Keeping it cool with the latest Cooling Measures + Upcoming trends | Melvin Lim | NOTG Ep26

00:00:00,000 –> 00:00:00,840
– All right, everyone.

2
00:00:00,840 –> 00:00:02,880
Welcome to the next episode of Nuggets On The Go.

3
00:00:02,880 –> 00:00:04,320
Now for today’s episode we’re going to do

4
00:00:04,320 –> 00:00:07,640
a special recap segment of one of the webinars

5
00:00:07,640 –> 00:00:10,120
that we’ve done at the early part of October

6
00:00:10,120 –> 00:00:12,600
in relation to the latest round cooling measures

7
00:00:12,600 –> 00:00:15,600
as well as the key trends that might be happening

8
00:00:15,600 –> 00:00:17,560
for the next 12 to 18 months

9
00:00:17,560 –> 00:00:19,040
based on our PLB’s Research Team

10
00:00:19,040 –> 00:00:20,400
and Inside Sales Team analysis.

11
00:00:20,400 –> 00:00:23,280
So this webinar was where I was invited as a guest speaker

12
00:00:23,280 –> 00:00:25,800
on the property segment with one of the event partners.

13
00:00:25,800 –> 00:00:27,600
The total length of this webinar is about 1 hour

14
00:00:27,600 –> 00:00:29,040
and 20 minutes.

15
00:00:29,040 –> 00:00:31,760
So do stay tuned with us through the entire webinar.

16
00:00:31,760 –> 00:00:33,280
1 hour 30 minutes ah?

17
00:00:33,280 –> 00:00:34,120
Okay.

18
00:00:34,120 –> 00:00:35,640
Cephas just told me it’s 1 hour 30 minutes.

19
00:00:35,640 –> 00:00:37,800
However Cephas has really broken down everything

20
00:00:37,800 –> 00:00:40,680
part by part into very various time-stamped segments.

21
00:00:40,680 –> 00:00:42,440
I think you can also jump to the particular segment

22
00:00:42,440 –> 00:00:43,280
that you’re keen in,

23
00:00:43,280 –> 00:00:45,360
but it’ll be good to start from the front

24
00:00:45,360 –> 00:00:46,560
because everything that we’ve spoken about

25
00:00:46,560 –> 00:00:49,560
is in relation to the entire property market,

26
00:00:49,560 –> 00:00:51,600
especially I think a lot of you have concerns

27
00:00:51,600 –> 00:00:54,520
about the latest round of threshold implementation

28
00:00:54,520 –> 00:00:56,480
that was back in 16 December 2021

29
00:00:56,480 –> 00:00:57,840
plus the latest round

30
00:00:57,840 –> 00:00:59,880
whereby the stress test has increased

31
00:00:59,880 –> 00:01:04,480
from 3.5% to 4%, as well as the 15 months cooling off period,

32
00:01:04,480 –> 00:01:06,720
if somebody would downgrade from a private property

33
00:01:06,720 –> 00:01:07,800
to a HDB apartment.

34
00:01:07,800 –> 00:01:09,560
So we’re going to talk about all these new measures

35
00:01:09,560 –> 00:01:11,720
together with the rest of the analysis,

36
00:01:11,720 –> 00:01:13,720
and the the latest chart that we have come up with

37
00:01:13,720 –> 00:01:15,080
by our research team.

38
00:01:35,360 –> 00:01:36,600
Hi, good afternoon everyone

39
00:01:36,600 –> 00:01:39,600
and welcome to the Property Summit 2022.

40
00:01:39,600 –> 00:01:42,960
I’m very honoured to be invited by 8VI for this event.

41
00:01:42,960 –> 00:01:45,680
Today’s my segment talking about the Singapore’s real estate

42
00:01:45,680 –> 00:01:47,640
market trends and opportunities.

43
00:01:47,640 –> 00:01:50,040
We’re going to have a lot of interesting concepts

44
00:01:50,040 –> 00:01:51,200
to share with everybody today

45
00:01:51,200 –> 00:01:53,120
and I hope that you will be able to take away

46
00:01:53,120 –> 00:01:55,240
some tips and value from today’s webinar.

47
00:01:55,240 –> 00:01:56,080
Before I kick-start,

48
00:01:56,080 –> 00:01:58,920
just a quick disclaimer on some of the contents

49
00:01:58,920 –> 00:01:59,840
that we’re going to share.

50
00:01:59,840 –> 00:02:02,320
So a lot of the data are being populated

51
00:02:02,320 –> 00:02:03,960
by our PLB’s Research Team

52
00:02:03,960 –> 00:02:06,200
as well as our own opinions and judgment on the ground.

53
00:02:06,200 –> 00:02:08,680
So do note that property investment is a huge investment.

54
00:02:08,680 –> 00:02:11,360
Do consult with your various consultants,

55
00:02:11,360 –> 00:02:12,720
bankers, as well as your own brokers

56
00:02:12,720 –> 00:02:14,800
before you make a decisive decision

57
00:02:14,800 –> 00:02:16,400
on any property investment.

58
00:02:16,400 –> 00:02:19,320
2022 has been a very confusing year,

59
00:02:19,320 –> 00:02:21,480
and how we’re going to structure today’s session

60
00:02:21,480 –> 00:02:23,520
is to break down all the different trends

61
00:02:23,520 –> 00:02:25,640
that we have observed over the past years,

62
00:02:25,640 –> 00:02:27,880
and most importantly is to decipher

63
00:02:27,880 –> 00:02:31,440
what will be the opportunity moving on towards 2022

64
00:02:31,440 –> 00:02:32,960
and into 2023.

65
00:02:32,960 –> 00:02:35,440
Why has it been so-called, a confusing year?

66
00:02:35,440 –> 00:02:38,480
Now that’s precisely because of inflation rising globally,

67
00:02:38,480 –> 00:02:40,920
as we can see from a lot of data points,

68
00:02:40,920 –> 00:02:42,960
US inflation is at an all time high.

69
00:02:42,960 –> 00:02:44,760
Just the latest data that’s been published

70
00:02:44,760 –> 00:02:48,160
in August 2022, that was at 8.3%.

71
00:02:48,160 –> 00:02:50,080
Singapore is at 7.5%.

72
00:02:50,080 –> 00:02:51,880
As the time that we speak right now,

73
00:02:51,880 –> 00:02:54,800
interest rates, of course, are an all time high

74
00:02:54,800 –> 00:02:55,640
right here in Singapore.

75
00:02:55,640 –> 00:02:57,960
So just deciphering some of the news

76
00:02:57,960 –> 00:02:59,720
that we have crafted over the past month

77
00:02:59,720 –> 00:03:01,880
is that in the latest month,

78
00:03:01,880 –> 00:03:04,920
mortgage rates are also entering into the new era

79
00:03:04,920 –> 00:03:06,320
where some of the banks has to really remove

80
00:03:06,320 –> 00:03:08,360
their fixed interest rate.

81
00:03:08,360 –> 00:03:10,520
So what is going to happen in the real estate market

82
00:03:10,520 –> 00:03:11,720
in Singapore moving forward?

83
00:03:11,720 –> 00:03:13,920
I think a lot of people are of course a little bit worried

84
00:03:13,920 –> 00:03:14,880
and of course they’re contemplating

85
00:03:14,880 –> 00:03:17,800
whether they should enter into the market right now

86
00:03:17,800 –> 00:03:20,160
or they should adopt a wait-and-see kind of approach.

87
00:03:20,160 –> 00:03:22,440
There’s also a lot of news about this,

88
00:03:22,440 –> 00:03:24,080
and of course this is the one that we just mentioned

89
00:03:24,080 –> 00:03:27,720
about UOB and DBS seizing fixed rate home loans for now,

90
00:03:27,720 –> 00:03:30,840
and of course Singapore is closely linked to the US market,

91
00:03:30,840 –> 00:03:32,000
so when US Federal Reserve,

92
00:03:32,000 –> 00:03:33,480
they just announced about

93
00:03:33,480 –> 00:03:35,240
their latest fourth consecutive round

94
00:03:35,240 –> 00:03:37,000
in terms of interest rate height,

95
00:03:37,000 –> 00:03:39,320
this has been of course the impact in the market.

96
00:03:39,320 –> 00:03:41,560
And whatever that is happening in the US market,

97
00:03:41,560 –> 00:03:44,160
it will then translate almost directly

98
00:03:44,160 –> 00:03:45,120
into the Singapore market,

99
00:03:45,120 –> 00:03:47,520
because our interest rates are packed pretty closely

100
00:03:47,520 –> 00:03:50,600
to what actions of Federal Reserve have in the US.

101
00:03:50,600 –> 00:03:51,960
Now of course, this is a chart

102
00:03:51,960 –> 00:03:53,880
that I think a lot of people have already seen.

103
00:03:53,880 –> 00:03:57,520
This is now the very sharp rise in terms of the federal funds rate

104
00:03:57,520 –> 00:04:01,040
is causing a lot of, of course, implications globally.

105
00:04:01,040 –> 00:04:03,000
FED is of course planning to reduce balance sheets

106
00:04:03,000 –> 00:04:04,000
by $95 bil a month.

107
00:04:04,000 –> 00:04:06,360
The confusing point right here

108
00:04:06,360 –> 00:04:08,200
is that why is it that home prices Singapore

109
00:04:08,200 –> 00:04:11,880
have continued to move upwards in terms of its trending,

110
00:04:11,880 –> 00:04:13,120
not just after the pandemic,

111
00:04:13,120 –> 00:04:15,800
but even at the start of 2022

112
00:04:15,800 –> 00:04:18,320
when we experienced a few key things.

113
00:04:18,320 –> 00:04:20,480
Of course, number one is the war in Ukraine.

114
00:04:20,480 –> 00:04:22,120
Number two is of course the dip

115
00:04:22,120 –> 00:04:24,000
in terms of cryptocurrency pricing

116
00:04:24,000 –> 00:04:25,160
as well as the tax stock pricing.

117
00:04:25,160 –> 00:04:27,840
Number three is that with a looming recession

118
00:04:27,840 –> 00:04:28,680
around the corner,

119
00:04:28,680 –> 00:04:30,000
the strange thing is that we’re now

120
00:04:30,000 –> 00:04:32,040
into the 9th month of 2022,

121
00:04:32,040 –> 00:04:34,600
but yet all pricing across all spectrum

122
00:04:34,600 –> 00:04:36,880
in terms of HDB, condos and landed market,

123
00:04:36,880 –> 00:04:39,240
they have still continued to be in the upward trend.

124
00:04:39,240 –> 00:04:41,080
This is of course one of the news that we put in August

125
00:04:41,080 –> 00:04:43,080
with rising interest rates.

126
00:04:43,080 –> 00:04:46,320
A lot of people are worried about whether will the lowering

127
00:04:46,320 –> 00:04:48,320
of the transaction volume this year

128
00:04:48,320 –> 00:04:50,000
cause a downward trend in terms of pricing.

129
00:04:50,000 –> 00:04:52,520
Why is this a very important implication

130
00:04:52,520 –> 00:04:54,360
is because everybody that’s into,

131
00:04:54,360 –> 00:04:56,280
whether you’re buying a property for your own stay

132
00:04:56,280 –> 00:04:57,400
or whether you’re buying additional properties

133
00:04:57,400 –> 00:04:58,680
for investment,

134
00:04:58,680 –> 00:05:01,480
everybody wants to enter at a correct pricing

135
00:05:01,480 –> 00:05:03,720
and they want to be able to buy into something

136
00:05:03,720 –> 00:05:06,240
that will have a better return on investment

137
00:05:06,240 –> 00:05:08,640
or they want their capital basically to grow

138
00:05:08,640 –> 00:05:09,760
over the shortest period of time.

139
00:05:09,760 –> 00:05:11,520
These are of course, on the confusing news,

140
00:05:11,520 –> 00:05:13,480
because the confusion starts

141
00:05:13,480 –> 00:05:16,680
when there are this kind of macro factors,

142
00:05:16,680 –> 00:05:17,880
but at the same time,

143
00:05:17,880 –> 00:05:20,600
condo prices still continue to go up,

144
00:05:20,600 –> 00:05:22,760
and this is already the 24th straight month.

145
00:05:22,760 –> 00:05:25,440
In fact, as we move into August and September,

146
00:05:25,440 –> 00:05:27,560
price index is still on the upward momentum

147
00:05:27,560 –> 00:05:28,680
for private properties.

148
00:05:28,680 –> 00:05:31,160
HDBs, of course, have also followed suit.

149
00:05:31,160 –> 00:05:34,280
HDB pricing has also increased quarter-on-quarter,

150
00:05:34,280 –> 00:05:35,240
month-on-month.

