Lim]
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quantum that a lot of families are going for.

94[Melvin Lim]
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I think let’s take a pause because somebody is here.

95[Melvin Lim]
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– [Daniel] Your energiser is here…

96[Melvin Lim]
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– Thank you.

97[Melvin Lim]
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Thank you for the coffee. Thanks Jenna.

98[Melvin Lim]
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This is Jenna, by the way,

99[Melvin Lim]
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She don’t want to show herself,

100[Melvin Lim]
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By the way, we are having some new PLB mugs, hexagon shape.

101[Melvin Lim]
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You can keep a lookout for them.

102[Melvin Lim]
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Three colours.

103[Melvin Lim]
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Again, a bit of self-promo for merchandise and

104[Melvin Lim]
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balance units are definitely gonna

105[Melvin Lim]
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clear off the shelf, when that happens,

106[Melvin Lim]
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the next benchmark prices for new launch, new, new,

107[Melvin Lim]
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new price is going to be at a different benchmark.

108[Melvin Lim]
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I think in perhaps two years’ time,

109[Melvin Lim]
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everybody’s going to talk about $2,000 PSF upwards.

110[Melvin Lim]
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We’re not going to see anything that’s below $2,000 PSF

111[Melvin Lim]
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because OCR right now, already inching upwards

112[Melvin Lim]
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towards $1,617 PSF for some of the launches.

113[Melvin Lim]
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And I think the next wave,

114[Melvin Lim]
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I mean, we already have some OCR projects that were done $1,800 to $2,000 PSF.

115[Melvin Lim]
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And next wave, definitely I think is very likely that we’re

116[Melvin Lim]
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hitting $2,000 for OCR region.

117[Melvin Lim]
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So I think if you are in a position that you can purchase

118[Melvin Lim]
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or if it’s a second property or looking to,

119[Melvin Lim]
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do a bit of portfolio investment, park some of the funds in a

120[Melvin Lim]
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real estate, a physical asset,

121[Melvin Lim]
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then I think this will be one of the last two quarters that

122[Melvin Lim]
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we can do so.

123[Melvin Lim]
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And one thing that is very important is that if you’ve seen

124[Melvin Lim]
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the news about the latest population figures, so all along,

125[Melvin Lim]
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I mean, since 2013, ever since the White Paper came out,

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our government has projected our population to hit a range of

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about 6.9 mil once we head into 2030.

128[Melvin Lim]
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And that is of course in conjunction,

129[Melvin Lim]
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very gradual increment with an increase in population for

130[Melvin Lim]
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foreigners, as well as Permanent Residents,

131[Melvin Lim]
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very gradually minute increase in Permanent Residents pool.

132[Melvin Lim]
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So we’re going to definitely depend on a lot of

133[Melvin Lim]
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immigration from overseas,

134[Melvin Lim]
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bringing in talents and attracting talents to Singapore

135[Melvin Lim]
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so that our population do not drop.

136[Melvin Lim]
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Now, population is a very important factor in a matured economy.

137[Melvin Lim]
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And of course is a very important factor when we talk about

138[Melvin Lim]
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real estate demand, if there’s no population,

139[Melvin Lim]
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if you look at some of the empty cities in China,

140[Melvin Lim]
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if you’ve seen some documentaries,

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no matter how many real estate that you built,

142[Melvin Lim]
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if there’s no people occupying them, then it’s quite scary.

143[Melvin Lim]
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But in Singapore, of course we are very land scarce,

144[Melvin Lim]
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properties get snapped up, people buy second, third properties.

145[Melvin Lim]
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And of course, as our kids grow up,

146[Melvin Lim]
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they buy their own properties as well.

147[Melvin Lim]
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But importantly, I think what this means is that there could be several

148[Melvin Lim]
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different micro trends that will happen.

149[Melvin Lim]
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So although this time round, this is one of the first year that

150[Melvin Lim]
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our population figures dipped

151[Melvin Lim]
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and there’s no increment as per projected

152[Melvin Lim]
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because of the pandemic, and because of pandemic,

153[Melvin Lim]
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I think immigration is affected.