151
00:05:35,240 –> 00:05:36,320
These are some of the key trends

152
00:05:36,320 –> 00:05:37,200
that are happening right now

153
00:05:37,200 –> 00:05:39,320
is that the strange part

154
00:05:39,320 –> 00:05:40,880
about some of the new launch pricing

155
00:05:40,880 –> 00:05:44,280
is that OCR and RCR pricing are getting very close

156
00:05:44,280 –> 00:05:46,160
to the CCR pricing momentum

157
00:05:46,160 –> 00:05:48,400
and later we will decipher this together.

158
00:05:48,400 –> 00:05:50,400
New launches have been performing very well.

159
00:05:50,400 –> 00:05:51,400
In fact over the past month,

160
00:05:51,400 –> 00:05:53,320
if you look at the amount of percentage

161
00:05:53,320 –> 00:05:55,920
sought at Sky Eden, AMO Residence,

162
00:05:55,920 –> 00:05:57,200
of course, Lentor Modern,

163
00:05:57,200 –> 00:06:00,400
it has really satisfied developers’ confidence

164
00:06:00,400 –> 00:06:02,120
in terms of bidding for more land,

165
00:06:02,120 –> 00:06:04,080
and later, we’ll also talk about that as well,

166
00:06:04,080 –> 00:06:06,280
whether is there a supply kind of issue

167
00:06:06,280 –> 00:06:08,240
or is that more of a demand kind of momentum in the market.

168
00:06:08,240 –> 00:06:10,760
En bloc is also surprisingly back.

169
00:06:10,760 –> 00:06:12,320
Later, we’ll share one very interesting chart

170
00:06:12,320 –> 00:06:14,040
talking about en bloc season

171
00:06:14,040 –> 00:06:18,360
and really how to look at future trending moving forward.

172
00:06:18,360 –> 00:06:20,760
So en bloc of course has come back pretty strongly

173
00:06:20,760 –> 00:06:23,040
at the start of this year. In recent bids

174
00:06:23,040 –> 00:06:24,240
for government land sales,

175
00:06:24,240 –> 00:06:27,080
we can also see the level of developers’ confidence

176
00:06:27,080 –> 00:06:29,520
along with the amount of bid and bid pricing.

177
00:06:29,520 –> 00:06:31,160
Now, the most surprising part

178
00:06:31,160 –> 00:06:33,280
has been the local rental prices.

179
00:06:33,280 –> 00:06:36,160
This has really taken a lot of investors by surprise.

180
00:06:36,160 –> 00:06:37,120
It has also been a comfort factor

181
00:06:37,120 –> 00:06:39,320
for existing property owners.

182
00:06:39,320 –> 00:06:42,240
In fact, for owners that have held onto two,

183
00:06:42,240 –> 00:06:43,400
three or four properties,

184
00:06:43,400 –> 00:06:46,120
this has been the main decisive factor

185
00:06:46,120 –> 00:06:48,680
that they are not going to sell the property

186
00:06:48,680 –> 00:06:51,000
in any kind of fire-sale kind of behaviour

187
00:06:51,000 –> 00:06:53,600
or they’re also not thinking about selling, moving forward.

188
00:06:53,600 –> 00:06:55,520
The key reason is because the increment

189
00:06:55,520 –> 00:06:58,000
in the past 18 months in terms rental pricing

190
00:06:58,000 –> 00:07:00,080
has created a new level of cushion

191
00:07:00,080 –> 00:07:02,080
for their current monthly instalment.

192
00:07:02,080 –> 00:07:04,320
This then bring on an additional layer of factors

193
00:07:04,320 –> 00:07:06,240
that there’s no need for existing property owners

194
00:07:06,240 –> 00:07:07,920
to put their property in the market hastily.

195
00:07:07,920 –> 00:07:10,400
Singapore economy is showing sign of slowing.

196
00:07:10,400 –> 00:07:12,400
We’re going to have, of course a lot of these called news

197
00:07:12,400 –> 00:07:13,640
that you’re going to see in 2022,

198
00:07:13,640 –> 00:07:15,040
and moving into 2023.

199
00:07:15,040 –> 00:07:18,000
Recently, there’s also news about some layoffs

200
00:07:18,000 –> 00:07:19,000
that is commencing.

201
00:07:19,000 –> 00:07:20,200
There’s also conflicting news

202
00:07:20,200 –> 00:07:22,200
talking about that Singapore is not expected

203
00:07:22,200 –> 00:07:24,520
to face recession despite a downward trend

204
00:07:24,520 –> 00:07:25,640
in our growth rates.

205
00:07:25,640 –> 00:07:27,440
This very real fact that Singapore

206
00:07:27,440 –> 00:07:30,120
is now already having a status of a safe haven.

207
00:07:30,120 –> 00:07:33,240
Retrenchment level, also pretty low in Q2

208
00:07:33,240 –> 00:07:36,000
and job vacancies have really eased following the opening up

209
00:07:36,000 –> 00:07:37,680
after the COVID era in Singapore.

210
00:07:37,680 –> 00:07:40,240
So this is the latest chart on Singapore’s GDP growth

211
00:07:40,240 –> 00:07:41,280
as well as the unemployment rate.

212
00:07:41,280 –> 00:07:43,920
As you can see, it’s of course trending downward

213
00:07:43,920 –> 00:07:46,120
and I think one of the key factors

214
00:07:46,120 –> 00:07:49,480
is that Singapore’s economy somehow has been behaving

215
00:07:49,480 –> 00:07:52,880
a little bit differently despite the global macro factors.

216
00:07:52,880 –> 00:07:55,640
So is this a very scary macro economic outlook

217
00:07:55,640 –> 00:07:56,960
for the year 2022?

218
00:07:56,960 –> 00:07:58,520
Indeed, a lot of people are very concerned

219
00:07:58,520 –> 00:07:59,800
about increasing interest rate

220
00:07:59,800 –> 00:08:03,160
and how it can potentially induce a drop in home prices.

221
00:08:03,160 –> 00:08:05,360
Now, the very basic fact is that all of us,

222
00:08:05,360 –> 00:08:08,120
whether it comes to buying a property for own stay

223
00:08:08,120 –> 00:08:09,280
or for investment,

224
00:08:09,280 –> 00:08:12,480
we want to enter the market at the correct pricing.

225
00:08:12,480 –> 00:08:13,520
And what do we mean by correct pricing,

226
00:08:13,520 –> 00:08:15,120
is that we hope to enter at a price

227
00:08:15,120 –> 00:08:16,600
that is not at its peak level,

228
00:08:16,600 –> 00:08:20,320
with still room to grow in terms of capital appreciation,

229
00:08:20,320 –> 00:08:22,480
and that is definitely the fundamental reason

230
00:08:22,480 –> 00:08:24,840
all property owners want to have.

231
00:08:24,840 –> 00:08:25,680
You might be thinking,

232
00:08:25,680 –> 00:08:27,440
“Hey, I just want to buy a property for own stay.”

233
00:08:27,440 –> 00:08:29,960
Yes, that is of course to fulfil our personal needs,

234
00:08:29,960 –> 00:08:30,840
our families’ needs,

235
00:08:30,840 –> 00:08:32,920
but the beauty is that if all of us

236
00:08:32,920 –> 00:08:36,320
can enter into property to fulfil the objective

237
00:08:36,320 –> 00:08:37,360
of meeting our families’ needs,

238
00:08:37,360 –> 00:08:38,960
but yet at the same time staying in a property

239
00:08:38,960 –> 00:08:42,240
that has its potential to appreciate

240
00:08:42,240 –> 00:08:43,320
while we are living there,

241
00:08:43,320 –> 00:08:46,320
that is of course a double kind of objective being met.

242
00:08:46,320 –> 00:08:47,480
We want to have a look at this chart,

243
00:08:47,480 –> 00:08:49,040
because this is really interesting chart

244
00:08:49,040 –> 00:08:51,120
to decipher what is happening in Singapore.

245
00:08:51,120 –> 00:08:53,800
Is the Singapore property market a little bit different

246
00:08:53,800 –> 00:08:56,280
from other markets in the region or globally?

247
00:08:56,280 –> 00:08:58,680
So based on the past seven rounds

248
00:08:58,680 –> 00:08:59,720
of interest rate increment,

249
00:08:59,720 –> 00:09:02,600
surprisingly, if you look at the green colour arrow,

250
00:09:02,600 –> 00:09:04,760
you will notice that six rounds

251
00:09:04,760 –> 00:09:06,480
with interest rate increment,

252
00:09:06,480 –> 00:09:09,960
surprisingly, our property price index rise in tandem.

253
00:09:09,960 –> 00:09:11,000
There’s only one round,

254
00:09:11,000 –> 00:09:12,680
and that was during the Asia Financial Crisis

255
00:09:12,680 –> 00:09:15,240
in 1996 to 1997 where there was a drastic increment

256
00:09:15,240 –> 00:09:16,880
in terms of interest rate.

257
00:09:16,880 –> 00:09:19,760
Thereby where we see close about 11% dip

258
00:09:19,760 –> 00:09:21,760
in terms of property price index.

259
00:09:21,760 –> 00:09:23,520
Now you might be wondering why is it that Singapore

260
00:09:23,520 –> 00:09:24,440
behaves a little bit differently

261
00:09:24,440 –> 00:09:26,560
even with different rounds

262
00:09:26,560 –> 00:09:28,720
of increment in interest rate prices rise?

263
00:09:28,720 –> 00:09:31,520
Of course, we are not showcasing the gaps right here,

264
00:09:31,520 –> 00:09:32,640
because when interest rate dips,

265
00:09:32,640 –> 00:09:35,040
most of the time, prices rise as well.

266
00:09:35,040 –> 00:09:35,880
So you might be wondering

267
00:09:35,880 –> 00:09:37,720
why is it that when interest rate drop,

268
00:09:37,720 –> 00:09:38,760
everybody’s asking me to buy properties.

269
00:09:38,760 –> 00:09:40,240
but interest rate increase,

270
00:09:40,240 –> 00:09:42,720
everybody’s still asking me to buy properties in Singapore.

271
00:09:42,720 –> 00:09:46,160
So how should I think about the property market in Singapore

272
00:09:46,160 –> 00:09:49,280
and how should I react whenever interest rate changes?

273
00:09:49,280 –> 00:09:51,080
Why is it that globally a lot of people

274
00:09:51,080 –> 00:09:52,800
are very worried about high interest rate?

275
00:09:52,800 –> 00:09:54,920
Now the key rationale is because globally,

276
00:09:54,920 –> 00:09:55,880
the natural behaviour,

277
00:09:55,880 –> 00:09:57,520
whenever interest rate increase,

278
00:09:57,520 –> 00:09:59,640
price will definitely plateau,

279
00:09:59,640 –> 00:10:02,480
or price will start to see a downward kind of pressure.

280
00:10:02,480 –> 00:10:05,160
This is because every time interest rate increase,

281
00:10:05,160 –> 00:10:06,960
the buying power of purchases drop.

282
00:10:06,960 –> 00:10:08,080
And that’s a natural reaction.

283
00:10:08,080 –> 00:10:11,120
However, in Singapore, why is it that it behaves like this?

284
00:10:11,120 –> 00:10:13,440
This is something that we want to investigate

285
00:10:13,440 –> 00:10:15,200
and we want to deep dive a little bit today.

286
00:10:15,200 –> 00:10:16,440
Now the key reaction is of course

287
00:10:16,440 –> 00:10:18,600
going into the breakdown as well.

288
00:10:18,600 –> 00:10:21,400
Interest rate increment usually affects buying power.

289
00:10:21,400 –> 00:10:25,200
As you can see, just by 1% gain from 2.5%

290
00:10:25,200 –> 00:10:28,440
to 3.5%, you are already seeing an increment

291
00:10:28,440 –> 00:10:29,400
based on, let’s say if you’re planning

292
00:10:29,400 –> 00:10:31,240
to buy a property at $1.5 mil,

293
00:10:31,240 –> 00:10:34,280
if a 1% increment is already going to cost

294
00:10:34,280 –> 00:10:36,720
close about $600 increase in your money instalment.

295
00:10:36,720 –> 00:10:39,200
And not just that, you are also paying lesser principal

296
00:10:39,200 –> 00:10:40,880
and you are paying more interest

297
00:10:40,880 –> 00:10:42,160
within your monthly instalment.

298
00:10:42,160 –> 00:10:43,000
And of course, this is something

299
00:10:43,000 –> 00:10:45,120
that a lot of investors are very fearful of,

300
00:10:45,120 –> 00:10:48,600
that induce a behaviour of wanting to time the market,

301
00:10:48,600 –> 00:10:50,760
Later we’re going to talk about this timing the market

302
00:10:50,760 –> 00:10:52,200
kind of methodology in depth.

303
00:10:52,200 –> 00:10:53,160
So of course a lot of people are worried

304
00:10:53,160 –> 00:10:55,000
that increase interest rate,

305
00:10:55,000 –> 00:10:56,760
and we have already had the fourth round

306
00:10:56,760 –> 00:10:59,400
just announced about two weeks back by Federal Reserve.

307
00:10:59,400 –> 00:11:01,040
This is going to cause another new round

308
00:11:01,040 –> 00:11:02,360
of interest rate increment

309
00:11:02,360 –> 00:11:04,320
in the mortgage loan rate in Singapore.

310
00:11:04,320 –> 00:11:06,960
And will this tame the ever-climbing real estate prices

311
00:11:06,960 –> 00:11:08,080
in Singapore and something

312
00:11:08,080 –> 00:11:09,720
that we need to really talk about.

313
00:11:09,720 –> 00:11:11,000
And as you can see, this is our chart created

314
00:11:11,000 –> 00:11:12,640
by our Research Team,

315
00:11:12,640 –> 00:11:14,600
even with this sharp rise

316
00:11:14,600 –> 00:11:17,400
in terms of our local mortgage interest rate,

317
00:11:17,400 –> 00:11:19,480
what’s going to happen from here moving forward

318
00:11:19,480 –> 00:11:21,360
in the next 12 to 18 months

319
00:11:21,360 –> 00:11:24,240
with all price indexes with this orange line

320
00:11:24,240 –> 00:11:26,040
being the landed property price index,

321
00:11:26,040 –> 00:11:27,760
the red line being the non-landed,

322
00:11:27,760 –> 00:11:29,760
meaning condos and apartments property price index

323
00:11:29,760 –> 00:11:30,720
as well as the blue line,

324
00:11:30,720 –> 00:11:32,960
which is the HDB property price index,

325
00:11:32,960 –> 00:11:35,680
what it’s going to happen to these three price indexes?

326
00:11:35,680 –> 00:11:36,800
Will they start to plateau,

327
00:11:36,800 –> 00:11:38,280
will they start to come down

328
00:11:38,280 –> 00:11:40,240
or will they continue to rise gradually?

329
00:11:40,240 –> 00:11:42,480
And of course, we want to look at the latest cooling measures.

330
00:11:42,480 –> 00:11:44,440
They were just released on the 30th of September.

331
00:11:44,440 –> 00:11:46,680
I was just traveling home and when I reached home

332
00:11:46,680 –> 00:11:48,680
at around ~12 midnight,

333
00:11:48,680 –> 00:11:49,680
I was looking at my phone

334
00:11:49,680 –> 00:11:50,760
and it’s like this news was released

335
00:11:50,760 –> 00:11:53,080
on the 23:59 on the dot,

336
00:11:53,080 –> 00:11:54,440
which is 11:59 PM,

337
00:11:54,440 –> 00:11:57,360
which definitely nowadays cooling measures are released

338
00:11:57,360 –> 00:11:59,720
at the last instance to prevent any from of foul play.

339
00:11:59,720 –> 00:12:00,880
So let’s take a deep dive.

340
00:12:00,880 –> 00:12:03,240
These were the news that came out on Friday,

341
00:12:03,240 –> 00:12:05,640
and stricter property loan limits

342
00:12:05,640 –> 00:12:09,040
to moderate market demand as well as housing loan limits.

343
00:12:09,040 –> 00:12:09,960
Basically what we’re going to do

344
00:12:09,960 –> 00:12:12,240
is we’re going to quickly dissect these three things

345
00:12:12,240 –> 00:12:13,280
in relation to today’s webinar.

346
00:12:13,280 –> 00:12:16,280
Want to see whether will this cause any sort of ripple effects

347
00:12:16,280 –> 00:12:17,400
into the private property market

348
00:12:17,400 –> 00:12:18,840
as well as the HDB market.

349
00:12:18,840 –> 00:12:20,320
Now this time round to sum it up,

350
00:12:20,320 –> 00:12:23,640
I would say that close to 70% of the measures

351
00:12:23,640 –> 00:12:26,960
are targeted towards a HDB pricing index,

352
00:12:26,960 –> 00:12:29,040
because the HDB price index has a really risen

353
00:12:29,040 –> 00:12:30,080
by quarter-on-quarter.

354
00:12:30,080 –> 00:12:31,760
In fact, I think consecutively,

355
00:12:31,760 –> 00:12:34,680
it’s around close to about 26th or maybe 25th month

356
00:12:34,680 –> 00:12:37,120
of consecutive increment, month-on-month basis.

357
00:12:37,120 –> 00:12:40,120
So naturally this is going to be a cause of concern

358
00:12:40,120 –> 00:12:41,200
in our government’s point of view,

359
00:12:41,200 –> 00:12:42,280
because public housing are meant

360
00:12:42,280 –> 00:12:44,560
to be the safety net for Singaporeans.

361
00:12:44,560 –> 00:12:47,800
It’s basically a place as a home dwelling.

362
00:12:47,800 –> 00:12:49,200
It’s not for speculation,

363
00:12:49,200 –> 00:12:51,480
it’s not for really to sell and really speculate

364
00:12:51,480 –> 00:12:53,520
and to make large sums of capital gain.

365
00:12:53,520 –> 00:12:56,080
So basically we need to take note that HDB housing,

366
00:12:56,080 –> 00:12:59,680
HDB apartments are meant for encouraging marriages,

367
00:12:59,680 –> 00:13:01,200
first timers for families,

368
00:13:01,200 –> 00:13:03,000
to form their families and to get a first home,

369
00:13:03,000 –> 00:13:05,400
is going to get out of hand in terms of pricing,

370
00:13:05,400 –> 00:13:07,600
which of course, if you look at the past 24 months,

371
00:13:07,600 –> 00:13:10,320
the amount of $1 mil HDB apartments

372
00:13:10,320 –> 00:13:13,920
that has been transacted and in a lot of new estates already.

373
00:13:13,920 –> 00:13:15,520
Just recently of course, our team transacted

374
00:13:15,520 –> 00:13:18,440
one of the first $1 mil properties

375
00:13:18,440 –> 00:13:20,600
in Bedok. This is naturally I think, a cause of concern

376
00:13:20,600 –> 00:13:21,840
for our government as well

377
00:13:21,840 –> 00:13:23,760
in terms of the way that prices are moving.

378
00:13:23,760 –> 00:13:26,760
Number one is the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) stress test increased,

379
00:13:26,760 –> 00:13:29,040
and that pertains to Mortgage Servicing Ratio (MSR) as well.

380
00:13:29,040 –> 00:13:31,680
And naturally, I think in terms of home buyers

381
00:13:31,680 –> 00:13:33,320
that are planning to buy a private property,

382
00:13:33,320 –> 00:13:36,520
they will want to see what impact will this have.

383
00:13:36,520 –> 00:13:38,400
Second and third one, largely target those,

384
00:13:38,400 –> 00:13:39,520
in the HDB market.

385
00:13:39,520 –> 00:13:40,880
Let’s have a look at the possible ripple effects

386
00:13:40,880 –> 00:13:41,720
very quickly.

387
00:13:41,720 –> 00:13:43,240
Now TDSR, the stress test

388
00:13:43,240 –> 00:13:46,000
has now moved from 3.5% to 4%.

389
00:13:46,000 –> 00:13:46,840
Now what is the stress test?

390
00:13:46,840 –> 00:13:49,000
Just a quick recap, was that TDSR was introduced

391
00:13:49,000 –> 00:13:50,520
back in 2013.

392
00:13:50,520 –> 00:13:51,960
Now, if you look at this chart,

393
00:13:51,960 –> 00:13:54,160
TDSR, when it came out in 2013,

394
00:13:54,160 –> 00:13:56,480
it caused a major shift in the market.

395
00:13:56,480 –> 00:13:58,440
Now, we did an episode on Nuggets On The Go.

396
00:13:58,440 –> 00:13:59,480
If you’ve not seen it,

397
00:13:59,480 –> 00:14:00,680
you can go to our PropertyLimBrothers’ YouTube channel,

398
00:14:00,680 –> 00:14:02,480
click on the Nuggets On The Go playlist.

399
00:14:02,480 –> 00:14:06,640
We explain very in-depth on what has the 2013 TDSR

400
00:14:06,640 –> 00:14:08,120
caused in the market, not just in the dip,

401
00:14:08,120 –> 00:14:09,840
in the temporal kind of fashion

402
00:14:09,840 –> 00:14:12,360
for basically quite a couple of years before it recovered,

403
00:14:12,360 –> 00:14:16,160
but it shifted the way developers built properties,

404
00:14:16,160 –> 00:14:18,080
because it shifted in the new era

405
00:14:18,080 –> 00:14:20,400
where we are in right now whereby the quantum

406
00:14:20,400 –> 00:14:21,520
is extremely important

407
00:14:21,520 –> 00:14:22,600
because developers has to build properties

408
00:14:22,600 –> 00:14:24,440
that suits a certain kind of quantum

409
00:14:24,440 –> 00:14:28,440
that suits the buying power of audiences and home purchasers

410
00:14:28,440 –> 00:14:30,480
because of the new TDSR implementation.

411
00:14:30,480 –> 00:14:32,360
Basically, in the past when you purchase a property,

412
00:14:32,360 –> 00:14:34,560
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) didn’t have that regulation for banks

413
00:14:34,560 –> 00:14:36,920
to really go in depth into checking

414
00:14:36,920 –> 00:14:37,960
in terms of credit check,

415
00:14:37,960 –> 00:14:40,880
in terms of how much credit card loan you’re servicing,

416
00:14:40,880 –> 00:14:42,280
how much car loan you are servicing.

417
00:14:42,280 –> 00:14:43,640
But after the TDSR implementation,

418
00:14:43,640 –> 00:14:45,080
basically in terms of car loan,

419
00:14:45,080 –> 00:14:46,840
in terms of your personal debt,

420
00:14:46,840 –> 00:14:48,000
in terms of bank loans,

421
00:14:48,000 –> 00:14:51,160
before banks will issue up loans to you for your mortgage,

422
00:14:51,160 –> 00:14:53,040
they will do a thorough credit check

423
00:14:53,040 –> 00:14:55,200
on your credit bureau kind of status.

424
00:14:55,200 –> 00:14:57,760
2013 caused a shift and you can see all segments

425
00:14:57,760 –> 00:14:59,640
had a downward shift and that took place

426
00:14:59,640 –> 00:15:02,520
close to about, until from 2013 to 2016

427
00:15:02,520 –> 00:15:04,720
before everything, so-called went uphill

428
00:15:04,720 –> 00:15:06,960
from 2016 for the past 6 years.

429
00:15:06,960 –> 00:15:08,760
We need to think of these three events,

430
00:15:08,760 –> 00:15:10,680
because just in December last year,

431
00:15:10,680 –> 00:15:12,480
TDSR has a new implementation

432
00:15:12,480 –> 00:15:14,320
whereby there’s a threshold shift.

433
00:15:14,320 –> 00:15:16,240
So take note that this stress test

434
00:15:16,240 –> 00:15:18,120
is not the threshold portion.

435
00:15:18,120 –> 00:15:20,080
So in TDSR there are two components.

436
00:15:20,080 –> 00:15:21,920
The first component is the threshold

437
00:15:21,920 –> 00:15:27,320
was shifted from 60%, which was from 2013 until 2021, to 55%.

438
00:15:27,320 –> 00:15:28,480
That means in terms of,

439
00:15:28,480 –> 00:15:30,400
let’s say you’re earning $10,000 a month,

440
00:15:30,400 –> 00:15:31,520
the banks will only take it

441
00:15:31,520 –> 00:15:33,880
that you’re earning $5,500 per month

442
00:15:33,880 –> 00:15:36,960
to assess your income and loan eligibility

443
00:15:36,960 –> 00:15:37,800
for your mortgage.

444
00:15:37,800 –> 00:15:42,760
Now this 3.5% stress test is the underlying component

445
00:15:42,760 –> 00:15:44,560
to bedrock your loan,

446
00:15:44,560 –> 00:15:46,600
basically is to bedrock your affordability.

447
00:15:46,600 –> 00:15:49,440
In the event, if let’s say the interest rate

448
00:15:49,440 –> 00:15:51,720
on the surface level were to rise to this level,

449
00:15:51,720 –> 00:15:54,520
the banks and MAS know that your income

450
00:15:54,520 –> 00:15:56,560
is able to sustain up to 3.5%.

451
00:15:56,560 –> 00:15:58,440
So take note of that threshold is on the surface,

452
00:15:58,440 –> 00:16:00,400
stress test is at the bottom.

453
00:16:00,400 –> 00:16:03,600
So why is it that MAS wants to raise this stress test,

454
00:16:03,600 –> 00:16:05,760
that’s the bedrock at the bottom to 4%?

455
00:16:05,760 –> 00:16:09,320
The key reason is because interest rate are rising.