154[Melvin Lim]
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This is almost like not very possible because we are now

155[Melvin Lim]
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dealing with COVID, the pandemic and then to cross borders is

156[Melvin Lim]
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getting increasingly difficult.

157[Melvin Lim]
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And thus, I think that this is definitely one of the trends that we

158[Melvin Lim]
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need to look out for.

159[Melvin Lim]
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We need to look at next year’s population figures,

160[Melvin Lim]
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although we have a very healthy projection,

161[Melvin Lim]
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but it will be something on our minds to look out for.

162[Melvin Lim]
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And what could be some of the changing behaviours of our

163[Melvin Lim]
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local property market.

164[Melvin Lim]
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I don’t think it will be a huge impact.

165[Melvin Lim]
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I think that once the borders are open,

166[Melvin Lim]
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everything will be back to normal, and of course,

167[Melvin Lim]
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I was also reading some reports that based on percentage and

168[Melvin Lim]
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statistics projection,

169[Melvin Lim]
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pandemic happens like once every 10 years,

170[Melvin Lim]
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like COVID happened in 2019.

171[Melvin Lim]
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I mean the next round that it could happen might be 2029.

172[Melvin Lim]
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And thus over this 10 years, next 10 years period.

173[Melvin Lim]
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I mean, we’re already in 2021, we’ve eight years to go.

174[Melvin Lim]
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If really that projection is true.

175[Melvin Lim]
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Then, how are we going to manoeuvre

176[Melvin Lim]
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or tweak our behaviour in the

177[Melvin Lim]
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way that we transact real estate in Singapore.

178[Melvin Lim]
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And I think there’s a very exciting thing over the next

179[Melvin Lim]
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eight years of what we can do in terms of how we can help

180[Melvin Lim]
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you to actually select, purchase, invest in property

181[Melvin Lim]
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with a really different kind of a visual experience.

182[Melvin Lim]
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And I mean, we could hit a stage

183[Melvin Lim]
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that you don’t even need to really be

184[Melvin Lim]
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at the property,

185[Melvin Lim]
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but based on different protocols on the stage whereby you

186[Melvin Lim]
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view the property on your phone,

187[Melvin Lim]
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you view the property in your living room and

188[Melvin Lim]
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the television, and then to selecting the property,

189[Melvin Lim]
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and then could there be different protocols in place so that

190[Melvin Lim]
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the whole purchase experience is a little bit more,

191[Melvin Lim]
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I would say,

192[Melvin Lim]
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centralised and is a little bit more governed in a way.

193[Melvin Lim]
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Of course, transacting property in Singapore is safe.

194[Melvin Lim]
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I mean, lawyers do the job.

195[Melvin Lim]
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And of course there are a lot of guidelines by our

196[Melvin Lim]
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government, it’s a very safe transaction,

197[Melvin Lim]
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but maybe we can explore ways on how we can do this in an

198[Melvin Lim]
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easier fashion.

199[Melvin Lim]
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Okay so. the third thing that we noticed is of course,

200[Melvin Lim]
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we’re coming out with our Hyundai EV vlog very soon.

201[Melvin Lim]
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I got an opportunity to drive a Hyundai car for three days,

202[Melvin Lim]
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and it’s the first EV car that I have driven in my entire life.

203[Melvin Lim]
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It was a fantastic experience.

204[Melvin Lim]
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And I think I’m falling in love with EV cars.

205[Melvin Lim]
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While I was doing the research on how EV cars might possibility,

206[Melvin Lim]
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might possibly, sorry,

207[Melvin Lim]
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might possibly shape how real estate is

208[Melvin Lim]
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being transacted in Singapore.

209[Melvin Lim]
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And what kind of properties

210[Melvin Lim]
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are we going to select in the future.

211[Melvin Lim]
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I think that impact will come very quickly over the next

212[Melvin Lim]
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five to eight years,

213[Melvin Lim]
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because just imagine in future,

214[Melvin Lim]
00:09:39,399 –> 00:09:41,039
buyers and even ourselves,

215[Melvin Lim]
00:09:41,039 –> 00:09:42,440
we could be asking a question like, Hey,

216[Melvin Lim]
00:09:42,440 –> 00:09:45,399
how many charging points are there in your condominium?