456
00:16:09,320 –> 00:16:12,040
As mentioned, Federal Reserve (FED) has increased interest rates by four rounds

457
00:16:12,040 –> 00:16:13,760
and moving into 2023, very likely,

458
00:16:13,760 –> 00:16:16,600
we’re going to see interest rate continue to rise,

459
00:16:16,600 –> 00:16:17,680
which is why you see all these news

460
00:16:17,680 –> 00:16:18,880
in terms of interest rate increment,

461
00:16:18,880 –> 00:16:22,880
this is basically to increase the stress test level

462
00:16:22,880 –> 00:16:24,080
and the sustainability level

463
00:16:24,080 –> 00:16:26,360
to ensure that in the event if interest rate

464
00:16:26,360 –> 00:16:27,480
were to increase to 4%,

465
00:16:27,480 –> 00:16:31,360
the home loan borrower can still sustain the monthly mortgage.

466
00:16:31,360 –> 00:16:32,400
So this is a prudence check,

467
00:16:32,400 –> 00:16:35,360
which is a good measure to prevent overheating

468
00:16:35,360 –> 00:16:36,280
and over-borrowing.

469
00:16:36,280 –> 00:16:39,560
We need to decipher into this TDSR 2022,

470
00:16:39,560 –> 00:16:41,320
because what will be the impact?

471
00:16:41,320 –> 00:16:43,840
Because as we can see from TDSR 2021 in December,

472
00:16:43,840 –> 00:16:45,040
it didn’t cause much of a ripple effect.

473
00:16:45,040 –> 00:16:47,360
In fact, quarter-on-quarter basis price

474
00:16:47,360 –> 00:16:48,880
are still gradually moving upwards,

475
00:16:48,880 –> 00:16:50,600
the private property and landed property pricing.

476
00:16:50,600 –> 00:16:54,160
This is something that we just put up very quickly yesterday

477
00:16:54,160 –> 00:16:56,240
and we realised there are some sub-components

478
00:16:56,240 –> 00:16:58,440
that we need to look at in terms of mechanisms.

479
00:16:58,440 –> 00:17:01,280
From 2013, the impact is huge,

480
00:17:01,280 –> 00:17:04,360
because in 2013 to after the 2013 season,

481
00:17:04,360 –> 00:17:07,000
basically with the implementation of TDSR,

482
00:17:07,000 –> 00:17:08,080
this is before TDSR,

483
00:17:08,080 –> 00:17:08,960
this is after TDSR.

484
00:17:08,960 –> 00:17:11,760
Take a look at somebody that’s earning $10K.

485
00:17:11,760 –> 00:17:13,360
They could actually afford a property

486
00:17:13,360 –> 00:17:16,400
that’s worth $2 mil by having a loan of $1.6 mil.

487
00:17:16,400 –> 00:17:18,840
After TDSR was implemented in 2013,

488
00:17:18,840 –> 00:17:22,120
basically their loan ability dropped to $1.336 mil

489
00:17:22,120 –> 00:17:24,720
If they were earning $10K and they’re aged 35,

490
00:17:24,720 –> 00:17:27,320
they get a 75% bank loan and loaning for 30 years.

491
00:17:27,320 –> 00:17:29,000
Basically the dip happens over here

492
00:17:29,000 –> 00:17:32,440
in terms of their property purchase price ability.

493
00:17:32,440 –> 00:17:33,400
Their property purchase price ability

494
00:17:33,400 –> 00:17:37,240
instantly dropped from $2 mil to $1.78 mil.

495
00:17:37,240 –> 00:17:39,200
Last year, December 2021,

496
00:17:39,200 –> 00:17:42,120
basically with the adjustment downwards of 5%

497
00:17:42,120 –> 00:17:45,280
from 60% or 55% in terms of TDSR over here,

498
00:17:45,280 –> 00:17:47,800
from 60% to 55%, basically that did cause

499
00:17:47,800 –> 00:17:50,080
a 8.33% drop in loan quantum.

500
00:17:50,080 –> 00:17:52,840
Compared to 2013, that was about 9 years ago,

501
00:17:52,840 –> 00:17:55,080
it causes a 16% drop in loan quantum,

502
00:17:55,080 –> 00:17:57,880
but this time round, last year it causes a drop in 8.33%.

503
00:17:57,880 –> 00:18:00,680
However, the market was not cooled yet, even.

504
00:18:00,680 –> 00:18:01,720
Now this time round,

505
00:18:01,720 –> 00:18:03,760
basically with this stress test increment

506
00:18:03,760 –> 00:18:04,840
for additional financial prudence,

507
00:18:04,840 –> 00:18:08,600
this will then cause a 5.94% drop

508
00:18:08,600 –> 00:18:09,440
in terms loan quantum.

509
00:18:09,440 –> 00:18:11,800
So over here, we have tracked all three

510
00:18:11,800 –> 00:18:13,720
for people earning $10K a month,

511
00:18:13,720 –> 00:18:15,840
$15K a month, $28K a month

512
00:18:15,840 –> 00:18:16,680
assuming they’re aged 35,

513
00:18:16,680 –> 00:18:18,520
and with the new stress test of 4%,

514
00:18:18,520 –> 00:18:21,480
basically they’re going to see that in the past,

515
00:18:21,480 –> 00:18:23,800
before, basically 30th September 2022,

516
00:18:23,800 –> 00:18:26,120
they could have loaned $1.22 mil,

517
00:18:26,120 –> 00:18:29,200
but now they will only be able to loan $1.152 mil,

518
00:18:29,200 –> 00:18:32,160
which will then dip their quantum affordability

519
00:18:32,160 –> 00:18:34,080
from $1.63 mil to $1.53 mil,

520
00:18:34,080 –> 00:18:36,920
which is about $100K drop for somebody earning $10K.

521
00:18:36,920 –> 00:18:39,040
Will this cause, basically a ripple effect?

522
00:18:39,040 –> 00:18:41,320
Basically if you do head back to this episode,

523
00:18:41,320 –> 00:18:44,280
we have also talked about how TDSR has affected unit size.

524
00:18:44,280 –> 00:18:45,800
And before we head onto the second one,

525
00:18:45,800 –> 00:18:48,720
basically to round it up is that this percentage drop

526
00:18:48,720 –> 00:18:50,960
is in all contexts pretty minute.

527
00:18:50,960 –> 00:18:52,320
Now why is it minute?

528
00:18:52,320 –> 00:18:54,840
It’s because if let’s say we look at the amount

529
00:18:54,840 –> 00:18:57,920
of property transactions and we look at quantum basis,

530
00:18:57,920 –> 00:18:59,520
this technically will not affect buyers

531
00:18:59,520 –> 00:19:01,400
that are going for larger quantum,

532
00:19:01,400 –> 00:19:03,480
because on the ground level,

533
00:19:03,480 –> 00:19:05,080
of course we need to deep dive into certain statistics,

534
00:19:05,080 –> 00:19:06,880
homeowners that are buying landed property,

535
00:19:06,880 –> 00:19:10,000
sometimes they’re not even taking up to the full 75% loan.

536
00:19:10,000 –> 00:19:11,800
Some landed buyers, they’re down paying 50%.

537
00:19:11,800 –> 00:19:14,880
Some they’re even down paying with additional access

538
00:19:14,880 –> 00:19:16,400
and balance in their CPF OA account,

539
00:19:16,400 –> 00:19:19,080
even after they fulfil the 25% down payment.

540
00:19:19,080 –> 00:19:20,200
Now this reduction, of course,

541
00:19:20,200 –> 00:19:21,440
naturally will mean that home buyers

542
00:19:21,440 –> 00:19:23,320
that have been maxing out their loan,

543
00:19:23,320 –> 00:19:24,480
they will have to down pay more

544
00:19:24,480 –> 00:19:25,880
or they will have to shorten

545
00:19:25,880 –> 00:19:28,560
or slightly decrease their purchase.

546
00:19:28,560 –> 00:19:30,120
But will this really cause an impact in the market?

547
00:19:30,120 –> 00:19:31,680
This is something that we need to observe

548
00:19:31,680 –> 00:19:33,040
for the next 6 to 12 months,

549
00:19:33,040 –> 00:19:36,280
but definitely in terms of larger quantum purchasers

550
00:19:36,280 –> 00:19:37,360
for buyers with higher holding power

551
00:19:37,360 –> 00:19:38,840
or higher purchasing power,

552
00:19:38,840 –> 00:19:40,120
if they’re already buying a $2 mil,

553
00:19:40,120 –> 00:19:41,120
$3 mil, $4 mil, $5 mil condo,

554
00:19:41,120 –> 00:19:42,480
they’re buying a landed property,

555
00:19:42,480 –> 00:19:44,400
I seriously think that there’s not much impact

556
00:19:44,400 –> 00:19:46,360
in this category of purchase price.

557
00:19:46,360 –> 00:19:48,520
Now, if we are talking about smaller quantum purchase,

558
00:19:48,520 –> 00:19:50,440
then yes, it will have an impact naturally

559
00:19:50,440 –> 00:19:51,680
for maybe first-time private property buyers.

560
00:19:51,680 –> 00:19:53,240
Maybe they’re buying something in the quantum

561
00:19:53,240 –> 00:19:55,200
about $1.5 mil and their income

562
00:19:55,200 –> 00:19:57,120
is just to that nice extent

563
00:19:57,120 –> 00:19:58,320
to be able to stretch to this limit,

564
00:19:58,320 –> 00:20:00,720
naturally they’re going to see a slight dip

565
00:20:00,720 –> 00:20:02,520
in their purchasing power.

566
00:20:02,520 –> 00:20:04,240
So largely, this might happen at the OCR region

567
00:20:04,240 –> 00:20:06,160
if they’re buying something of a lower quantum,

568
00:20:06,160 –> 00:20:08,200
maybe $1-over mil, $1.5 mil,

569
00:20:08,200 –> 00:20:09,480
$1.8 mil kind of range.

570
00:20:09,480 –> 00:20:10,760
But it’s also being counted

571
00:20:10,760 –> 00:20:14,000
by the fact that OCR has a lot of pent up demand right now

572
00:20:14,000 –> 00:20:16,200
because of the rise in the amount of HDB upgraders

573
00:20:16,200 –> 00:20:17,200
over the years.

574
00:20:17,200 –> 00:20:18,280
And we’re going to look at some of the data

575
00:20:18,280 –> 00:20:21,160
of the HDB upgrading market later.

576
00:20:21,160 –> 00:20:23,520
So in short, we think that this realm,

577
00:20:23,520 –> 00:20:26,400
though it causes a 5.94% drop in terms of loan quantum,

578
00:20:26,400 –> 00:20:28,200
it should not have a very huge impact.

579
00:20:28,200 –> 00:20:29,920
We think that this entire round of cooling measure

580
00:20:29,920 –> 00:20:33,200
for 30th September is really targeted at the HDB market

581
00:20:33,200 –> 00:20:34,440
and we’re going to look at the effect right now.

582
00:20:34,440 –> 00:20:36,680
So this second one is actually quite,

583
00:20:36,680 –> 00:20:38,880
I would say a mid impact kind of measure.

584
00:20:38,880 –> 00:20:40,920
Now the key reason is because the amount of audiences

585
00:20:40,920 –> 00:20:43,880
is going to be reduced and we really need to see

586
00:20:43,880 –> 00:20:45,640
what is going to happen in the next 6 to 12 months.

587
00:20:45,640 –> 00:20:47,360
So basically anybody that wants to downgrade

588
00:20:47,360 –> 00:20:49,920
from their condominium or landed, they want to buy HDB.

589
00:20:49,920 –> 00:20:51,360
And take note that when you buy HDB,

590
00:20:51,360 –> 00:20:53,480
you have to dispose of every private property

591
00:20:53,480 –> 00:20:54,520
you have in Singapore and overseas.

592
00:20:54,520 –> 00:20:56,760
All residential properties have to be disposed.

593
00:20:56,760 –> 00:20:59,600
You need to declare and sign at the HDB when you bought it.

594
00:20:59,600 –> 00:21:01,920
So this is going to create an impact.

595
00:21:01,920 –> 00:21:03,080
What kind of impact?

596
00:21:03,080 –> 00:21:03,920
We have to look at it.

597
00:21:03,920 –> 00:21:06,120
Now take note that, HDB mentioned that if you are buying

598
00:21:06,120 –> 00:21:08,200
and let’s say if you’re buying 4-room or smaller

599
00:21:08,200 –> 00:21:09,400
and you’re above 55 years old,

600
00:21:09,400 –> 00:21:10,680
then you are not affected by this.

601
00:21:10,680 –> 00:21:11,800
You can buy immediately.

602
00:21:11,800 –> 00:21:14,040
In fact, the natural trend is that let’s say a couple,

603
00:21:14,040 –> 00:21:16,200
they are above 55, they want to buy a 4-room,

604
00:21:16,200 –> 00:21:17,800
they usually will go and buy first,

605
00:21:17,800 –> 00:21:18,880
then they will sell it,

606
00:21:18,880 –> 00:21:21,280
because the current rule is that once you buy the HDB,

607
00:21:21,280 –> 00:21:23,120
you have 6 months from the completion

608
00:21:23,120 –> 00:21:24,560
to sell your private property.

609
00:21:24,560 –> 00:21:25,840
So they will naturally buy first,

610
00:21:25,840 –> 00:21:27,040
then they will take their time to sell.

611
00:21:27,040 –> 00:21:28,280
So they’re not in a rush,

612
00:21:28,280 –> 00:21:29,440
it’s a nice transition,

613
00:21:29,440 –> 00:21:31,600
they can buy, then sell, and then move over.

614
00:21:31,600 –> 00:21:33,120
They don’t have to go out and rent

615
00:21:33,120 –> 00:21:33,960
and all this kind of stuff.

616
00:21:33,960 –> 00:21:36,160
We also did a check on the EC loan quantum.

617
00:21:36,160 –> 00:21:38,160
Okay, this is how this is going to affect the EC market,

618
00:21:38,160 –> 00:21:39,440
then I’ll come back to the 15-month thing.

619
00:21:39,440 –> 00:21:42,760
EC for bank loan, there will be a dip,

620
00:21:42,760 –> 00:21:45,200
basically from $935K to $879K

621
00:21:45,200 –> 00:21:46,880
for a couple earning $14K

622
00:21:46,880 –> 00:21:48,920
The thing that EC income sitting is $16K.

623
00:21:48,920 –> 00:21:50,160
So there’s going to be a slight dip,

624
00:21:50,160 –> 00:21:52,360
and EC is based on MSR calculation.

625
00:21:52,360 –> 00:21:56,880
HDB, your loan is going to be slightly curated as well.

626
00:21:56,880 –> 00:21:57,760
If you’re taking a HDB loan,

627
00:21:57,760 –> 00:21:59,280
take your HDB Loan Eligibility (HLE) before and after.

628
00:21:59,280 –> 00:22:01,960
There’s a minor sharp dip basically.

629
00:22:01,960 –> 00:22:05,320
Now take note that LTV has dropped from 85% to 80%.

630
00:22:05,320 –> 00:22:06,160
That’s a reduction of 5%.

631
00:22:06,160 –> 00:22:08,600
HDB bank loan before and after,

632
00:22:08,600 –> 00:22:10,280
basically a slight dip as well.

633
00:22:10,280 –> 00:22:11,560
Let’s say if you’re earning $14K,

634
00:22:11,560 –> 00:22:14,080
you could have loaned $838K before.

635
00:22:14,080 –> 00:22:15,800
Now you can only loan about $795K.

636
00:22:15,800 –> 00:22:19,040
So basically a slight dip because of the stress test

637
00:22:19,040 –> 00:22:21,840
that has been increased from 3.5% to 4%.

638
00:22:21,840 –> 00:22:22,680
Now take note that HDB loan,

639
00:22:22,680 –> 00:22:23,640
if you take a bank look,

640
00:22:23,640 –> 00:22:25,760
only loan 25 years, HDB loan also 25 years.

641
00:22:25,760 –> 00:22:28,000
So the tenure is slightly shorter at 25.

642
00:22:28,000 –> 00:22:29,080
Coming back to this 15-month thing,

643
00:22:29,080 –> 00:22:32,440
this 15-month thing coupled with the fact that

644
00:22:32,440 –> 00:22:35,200
it’s likely targeted at a core group.

645
00:22:35,200 –> 00:22:36,040
What is this core group?

646
00:22:36,040 –> 00:22:37,000
This will be the core group.

647
00:22:37,000 –> 00:22:39,440
This core group will be people who are planning

648
00:22:39,440 –> 00:22:40,600
for retirement largely,

649
00:22:40,600 –> 00:22:42,880
or maybe they’re in their 40s

650
00:22:42,880 –> 00:22:45,280
or maybe they have so-called seen appreciation

651
00:22:45,280 –> 00:22:47,240
at private property or condo or landed,

652
00:22:47,240 –> 00:22:49,760
and they want to just pay off HDB

653
00:22:49,760 –> 00:22:52,200
and maybe retire and *be debt free and things like that.

654
00:22:52,200 –> 00:22:54,120
It can also be linked to the fact that our government

655
00:22:54,120 –> 00:22:57,240
could have a lot of data that the bigger HDBs

656
00:22:57,240 –> 00:23:00,880
are really hitting a lot of high price movement.

657
00:23:00,880 –> 00:23:01,920
Technically speaking,

658
00:23:01,920 –> 00:23:04,680
I would say is the 5-room, EA, EM properties,

659
00:23:04,680 –> 00:23:08,920
and very likely this audience might see a drop

660
00:23:08,920 –> 00:23:10,280
in the amount of audience that are buying

661
00:23:10,280 –> 00:23:11,120
these type of properties,

662
00:23:11,120 –> 00:23:12,160
because this group now is not allowed buy

663
00:23:12,160 –> 00:23:14,200
these type of properties anymore.

664
00:23:14,200 –> 00:23:17,080
So technically speaking, this group of audience

665
00:23:17,080 –> 00:23:19,480
will basically see an impact of loss,

666
00:23:19,480 –> 00:23:21,160
because let’s say the landed and condo downgraders,

667
00:23:21,160 –> 00:23:23,360
they will not be stuck because they cannot buy

668
00:23:23,360 –> 00:23:24,200
this category of properties.

669
00:23:24,200 –> 00:23:27,760
What might happen is that if let’s say I’m willing to wait,

670
00:23:27,760 –> 00:23:30,240
let’s say me and my wife, we are 55,

671
00:23:30,240 –> 00:23:33,000
and we really want to pay off a huge Executive Maisonette

672
00:23:33,000 –> 00:23:33,840
so that to retire.

673
00:23:33,840 –> 00:23:34,880
Let’s say we have a landed property,

674
00:23:34,880 –> 00:23:36,720
we sell off for $5 mil.

675
00:23:36,720 –> 00:23:37,680
I want to pay off for $1 mil

676
00:23:37,680 –> 00:23:38,920
and keep $4 mil for retirement.

677
00:23:38,920 –> 00:23:41,840
What’s going to happen is that I might bite the bullet and rent

678
00:23:41,840 –> 00:23:45,280
or because that I think that now I need to pay

679
00:23:45,280 –> 00:23:47,600
additional rental to wait for this 15 months,

680
00:23:47,600 –> 00:23:48,880
I might pass on that rental cost

681
00:23:48,880 –> 00:23:51,160
and factor into my current private property

682
00:23:51,160 –> 00:23:53,080
and pass it onto the consumer.

683
00:23:53,080 –> 00:23:56,080
And so this might then cause a higher amount of holding power

684
00:23:56,080 –> 00:23:57,840
for the current resale private property prices.

685
00:23:57,840 –> 00:24:00,120
Might, this is just our own estimation,

686
00:24:00,120 –> 00:24:02,080
of course there’s currently no data on that.

687
00:24:02,080 –> 00:24:04,840
This might also create another set of so-called behaviour

688
00:24:04,840 –> 00:24:06,000
in the sense that landed owners

689
00:24:06,000 –> 00:24:08,640
might also think about this as a hassle

690
00:24:08,640 –> 00:24:11,040
and then they might think that I might just buy a condo

691
00:24:11,040 –> 00:24:13,040
and not buy a HDB because I don’t want to wait

692
00:24:13,040 –> 00:24:14,760
for the 15 months, is a little bit of a hassle.

693
00:24:14,760 –> 00:24:16,520
If I’m a CCR condo owner,

694
00:24:16,520 –> 00:24:18,640
maybe I’m holding onto a property for $4 mil,

695
00:24:18,640 –> 00:24:20,680
fully paid, I might just think

696
00:24:20,680 –> 00:24:23,480
instead of buying an Executive Apartment of $1 mil,

697
00:24:23,480 –> 00:24:27,040
I would just buy maybe a $1.8 mil condo

698
00:24:27,040 –> 00:24:28,240
and then I will just pay it off.

699
00:24:28,240 –> 00:24:29,680
So I might then go for a condo option.

700
00:24:29,680 –> 00:24:32,080
Rental prices because of this will definitely shoot up,

701
00:24:32,080 –> 00:24:33,160
whether it is HDB or private

702
00:24:33,160 –> 00:24:35,200
because of the rise in demand for this,

703
00:24:35,200 –> 00:24:37,640
it will add on and fuel into the rental market.

704
00:24:37,640 –> 00:24:39,840
This audience might see a dip in terms of demographics

705
00:24:39,840 –> 00:24:42,720
of category buying 5-room, EA and EM.

706
00:24:42,720 –> 00:24:45,400
And of course, all types of HDB will definitely lose

707
00:24:45,400 –> 00:24:46,520
this audience largely.

708
00:24:46,520 –> 00:24:47,520
Why is that so?

709
00:24:47,520 –> 00:24:48,720
Is because this 15-month period

710
00:24:48,720 –> 00:24:50,040
is actually not 15 months.

711
00:24:50,040 –> 00:24:51,360
It’s actually 24 months.

712
00:24:51,360 –> 00:24:52,640
It’s too long a waiting period

713
00:24:52,640 –> 00:24:54,640
for maybe for a huge category of people.

714
00:24:54,640 –> 00:24:55,840
Let’s dissect it.

715
00:24:55,840 –> 00:24:57,560
On the surface it looks like 15 months.

716
00:24:57,560 –> 00:25:00,760
But actually if you dissect the entire home purchase

717
00:25:00,760 –> 00:25:03,040
and sale process from selling a private property

718
00:25:03,040 –> 00:25:04,560
and the completion period is 3 months,

719
00:25:04,560 –> 00:25:06,520
usually this period, owners would’ve already been looking

720
00:25:06,520 –> 00:25:08,840
for their replacement home, which is their HDB flat.

721
00:25:08,840 –> 00:25:09,680
Now in this case,

722
00:25:09,680 –> 00:25:11,400
if they’re willing to wait for that 15 months,

723
00:25:11,400 –> 00:25:15,640
they have to successfully sell off, complete it 15 months.

724
00:25:15,640 –> 00:25:17,200
Of course we’re waiting for a little bit more details

725
00:25:17,200 –> 00:25:19,240
to see the calculation whether this is from completion date,

726
00:25:19,240 –> 00:25:20,600
exercise date and things like that,

727
00:25:20,600 –> 00:25:22,800
which we need a couple of days to really backtrack

728
00:25:22,800 –> 00:25:24,520
into the the specifics for HDB website.

729
00:25:24,520 –> 00:25:27,120
But as *of now, let’s assume that it’s based on completion

730
00:25:27,120 –> 00:25:27,960
of the private property,

731
00:25:27,960 –> 00:25:29,000
which already took 3 months.

732
00:25:29,000 –> 00:25:31,200
You wait for 15 months and then after 15 months

733
00:25:31,200 –> 00:25:32,280
then you’re cleared to buy a HDB,

734
00:25:32,280 –> 00:25:35,080
which it needs about 4 months to complete.

735
00:25:35,080 –> 00:25:35,920
And then you renovate your HDB.

736
00:25:35,920 –> 00:25:38,160
That’s all in about 24 to 25 months.

737
00:25:38,160 –> 00:25:39,320
So technically speaking,

738
00:25:39,320 –> 00:25:43,120
this couple will need to wait for about 24 months

739
00:25:43,120 –> 00:25:44,400
to move into the HDB property.

740
00:25:44,400 –> 00:25:48,080
It might create basically this kind of thinking.

741
00:25:48,080 –> 00:25:49,640
So basically a retiring private property owner

742
00:25:49,640 –> 00:25:52,960
or maybe a couple in their 40s or early 50s,

743
00:25:52,960 –> 00:25:54,800
they’re really planning for a defensive stage and

744
00:25:54,800 –> 00:25:55,640
to pay off a HDB.

745
00:25:55,640 –> 00:25:57,560
They might just buy a condo first

746
00:25:57,560 –> 00:25:59,120
and wait until the measures relax

747
00:25:59,120 –> 00:26:00,160
and then they will then sell a condo

748
00:26:00,160 –> 00:26:01,920
and buy a HDB in the future.

749
00:26:01,920 –> 00:26:04,600
Or they might not sell at all since now it’s such a hassle.

750
00:26:04,600 –> 00:26:07,120
Or they might bite the bullet and rent

751
00:26:07,120 –> 00:26:08,160
and then pass on the cost

752
00:26:08,160 –> 00:26:09,800
and factor that into their current property

753
00:26:09,800 –> 00:26:10,640
that they’re selling.

754
00:26:10,640 –> 00:26:12,160
And basically, even if they were to rent,

755
00:26:12,160 –> 00:26:15,040
it might cause a surge in demand in the rental market.