217[Melvin Lim]
00:09:45,399 –> 00:09:47,159
Does your landed property already have a charging point?

218[Melvin Lim]
00:09:47,159 –> 00:09:49,240
Because if you already have a charging point,

219[Melvin Lim]
00:09:49,240 –> 00:09:51,519
if it’s a fitting, you leave it behind,

220[Melvin Lim]
00:09:51,519 –> 00:09:53,879
I can save potential $20K, $25K

221[Melvin Lim]
00:09:53,879 –> 00:09:57,200
instead that I have to incur to install my own

222[Melvin Lim]
00:09:57,200 –> 00:09:58,039
charging point, right?

223[Melvin Lim]
00:09:58,039 –> 00:10:00,399
So we might be asking these kinds of questions.

224[Melvin Lim]
00:10:00,399 –> 00:10:03,960
And if families are selecting his HDB apartments,

225[Melvin Lim]
00:10:03,960 –> 00:10:06,000
they’ll be asking, Hey, is this one of the eight,

226[Melvin Lim]
00:10:06,000 –> 00:10:08,080
HDB estates that the government has came up with the

227[Melvin Lim]
00:10:08,080 –> 00:10:11,480
initiative to make sure that all multi-storey car parks have

228[Melvin Lim]
00:10:11,480 –> 00:10:13,080
more charging points and things like that.

229[Melvin Lim]
00:10:13,080 –> 00:10:16,600
So people will be talking about charging points.

230[Melvin Lim]
00:10:16,600 –> 00:10:20,480
There will also be a secondary set of considerations whereby

231[Melvin Lim]
00:10:20,480 –> 00:10:24,440
they want to look at the amount of population of maybe this

232[Melvin Lim]
00:10:24,440 –> 00:10:25,080
particular condo,

233[Melvin Lim]
00:10:25,080 –> 00:10:26,759
how many people already own EV cars,

234[Melvin Lim]
00:10:26,759 –> 00:10:28,840
because if there are not enough charging points,

235[Melvin Lim]
00:10:28,840 –> 00:10:32,159
then there’s going to be perhaps a queue system whereby

236[Melvin Lim]
00:10:32,159 –> 00:10:34,840
people might have to queue up in order to charge their cars

237[Melvin Lim]
00:10:34,840 –> 00:10:36,639
when they come back or, you know,

238[Melvin Lim]
00:10:36,639 –> 00:10:38,720
how are they going to charge their cars concurrently with so

239[Melvin Lim]
00:10:38,720 –> 00:10:41,120
many people queuing up to charge at the same time.

240[Melvin Lim]
00:10:41,120 –> 00:10:45,840
So these are new things that will come up and because of this,

241[Melvin Lim]
00:10:45,840 –> 00:10:47,559
will maintenance fees,

242[Melvin Lim]
00:10:47,559 –> 00:10:51,080
MCST fees increase in condominiums and things like that.

243[Melvin Lim]
00:10:51,080 –> 00:10:53,919
Will our conservancy fees increase as well in

244[Melvin Lim]
00:10:53,919 –> 00:10:55,440
HDB apartments and estates.

245[Melvin Lim]
00:10:55,440 –> 00:10:58,480
So I think with the introduction of EV vehicles and the

246[Melvin Lim]
00:10:58,480 –> 00:11:01,519
government’s commitment to make this happen over the next

247[Melvin Lim]
00:11:01,519 –> 00:11:02,720
10, 20 years,

248[Melvin Lim]
00:11:02,720 –> 00:11:06,759
this is a very interesting trend that we are definitely

249[Melvin Lim]
00:11:06,759 –> 00:11:08,679
putting our attention to look at.

250[Melvin Lim]
00:11:08,679 –> 00:11:12,399
And one more thing back to the research report that we’re

251[Melvin Lim]
00:11:12,399 –> 00:11:15,000
going to come up for the entire Q3,

252[Melvin Lim]
00:11:15,000 –> 00:11:18,159
we’re going to talk a little bit more about en bloc as well

253[Melvin Lim]
00:11:18,159 –> 00:11:21,840
as government land sales, because we think that 2022,

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00:11:22,440 –> 00:11:26,000
there’s going to be definitely a chance of more en bloc happening.