756
00:26:15,040 –> 00:26:17,120
So as we can see, in summary,

757
00:26:17,120 –> 00:26:19,320
if I were to come back to these three portions here,

758
00:26:19,320 –> 00:26:21,160
the measures that came out couple of days back

759
00:26:21,160 –> 00:26:25,000
is really looking and diving into really managing

760
00:26:25,000 –> 00:26:28,120
the HDB price surge, and it’s really to take care

761
00:26:28,120 –> 00:26:30,080
of the HDB price index movement,

762
00:26:30,080 –> 00:26:31,880
which also will set about a thinker

763
00:26:31,880 –> 00:26:34,640
on this today’s webinar that we’re looking at,

764
00:26:34,640 –> 00:26:36,720
because we are going to talk about parking our capital

765
00:26:36,720 –> 00:26:40,600
in an asset that has one of the higher potentials to move up,

766
00:26:40,600 –> 00:26:42,400
if you have the financial prudence to do so.

767
00:26:42,400 –> 00:26:43,240
So we’re going to continue on,

768
00:26:43,240 –> 00:26:45,200
and let’s have a look at the next slide.

769
00:26:45,200 –> 00:26:47,440
The risk of recession might also cause

770
00:26:47,440 –> 00:26:48,560
some selling pressure.

771
00:26:48,560 –> 00:26:50,960
We want to look at what is going to happen.

772
00:26:50,960 –> 00:26:52,200
After this first introduction,

773
00:26:52,200 –> 00:26:54,520
we will talk about methodology first

774
00:26:54,520 –> 00:26:56,560
and then we will talk about opportunities as well

775
00:26:56,560 –> 00:26:58,240
within all these macro factors.

776
00:26:58,240 –> 00:27:00,040
This is the Singapore GDP growth rate.

777
00:27:00,040 –> 00:27:02,320
However, our Singapore ministry of trade industry

778
00:27:02,320 –> 00:27:05,080
still expects our GDP to grow in 2022,

779
00:27:05,080 –> 00:27:05,920
for the rest of this year

780
00:27:05,920 –> 00:27:07,360
by about 3% to 5%.

781
00:27:07,360 –> 00:27:09,480
Of course recession in Singapore is likely to be delayed

782
00:27:09,480 –> 00:27:12,680
by two to three quarters, if it even happens at all.

783
00:27:12,680 –> 00:27:14,720
So we really need to monitor and see.

784
00:27:14,720 –> 00:27:17,640
So what should be the strategy moving forward

785
00:27:17,640 –> 00:27:18,760
for real estate in Singapore,

786
00:27:18,760 –> 00:27:21,440
especially if you are now in the midst of contemplating

787
00:27:21,440 –> 00:27:24,240
on whether should you hold onto the current property

788
00:27:24,240 –> 00:27:25,280
or properties that you have?

789
00:27:25,280 –> 00:27:26,120
Based on my understanding,

790
00:27:26,120 –> 00:27:28,520
today we have an audience that is comprised

791
00:27:28,520 –> 00:27:30,560
of some of you owning currently your HDB apartments,

792
00:27:30,560 –> 00:27:33,640
some of you are already having your condominiums

793
00:27:33,640 –> 00:27:34,960
and apartment holdings.

794
00:27:34,960 –> 00:27:37,000
You have already perhaps sold off your HDB apartments

795
00:27:37,000 –> 00:27:39,120
and some of you already are owning landed property.

796
00:27:39,120 –> 00:27:41,040
So for today’s context and today’s audience,

797
00:27:41,040 –> 00:27:43,280
what we’re going to do is that we’re going to share strategies

798
00:27:43,280 –> 00:27:46,600
that will hopefully suit every single one of you.

799
00:27:46,600 –> 00:27:48,320
We’re happy to discuss forward on the next steps as well.

800
00:27:48,320 –> 00:27:51,200
Investing in property depends really

801
00:27:51,200 –> 00:27:52,880
on your investment methodology.

802
00:27:52,880 –> 00:27:54,920
I’m going to share some hot truths in the market,

803
00:27:54,920 –> 00:27:57,840
because you’ll usually hear two kinds of advice

804
00:27:57,840 –> 00:28:00,200
in the market whenever you wish to speak to somebody

805
00:28:00,200 –> 00:28:03,880
to just get some advice on whether should you invest

806
00:28:03,880 –> 00:28:04,680
in real estate today,

807
00:28:04,680 –> 00:28:07,080
should you hold on and not do anything

808
00:28:07,080 –> 00:28:08,160
and monitor the market further

809
00:28:08,160 –> 00:28:09,720
or should you sell your property.

810
00:28:09,720 –> 00:28:12,160
Whether you buy, hold or sell,

811
00:28:12,160 –> 00:28:15,160
every single action propels another action.

812
00:28:15,160 –> 00:28:16,000
If you intend to buy,

813
00:28:16,000 –> 00:28:18,160
that might also mean that you need to sell

814
00:28:18,160 –> 00:28:20,320
or you need to maybe decouple from a current property.

815
00:28:20,320 –> 00:28:21,240
If you intend to hold,

816
00:28:21,240 –> 00:28:22,960
that means that you’re not buying and selling,

817
00:28:22,960 –> 00:28:25,880
either action has its own set of risk and opportunity cost.

818
00:28:25,880 –> 00:28:26,920
If you intend to sell,

819
00:28:26,920 –> 00:28:29,480
you also would then need to buy at the next step.

820
00:28:29,480 –> 00:28:32,720
So these two kind of advice are usually in the market

821
00:28:32,720 –> 00:28:35,880
because usually whenever you ask any consultants

822
00:28:35,880 –> 00:28:37,920
or maybe property agents in the market

823
00:28:37,920 –> 00:28:40,120
or maybe ask your mortgage banker,

824
00:28:40,120 –> 00:28:41,400
and they will usually say,

825
00:28:41,400 –> 00:28:43,480
now is of course the right time to buy.

826
00:28:43,480 –> 00:28:45,520
The next set of advice you will hear

827
00:28:45,520 –> 00:28:48,160
is that the best kind of property to buy are new launches.

828
00:28:48,160 –> 00:28:49,640
Whether you go for any kind of seminars, webinar

829
00:28:49,640 –> 00:28:52,760
by any form of investment consultants,

830
00:28:52,760 –> 00:28:55,000
usually it’s about the buy approach.

831
00:28:55,000 –> 00:28:56,800
So what should be the correct advice,

832
00:28:56,800 –> 00:28:57,800
and maybe you might be contemplating

833
00:28:57,800 –> 00:29:00,000
and thinking that this particular webinar

834
00:29:00,000 –> 00:29:01,760
will still be asking yourself to buy.

835
00:29:01,760 –> 00:29:04,280
Usually, the one sided advice in the market

836
00:29:04,280 –> 00:29:06,200
is really about new launches, resale,

837
00:29:06,200 –> 00:29:08,360
not being able to see appreciation.

838
00:29:08,360 –> 00:29:10,320
Is this true or is this not true?

839
00:29:10,320 –> 00:29:11,680
We want to talk about it.

840
00:29:11,680 –> 00:29:14,360
Now, what is a core investment principle?

841
00:29:14,360 –> 00:29:17,720
Everybody is looking for a good return on investment, ROI.

842
00:29:17,720 –> 00:29:19,320
They’re looking for great returns on their capital.

843
00:29:19,320 –> 00:29:21,720
They’re also hoping to invest in a property

844
00:29:21,720 –> 00:29:24,200
that will not stagnate and will not depreciate,

845
00:29:24,200 –> 00:29:25,160
because the moment if you enter

846
00:29:25,160 –> 00:29:26,520
into a property that stagnates,

847
00:29:26,520 –> 00:29:28,000
technically speaking,

848
00:29:28,000 –> 00:29:31,360
your opportunity cost for your investment is at a risk.

849
00:29:31,360 –> 00:29:33,640
And any form of investment that does not appreciate

850
00:29:33,640 –> 00:29:34,840
is a risk by itself,

851
00:29:34,840 –> 00:29:37,080
because the main purpose of entering into an investment

852
00:29:37,080 –> 00:29:38,960
or any kind of asset investment

853
00:29:38,960 –> 00:29:41,400
is to hope that your investment will grow

854
00:29:41,400 –> 00:29:44,520
in terms of its value at the shortest period of time.

855
00:29:44,520 –> 00:29:46,480
And whether is it a mid or long-term investment,

856
00:29:46,480 –> 00:29:49,360
we all hope to have good returns on investment,

857
00:29:49,360 –> 00:29:50,520
and we want to see our property appreciate.

858
00:29:50,520 –> 00:29:52,200
I want to ask you this question,

859
00:29:52,200 –> 00:29:55,800
which investment methodology camp are you in?

860
00:29:55,800 –> 00:29:59,000
Are you in the “when to invest” kind of camp

861
00:29:59,000 –> 00:30:02,520
or are you in the “what to invest” kind of camp?

862
00:30:02,520 –> 00:30:04,480
Now “when to invest” camp,

863
00:30:04,480 –> 00:30:06,840
usually investors in this spectrum,

864
00:30:06,840 –> 00:30:10,560
they are holding the methodology of timing the market.

865
00:30:10,560 –> 00:30:13,040
They’re always hunting for the right timing

866
00:30:13,040 –> 00:30:14,800
for the entire asset class.

867
00:30:14,800 –> 00:30:16,760
So if we’re talking about property investment today,

868
00:30:16,760 –> 00:30:20,960
this camp of investors they will usually want to have

869
00:30:20,960 –> 00:30:22,920
the kind of approach whereby before they enter

870
00:30:22,920 –> 00:30:25,360
into the entire property market,

871
00:30:25,360 –> 00:30:27,440
they want to time the entire market

872
00:30:27,440 –> 00:30:29,200
and they hope to have a good entry timing

873
00:30:29,200 –> 00:30:32,120
in hope of having a good entry price.

874
00:30:32,120 –> 00:30:34,240
Now the other camp, which is the second camp,

875
00:30:34,240 –> 00:30:36,000
is the group investors

876
00:30:36,000 –> 00:30:38,320
that usually have this methodology

877
00:30:38,320 –> 00:30:41,440
of what to invest and not so much about the timing,

878
00:30:41,440 –> 00:30:44,520
but really about buying the right thing in the right season.

879
00:30:44,520 –> 00:30:45,520
And they adopt the methodology

880
00:30:45,520 –> 00:30:47,160
of always staying in the market

881
00:30:47,160 –> 00:30:49,160
and they adopt the methodology as well

882
00:30:49,160 –> 00:30:51,640
of entering to the correct property asset

883
00:30:51,640 –> 00:30:54,400
which is equivalent to entering

884
00:30:54,400 –> 00:30:55,560
at the correct entry price.

885
00:30:55,560 –> 00:30:59,240
So by buying the right thing in every season,

886
00:30:59,240 –> 00:31:01,680
that is already equivalent to entering

887
00:31:01,680 –> 00:31:02,760
into a good entry price,

888
00:31:02,760 –> 00:31:05,480
because property investors in the second camp

889
00:31:05,480 –> 00:31:07,920
adopt the methodology of staying in the market.

890
00:31:07,920 –> 00:31:10,040
So we can analyse all we can,

891
00:31:10,040 –> 00:31:12,760
but one thing that really works against the investors

892
00:31:12,760 –> 00:31:16,240
is time and time is the only thing that we cannot buy back.

893
00:31:16,240 –> 00:31:18,760
And indeed our investment horizon

894
00:31:18,760 –> 00:31:21,320
for every property investment in Singapore is really short.

895
00:31:21,320 –> 00:31:23,600
Now the key rationale is because

896
00:31:23,600 –> 00:31:25,680
of a lot of different kind of cooling measures

897
00:31:25,680 –> 00:31:27,200
and loan measures that we have.

898
00:31:27,200 –> 00:31:29,960
Simply to state, the very first thing that is working against us

899
00:31:29,960 –> 00:31:31,520
is the loan eligibility

900
00:31:31,520 –> 00:31:34,160
in terms of our loan tenure up to the age of 65.

901
00:31:34,160 –> 00:31:36,360
Of course there’s different kinds of techniques

902
00:31:36,360 –> 00:31:38,520
of refinancing, equity term loan and stuff like that

903
00:31:38,520 –> 00:31:39,880
that can extend up to 75,

904
00:31:39,880 –> 00:31:42,000
but we shall not dive into the advanced topic.

905
00:31:42,000 –> 00:31:44,240
We’ll talk about this first set of fundamental

906
00:31:44,240 –> 00:31:45,200
core principles first.

907
00:31:45,200 –> 00:31:47,760
So basically everybody’s looking at roughly

908
00:31:47,760 –> 00:31:50,560
this kind of model, a typical Singapore route,

909
00:31:50,560 –> 00:31:53,480
as what we call, we also call this a passive kind of model

910
00:31:53,480 –> 00:31:55,840
or a do-nothing kind of model as well.

911
00:31:55,840 –> 00:31:58,200
So typically most of the time as a young couple,

912
00:31:58,200 –> 00:32:00,680
they got married, initial working young adults

913
00:32:00,680 –> 00:32:03,440
at perhaps age 25, moving on to age 30,

914
00:32:03,440 –> 00:32:05,880
they usually get settled down within that first 5 years

915
00:32:05,880 –> 00:32:08,720
of working provided they found a suitable partner

916
00:32:08,720 –> 00:32:09,880
during that life stage.

917
00:32:09,880 –> 00:32:12,360
They would then apply for the BTO.

918
00:32:12,360 –> 00:32:14,120
However, build to order (BTO), nowadays will take

919
00:32:14,120 –> 00:32:15,960
at least 4 to 5 years for construction.

920
00:32:15,960 –> 00:32:17,680
Basically, by the time that they get the keys

921
00:32:17,680 –> 00:32:18,920
for their first HDB,

922
00:32:18,920 –> 00:32:21,440
they’re usually at age of about 35 years old.

923
00:32:21,440 –> 00:32:24,120
If they’re going into the brand new kind of HDB apartments

924
00:32:24,120 –> 00:32:25,200
that are not in the resale market.

925
00:32:25,200 –> 00:32:26,440
By the time that they can exit,

926
00:32:26,440 –> 00:32:27,880
they’ll be about 40 years old,

927
00:32:27,880 –> 00:32:29,840
as they go through their family building years

928
00:32:29,840 –> 00:32:31,840
for their career, their kids, and of course,

929
00:32:31,840 –> 00:32:33,560
as life evolves,

930
00:32:33,560 –> 00:32:37,160
usually this spectrum for the next 25 years

931
00:32:37,160 –> 00:32:39,320
will be their core investment,

932
00:32:39,320 –> 00:32:41,720
kind of fundamental longevity.

933
00:32:41,720 –> 00:32:42,840
So if you look at this,

934
00:32:42,840 –> 00:32:45,920
any kind of miss planning during this 25 years

935
00:32:45,920 –> 00:32:48,680
is pretty much a huge opportunity cost

936
00:32:48,680 –> 00:32:50,040
to a typical family in Singapore.

937
00:32:50,040 –> 00:32:52,880
And most of the time by reaching the age of 55

938
00:32:52,880 –> 00:32:55,400
before retirement account starts to be activated on CPF.

939
00:32:55,400 –> 00:32:57,320
But what is going to happen is that

940
00:32:57,320 –> 00:32:58,680
that is of course one of the best times

941
00:32:58,680 –> 00:33:00,320
to kickstart the defensive stage

942
00:33:00,320 –> 00:33:01,480
by holding more liquid asset,

943
00:33:01,480 –> 00:33:04,560
because fundamentally, real estate they are harder assets,

944
00:33:04,560 –> 00:33:06,240
they’re more illiquid in nature.

945
00:33:06,240 –> 00:33:09,000
It takes time to enter, it takes time to exit as well.

946
00:33:09,000 –> 00:33:11,240
But if it is not planned correctly,

947
00:33:11,240 –> 00:33:14,080
it can cause huge investment opportunity mistake.

948
00:33:14,080 –> 00:33:17,280
It can also create a lot of lost opportunities

949
00:33:17,280 –> 00:33:19,840
if this family decides not to do anything

950
00:33:19,840 –> 00:33:21,560
or if they decide to time the market.

951
00:33:21,560 –> 00:33:24,000
And most of the time, a typical projection

952
00:33:24,000 –> 00:33:24,840
will be like this,

953
00:33:24,840 –> 00:33:26,120
your HDB appreciates in pricing

954
00:33:26,120 –> 00:33:27,760
after it hits its MOP for the first 5 years.

955
00:33:27,760 –> 00:33:30,080
If, let’s say the couple decides not to do anything,

956
00:33:30,080 –> 00:33:32,160
usually they will wait for their kids

957
00:33:32,160 –> 00:33:34,360
to start getting married, they start working

958
00:33:34,360 –> 00:33:36,440
and then the couple will then decide to downgrade

959
00:33:36,440 –> 00:33:38,320
to a smaller HDB keeping some of the balance amount

960
00:33:38,320 –> 00:33:39,600
for their retirement.

961
00:33:39,600 –> 00:33:41,920
Of course, by that time when you’re 65 years old,

962
00:33:41,920 –> 00:33:43,720
that’s perhaps maybe about 25 years later,

963
00:33:43,720 –> 00:33:44,560
we’re already into the year.

964
00:33:44,560 –> 00:33:45,760
I don’t know, 2047,

965
00:33:45,760 –> 00:33:49,920
I’m not sure whether $300K balance in this example

966
00:33:49,920 –> 00:33:53,000
is basically enough for a retirement

967
00:33:53,000 –> 00:33:54,400
of about 20 years to go.

968
00:33:54,400 –> 00:33:56,280
With average Singapore life’s expectancy

969
00:33:56,280 –> 00:33:58,640
averaging at about 82 to 85.

970
00:33:58,640 –> 00:34:01,160
Timing the market in our context

971
00:34:01,160 –> 00:34:02,000
is playing with fire.

972
00:34:02,000 –> 00:34:03,440
And why do we say this?

973
00:34:03,440 –> 00:34:05,400
Because while we are timing the market,

974
00:34:05,400 –> 00:34:07,640
thinking about should we sell and hold,

975
00:34:07,640 –> 00:34:09,920
maybe we going rent first and not buy anything,

976
00:34:09,920 –> 00:34:11,240
or should I do nothing?

977
00:34:11,240 –> 00:34:12,560
Basically don’t enter the market first

978
00:34:12,560 –> 00:34:14,160
while trying to think about

979
00:34:14,160 –> 00:34:15,800
what is going to happen next in the market

980
00:34:15,800 –> 00:34:18,160
or should I sell, stay with my parents first?

981
00:34:18,160 –> 00:34:19,640
And now I want to wait for 2, 3 years

982
00:34:19,640 –> 00:34:22,280
and see whether should I enter the market later on

983
00:34:22,280 –> 00:34:23,320
waiting for a recession to happen.

984
00:34:23,320 –> 00:34:26,560
What is technically happening is that while we wait

985
00:34:26,560 –> 00:34:29,320
it’s eating into the years of tenure

986
00:34:29,320 –> 00:34:31,280
that were eligible for borrowing.

987
00:34:31,280 –> 00:34:33,960
This typical matter is really fighting against inflation.

988
00:34:33,960 –> 00:34:35,840
Inflation is happening year-on-year.

989
00:34:35,840 –> 00:34:37,760
It’s also fighting against our own age.

990
00:34:37,760 –> 00:34:39,360
Our own age has huge implication,

991
00:34:39,360 –> 00:34:41,520
because that will translate into higher borrowing costs,

992
00:34:41,520 –> 00:34:43,040
higher instalment and a lesser tenure.

993
00:34:43,040 –> 00:34:47,120
So just an example about this three different entry agea.

994
00:34:47,120 –> 00:34:49,480
If somebody were to choose to enter into a private property

995
00:34:49,480 –> 00:34:52,360
at age 35 versus 45 versus 55,

996
00:34:52,360 –> 00:34:54,720
we’re going to see though this investor

997
00:34:54,720 –> 00:34:59,360
is buying at the same property price, at $1.5 mil,

998
00:34:59,360 –> 00:35:01,960
but a decision to enter at the later stage

999
00:35:01,960 –> 00:35:04,880
of their age category will have huge implication

1000
00:35:04,880 –> 00:35:07,000
in terms of the monthly instalment that they have to service,

1001
00:35:07,000 –> 00:35:09,440
simply because the loan tenure has dipped

1002
00:35:09,440 –> 00:35:10,560
for a longer period of time.

1003
00:35:10,560 –> 00:35:13,960
Not just that, it is also the amount

1004
00:35:13,960 –> 00:35:15,600
that they have to earn more

1005
00:35:15,600 –> 00:35:17,840
to qualify for the same amount of loan.

1006
00:35:17,840 –> 00:35:20,280
So at a 35 years old kind of entry,

1007
00:35:20,280 –> 00:35:22,880
basically this family needs to have a combined income

1008
00:35:22,880 –> 00:35:24,040
of about $10K,

1009
00:35:24,040 –> 00:35:26,960
but just by delaying for another 10 years,

1010
00:35:26,960 –> 00:35:28,240
they’ll have to earn $12K.

1011
00:35:28,240 –> 00:35:30,360
By another 10 years, they’ll have to earn

1012
00:35:30,360 –> 00:35:33,560
at least $20.5K to qualify for the same 75%

1013
00:35:33,560 –> 00:35:35,360
to buy a $1.5 mil property.

1014
00:35:35,360 –> 00:35:38,120
And of course, we’re not putting in any kind of assumption,

1015
00:35:38,120 –> 00:35:40,480
because if we were to put in inflation year-on-year,

1016
00:35:40,480 –> 00:35:42,680
this property would already have appreciated

1017
00:35:42,680 –> 00:35:46,000
for the next 10 to 20 years for any delay in decision.

1018
00:35:46,000 –> 00:35:47,480
And why is it playing with fire?

1019
00:35:47,480 –> 00:35:51,000
Is also because we cannot buy back our age.

1020
00:35:51,000 –> 00:35:53,560
And as time progresses, we age accordingly,

1021
00:35:53,560 –> 00:35:55,880
our tenure drops, our buying power drops.

1022
00:35:55,880 –> 00:35:57,800
In PLB, we hold this methodology

1023
00:35:57,800 –> 00:35:59,520
of not timing the market,

1024
00:35:59,520 –> 00:36:01,720
and most importantly, is not to bet

1025
00:36:01,720 –> 00:36:02,960
with our own stay property.

1026
00:36:02,960 –> 00:36:05,840
We have seen a lot of time when clients come to us,

1027
00:36:05,840 –> 00:36:07,800
they have previously gotten different advisors

1028
00:36:07,800 –> 00:36:09,800
from different people and perhaps some people

1029
00:36:09,800 –> 00:36:10,760
has advised them to sell,

1030
00:36:10,760 –> 00:36:13,520
and maybe wait and to time the market

1031
00:36:13,520 –> 00:36:14,600
hoping that prices will come down.

1032
00:36:14,600 –> 00:36:16,200
But after about 24 months of renting,

1033
00:36:16,200 –> 00:36:18,600
they realise that they’re being priced out of the market

1034
00:36:18,600 –> 00:36:20,400
and come to us for help and see what they can do

1035
00:36:20,400 –> 00:36:21,640
to enter back into the market.

1036
00:36:21,640 –> 00:36:25,280
But most importantly is that when you are timing the market,

1037
00:36:25,280 –> 00:36:26,320
especially if it’s an own-stay property,

1038
00:36:26,320 –> 00:36:28,440
sometimes you get priced out of the market

1039
00:36:28,440 –> 00:36:30,600
and you have to reenter at a higher cost.

1040
00:36:30,600 –> 00:36:34,160
And then that might also result in buying out of anxiousness.

1041
00:36:34,160 –> 00:36:35,840
And that is something that we want to avoid,

1042
00:36:35,840 –> 00:36:37,280
especially if it’s our own-stay property.

1043
00:36:37,280 –> 00:36:39,200
If it’s your investment property though,

1044
00:36:39,200 –> 00:36:41,280
we advise not to time the market.

1045
00:36:41,280 –> 00:36:42,320
But for investment property,

1046
00:36:42,320 –> 00:36:44,160
there’s lesser emotions involved.

1047
00:36:44,160 –> 00:36:46,400
Basically, there’s more judgment involved

1048
00:36:46,400 –> 00:36:47,520
in terms of analysis.

1049
00:36:47,520 –> 00:36:50,120
There’s lesser kind of like your own family preferences

1050
00:36:50,120 –> 00:36:51,680
being put into the investment property.

1051
00:36:51,680 –> 00:36:54,080
So most importantly is to buy the right thing

1052
00:36:54,080 –> 00:36:55,520
in every season and to buy

1053
00:36:55,520 –> 00:36:57,200
the correct type of property asset type,

1054
00:36:57,200 –> 00:37:00,280
and that’s as good as entering at the correct entry price.

1055
00:37:00,280 –> 00:37:01,240
By staying in the market,

1056
00:37:01,240 –> 00:37:02,760
can also build wealth for inflation

1057
00:37:02,760 –> 00:37:05,720
is basically to analyse the right kind of products

1058
00:37:05,720 –> 00:37:06,840
in the right season.

1059
00:37:06,840 –> 00:37:10,120
This is basically to sum up our investment methodology.

1060
00:37:10,120 –> 00:37:12,360
We hold the methodology that timing in the market

1061
00:37:12,360 –> 00:37:14,720
is more risky than staying in the market,

1062
00:37:14,720 –> 00:37:16,960
because of the fact that Singapore is really different.

1063
00:37:16,960 –> 00:37:19,600
And later we’re going to dive in to really understand

1064
00:37:19,600 –> 00:37:21,840
about this statement on why Singapore real estate market

1065
00:37:21,840 –> 00:37:24,800
is different and every season has its own disparity.