255[Melvin Lim]
00:11:26,000 –> 00:11:30,240
There’s also going to be a chance of more government land sales tender,

256[Melvin Lim]
00:11:30,240 –> 00:11:33,559
in terms of the amount of attention on tender bids

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00:11:33,559 –> 00:11:34,639
and pricing.

258[Melvin Lim]
00:11:34,639 –> 00:11:37,399
And we might be seeing new highs

259[Melvin Lim]
00:11:37,399 –> 00:11:39,879
and in conjunction with that,

260[Melvin Lim]
00:11:39,879 –> 00:11:43,039
a lot of people have been talking about the Evergrande issue

261[Melvin Lim]
00:11:43,039 –> 00:11:46,480
that’s right now unfolding itself in China.

262[Melvin Lim]
00:11:46,480 –> 00:11:50,559
And does it have an impact in Singapore and last week,

263[Melvin Lim]
00:11:50,559 –> 00:11:53,639
I think our three local banks has stepped up to say that they

264[Melvin Lim]
00:11:53,639 –> 00:11:57,600
have almost zero exposure on Evergrande debt issue.

265[Melvin Lim]
00:11:57,600 –> 00:12:01,120
And I think that’s a very good news for Singapore because

266[Melvin Lim]
00:12:01,120 –> 00:12:04,559
A lot of people are saying that will this be a repeat telecast

267[Melvin Lim]
00:12:04,559 –> 00:12:06,840
of the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis?

268[Melvin Lim]
00:12:06,840 –> 00:12:09,960
Because the amount of debt that Evergrande has is really a

269[Melvin Lim]
00:12:09,960 –> 00:12:11,360
very huge amount.

270[Melvin Lim]
00:12:11,360 –> 00:12:15,279
So will it have like a ripple and a spill over effect towards the

271[Melvin Lim]
00:12:15,279 –> 00:12:16,720
stock market in China,

272[Melvin Lim]
00:12:16,720 –> 00:12:20,000
and then ripple off to US stock market and then eventually

273[Melvin Lim]
00:12:20,000 –> 00:12:22,559
coming down to the property sector

274[Melvin Lim]
00:12:22,559 –> 00:12:24,360
globally or in Singapore as well.

275[Melvin Lim]
00:12:24,360 –> 00:12:26,720
But I think that the most important thing is

276[Melvin Lim]
00:12:26,720 –> 00:12:28,679
that based on whatever that we have shared

277[Melvin Lim]
00:12:28,679 –> 00:12:29,919
over the past few episodes.

278[Melvin Lim]
00:12:29,919 –> 00:12:32,000
And if you’ve listened to some of our webinars,

279[Melvin Lim]
00:12:32,000 –> 00:12:34,879
if you want to look, listen back to our UOB landed webinar,

280[Melvin Lim]
00:12:34,879 –> 00:12:36,120
the link is below.

281[Melvin Lim]
00:12:36,120 –> 00:12:38,679
We talked about the strength of Singapore and what I want to

282[Melvin Lim]
00:12:38,679 –> 00:12:41,559
bring up this, this sort of like a funnel chart,

283[Melvin Lim]
00:12:41,559 –> 00:12:45,799
because at PLB, we have drawn out this chart of factors

284[Melvin Lim]
00:12:45,799 –> 00:12:49,360
on what are actually the foundational points

285[Melvin Lim]
00:12:49,360 –> 00:12:52,799
that actually hold our price very, very steadily.

286[Melvin Lim]
00:12:52,799 –> 00:12:55,840
And there’re close to about 13 to 14 different factors.

287[Melvin Lim]
00:12:55,840 –> 00:12:58,000
And we’re just so different right now.

288[Melvin Lim]
00:12:58,000 –> 00:13:00,279
We think that we’re in a very matured state,

289[Melvin Lim]
00:13:00,279 –> 00:13:03,799
A lot of us that own properties, I mean, we are like 25%,

290[Melvin Lim]
00:13:03,799 –> 00:13:06,919
30%, 35% down paid into the project.

291[Melvin Lim]
00:13:06,919 –> 00:13:11,120
Even if there is going to be any ripple effects,

292[Melvin Lim]
00:13:11,120 –> 00:13:14,320
we are still being blocked by the first line of defence,

293[Melvin Lim]
00:13:14,320 –> 00:13:16,200
which are the 10 rounds of cooling measures that the

294[Melvin Lim]
00:13:16,200 –> 00:13:18,559
government can actually tweak and release and relax a little

295[Melvin Lim]
00:13:18,559 –> 00:13:20,480
bit to resuscitate the market.

296[Melvin Lim]
00:13:20,480 –> 00:13:23,759
And just imagine if there’s going to be a catastrophe,

297[Melvin Lim]
00:13:23,759 –> 00:13:25,440
the very first thing I think the government can do is just

298[Melvin Lim]
00:13:25,440 –> 00:13:28,240
to relax the ABSD or to relax the ABSD

299[Melvin Lim]
00:13:28,240 –> 00:13:29,799
for foreign buyers to buy.

300[Melvin Lim]
00:13:29,799 –> 00:13:32,039
And that will immediately resuscitate

301[Melvin Lim]
00:13:32,039 –> 00:13:34,200
the amount of demand for properties.

302[Melvin Lim]
00:13:34,200 –> 00:13:36,919
I mean this is just one of the things that could happen or maybe

303[Melvin Lim]
00:13:36,919 –> 00:13:38,440
the LTV and things like that.

304[Melvin Lim]
00:13:38,440 –> 00:13:42,360
But I think we out of the 13 to 14 factors in this chart,

305[Melvin Lim]
00:13:42,360 –> 00:13:43,960
which I’m going to flash again,

306[Melvin Lim]
00:13:43,960 –> 00:13:47,039
it is in a very different season right now.

307[Melvin Lim]
00:13:47,039 –> 00:13:49,600
And I think if you are holding one to two properties,

308[Melvin Lim]
00:13:49,600 –> 00:13:52,240
there’s nothing to worry about.

309[Melvin Lim]
00:13:52,240 –> 00:13:53,440
The most important thing is of course,

310[Melvin Lim]
00:13:53,440 –> 00:13:55,840
to do prudent financial homework,

311[Melvin Lim]
00:13:55,840 –> 00:13:58,080
to make sure that you don’t overburden

312[Melvin Lim]
00:13:58,080 –> 00:14:00,279
yourself with the monthly instalment,

313[Melvin Lim]
00:14:00,279 –> 00:14:02,120
have a buffer for at least

314[Melvin Lim]
00:14:02,120 –> 00:14:03,879
six to 12 months for monthly instalments

315[Melvin Lim]
00:14:03,879 –> 00:14:05,320
whenever you make a property purchase,

316[Melvin Lim]
00:14:05,320 –> 00:14:07,639
not to over leverage yourself,

317[Melvin Lim]
00:14:07,639 –> 00:14:09,639
not to over commit yourself, make sure your income,

318[Melvin Lim]
00:14:09,639 –> 00:14:12,759
your job is stable, your business is doing okay before you

319[Melvin Lim]
00:14:12,759 –> 00:14:15,639
commit to a second or third property purchase.

320[Melvin Lim]
00:14:15,639 –> 00:14:18,039
All right so today’s episode is basically to round up

321[Melvin Lim]
00:14:18,039 –> 00:14:20,320
some of the micro trends that’s happening in the economy,

322[Melvin Lim]
00:14:20,320 –> 00:14:22,519
and we hope to see you on episode number 12*.

323[Melvin Lim]
00:14:22,519 –> 00:14:23,840
Meantime, stay safe, take care.

324[Melvin Lim]
00:14:23,840 –> 00:14:25,639
My name is Melvin Lim and see you on the next

325[Melvin Lim]
00:14:25,639 –> 00:14:27,279
Nuggets On The Go, cheers.