1066
00:37:24,800 –> 00:37:27,000
So the most important thing is to hunt for the disparity

1067
00:37:27,000 –> 00:37:28,080
in this season.

1068
00:37:28,080 –> 00:37:31,200
So for example, in 2022, hunt for the type of real estate

1069
00:37:31,200 –> 00:37:34,360
that has the best potential to move up in the next league,

1070
00:37:34,360 –> 00:37:36,480
in the next 12 to 18 months

1071
00:37:36,480 –> 00:37:38,360
rather than staying out of the market,

1072
00:37:38,360 –> 00:37:40,760
because every season everything moves differently

1073
00:37:40,760 –> 00:37:43,480
and different types of properties takes turn to move.

1074
00:37:43,480 –> 00:37:45,320
Certain properties will move up first

1075
00:37:45,320 –> 00:37:47,640
and then in the next season, that type of property

1076
00:37:47,640 –> 00:37:51,000
becomes the next leg to move up in conjunction

1077
00:37:51,000 –> 00:37:53,400
with this first type of property moving upwards.

1078
00:37:53,400 –> 00:37:55,080
Later, we’re going to talk a lot about this.

1079
00:37:55,080 –> 00:37:57,800
Most importantly, is to buy the right thing in every season

1080
00:37:57,800 –> 00:37:59,960
and to always hunt for disparity

1081
00:37:59,960 –> 00:38:02,960
and to not exit hastily,

1082
00:38:02,960 –> 00:38:05,120
because when you exit and enter,

1083
00:38:05,120 –> 00:38:07,520
take note that every entry and exit,

1084
00:38:07,520 –> 00:38:09,840
you have a total cost of 6%,

1085
00:38:09,840 –> 00:38:10,720
because when you exit,

1086
00:38:10,720 –> 00:38:12,560
you have to pay, of course, agency fees,

1087
00:38:12,560 –> 00:38:15,080
profession fees to your broker to market the property

1088
00:38:15,080 –> 00:38:16,080
to its fullest potential.

1089
00:38:16,080 –> 00:38:17,480
And then when you reenter,

1090
00:38:17,480 –> 00:38:19,760
you have to pay another 3% to 4% Buyer’s Stamp Duty

1091
00:38:19,760 –> 00:38:20,720
plus legal fee and things like that.

1092
00:38:20,720 –> 00:38:22,880
So every exit and entry is 6%.

1093
00:38:22,880 –> 00:38:27,560
So do not exit hastily and you need to enter with wisdom.

1094
00:38:27,560 –> 00:38:30,080
And you need to enter with a lot of research that’s being done,

1095
00:38:30,080 –> 00:38:32,480
we use a combination of these four tools basically

1096
00:38:32,480 –> 00:38:35,240
to quantify and to make sense of the numbers.

1097
00:38:35,240 –> 00:38:37,880
This is so that we do not need to depend

1098
00:38:37,880 –> 00:38:39,760
on the bull market to exit,

1099
00:38:39,760 –> 00:38:42,960
and we can enter with certainty by staying in the market.

1100
00:38:42,960 –> 00:38:44,960
And we also have an ease of exit

1101
00:38:44,960 –> 00:38:47,560
by really marketing the property to its fullest potential.

1102
00:38:47,560 –> 00:38:51,080
So this is our overall investment strategy and methodology.

1103
00:38:51,080 –> 00:38:53,160
One of the two that were developed in 2022

1104
00:38:53,160 –> 00:38:57,080
is this very interesting tool that draws,

1105
00:38:57,080 –> 00:38:59,440
is being fed with data every quarter

1106
00:38:59,440 –> 00:39:00,920
or on a month-to-month basis,

1107
00:39:00,920 –> 00:39:02,240
wherever there’s fresh data available.

1108
00:39:02,240 –> 00:39:04,560
And we call it our own proprietary tool.

1109
00:39:04,560 –> 00:39:05,720
It’s a combination of tech and analytics,

1110
00:39:05,720 –> 00:39:07,920
it’s called our MOAT Analysis.

1111
00:39:07,920 –> 00:39:09,480
So it has 10 different factors,

1112
00:39:09,480 –> 00:39:11,720
is basically to help our property investors and buyers

1113
00:39:11,720 –> 00:39:15,080
to make sense and compare all the 2,600 properties

1114
00:39:15,080 –> 00:39:17,720
in Singapore, because sometimes it can be quite daunting

1115
00:39:17,720 –> 00:39:20,000
to compare projects based on regions,

1116
00:39:20,000 –> 00:39:21,920
based on districts, based on micro district.

1117
00:39:21,920 –> 00:39:23,840
You perhaps have really shortlisted

1118
00:39:23,840 –> 00:39:24,640
about 5 to 10 properties

1119
00:39:24,640 –> 00:39:26,240
that you want to really compare their scoring,

1120
00:39:26,240 –> 00:39:27,960
and this is how we help our clients

1121
00:39:27,960 –> 00:39:29,280
to make sense of numbers.

1122
00:39:29,280 –> 00:39:30,800
So what kind of properties should we hold

1123
00:39:30,800 –> 00:39:33,640
to be ready for 2025 to 2030?

1124
00:39:33,640 –> 00:39:36,840
Why is it that I indicated here 2025 to 2030,

1125
00:39:36,840 –> 00:39:38,920
because something’s gotta happen in 2030.

1126
00:39:38,920 –> 00:39:40,640
This is not a new kind of news.

1127
00:39:40,640 –> 00:39:42,080
This is really old news,

1128
00:39:42,080 –> 00:39:44,200
because this news was released during 2013

1129
00:39:44,200 –> 00:39:46,560
on the plans for population.

1130
00:39:46,560 –> 00:39:47,720
And we want to talk about this

1131
00:39:47,720 –> 00:39:51,000
because we need to think about what kind of properties

1132
00:39:51,000 –> 00:39:55,280
should we hold now to be ready for 2025 to 2030.

1133
00:39:55,280 –> 00:39:57,160
Everybody’s looking at these four types of properties in Singapore,

1134
00:39:57,160 –> 00:39:58,400
but for today’s context,

1135
00:39:58,400 –> 00:40:00,600
we will talk about these three types

1136
00:40:00,600 –> 00:40:01,720
of residential properties,

1137
00:40:01,720 –> 00:40:03,040
because I think this is what

1138
00:40:03,040 –> 00:40:04,200
you want to be answered the most.

1139
00:40:04,200 –> 00:40:06,680
Landed, condos and HDB,

1140
00:40:06,680 –> 00:40:08,960
you will notice that in terms of the price movement,

1141
00:40:08,960 –> 00:40:11,080
they seem to be in sync with one another

1142
00:40:11,080 –> 00:40:12,680
after a certain period of year

1143
00:40:12,680 –> 00:40:15,920
due to the cooling measures and the new behaviours of policies

1144
00:40:15,920 –> 00:40:18,400
that has already created new buying behaviours

1145
00:40:18,400 –> 00:40:19,760
and selling behaviours in Singapore.

1146
00:40:19,760 –> 00:40:23,040
We want to look at demand and supply push-and-pull factors,

1147
00:40:23,040 –> 00:40:25,400
because whatever macro factors is happening globally

1148
00:40:25,400 –> 00:40:28,080
and in Singapore and micro factors happening in Singapore,

1149
00:40:28,080 –> 00:40:32,000
they translate into movements in demand and supply

1150
00:40:32,000 –> 00:40:32,960
in the property market.

1151
00:40:32,960 –> 00:40:35,600
Very importantly, macro factors,

1152
00:40:35,600 –> 00:40:36,920
everybody knows that right now,

1153
00:40:36,920 –> 00:40:38,720
Singapore is of a safe haven status.

1154
00:40:38,720 –> 00:40:39,840
In fact, when we share our clients state,

1155
00:40:39,840 –> 00:40:42,880
one of the key rationales of buying properties in Singapore

1156
00:40:42,880 –> 00:40:45,360
is because if we don’t buy our own properties,

1157
00:40:45,360 –> 00:40:47,080
a lot of foreign investors and foreign buyers,

1158
00:40:47,080 –> 00:40:49,800
they are aiming at our properties consistently.

1159
00:40:49,800 –> 00:40:51,760
On a global level, everybody’s looking

1160
00:40:51,760 –> 00:40:54,600
to park their funds and capital in a country

1161
00:40:54,600 –> 00:40:56,720
that has attained sort of like a safe haven,

1162
00:40:56,720 –> 00:40:59,360
kind of status, not just in terms of stability,

1163
00:40:59,360 –> 00:41:02,160
but our government, but in terms of continuous growth,

1164
00:41:02,160 –> 00:41:03,280
that our government is continuing to put in

1165
00:41:03,280 –> 00:41:04,760
into the landscape in Singapore.

1166
00:41:04,760 –> 00:41:08,200
In fact, our land planning in terms of URA Master Plan,

1167
00:41:08,200 –> 00:41:09,040
they’re doing such a great job

1168
00:41:09,040 –> 00:41:11,560
developing different parts of Singapore aggressively,

1169
00:41:11,560 –> 00:41:13,160
of course our transportation network.

1170
00:41:13,160 –> 00:41:14,600
If you can see the latest announcement

1171
00:41:14,600 –> 00:41:16,400
for our Cross Island Line,

1172
00:41:16,400 –> 00:41:19,360
everything is planned in such a meticulous fashion

1173
00:41:19,360 –> 00:41:22,400
and every singular zonings are prime for growth.

1174
00:41:22,400 –> 00:41:24,520
So most importantly, adding globally

1175
00:41:24,520 –> 00:41:27,320
our currency strength has also worked to our advantage.

1176
00:41:27,320 –> 00:41:30,120
But that also means that investors around our region,

1177
00:41:30,120 –> 00:41:31,200
they are constantly thinking of ways

1178
00:41:31,200 –> 00:41:32,720
to put their capital right here,

1179
00:41:32,720 –> 00:41:35,120
because our currency strength is growing in conjunction

1180
00:41:35,120 –> 00:41:36,840
against their native currency.

1181
00:41:36,840 –> 00:41:39,800
So for example, a lot of our Indonesian clients,

1182
00:41:39,800 –> 00:41:41,520
they are really hold multiple properties in Singapore.

1183
00:41:41,520 –> 00:41:42,800
They’re not selling their properties now,

1184
00:41:42,800 –> 00:41:45,440
the key rationale is because they are really in need

1185
00:41:45,440 –> 00:41:46,560
for our currency strength.

1186
00:41:46,560 –> 00:41:48,440
Our investors are telling us that every time

1187
00:41:48,440 –> 00:41:50,600
our currency increases in terms of value,

1188
00:41:50,600 –> 00:41:53,000
it is so wonderful for their property investment right here,

1189
00:41:53,000 –> 00:41:54,200
because even if they sell their property,

1190
00:41:54,200 –> 00:41:57,320
years down the road at the same entry price

1191
00:41:57,320 –> 00:41:58,560
that they entered into to the Singapore property market,

1192
00:41:58,560 –> 00:42:00,320
they’re still going to make a gain,

1193
00:42:00,320 –> 00:42:02,560
because when they convert back to their own native currency,

1194
00:42:02,560 –> 00:42:05,400
that is a gain in currency strength for them.

1195
00:42:05,400 –> 00:42:08,240
External, internal factors. I’m going to separate for you

1196
00:42:08,240 –> 00:42:09,920
in terms of macro, in terms of micro.

1197
00:42:09,920 –> 00:42:11,960
Macro factors: Strong, because Singapore

1198
00:42:11,960 –> 00:42:13,800
is a safe haven right now,

1199
00:42:13,800 –> 00:42:15,440
great store of value as a country.

1200
00:42:15,440 –> 00:42:18,200
And we want to dive into the micro factors,

1201
00:42:18,200 –> 00:42:20,840
because that would then help us to decipher

1202
00:42:20,840 –> 00:42:22,160
the behaviour right now

1203
00:42:22,160 –> 00:42:24,720
and the possible behaviour in the next 12 to 18 months.

1204
00:42:24,720 –> 00:42:25,720
So answering back this question,

1205
00:42:25,720 –> 00:42:28,200
what kind of properties that we want to hold

1206
00:42:28,200 –> 00:42:30,440
is very dependent on the demographics

1207
00:42:30,440 –> 00:42:34,240
that is going to happen in the next 5 to 8 years.

1208
00:42:34,240 –> 00:42:37,280
And by 2030, very likely this is going to be attained

1209
00:42:37,280 –> 00:42:39,600
with about 6.9 mil, this is our population.

1210
00:42:39,600 –> 00:42:40,960
But to deep dive a little bit,

1211
00:42:40,960 –> 00:42:43,480
one level downwards is to look at the kind of demographics

1212
00:42:43,480 –> 00:42:46,440
that will be in Singapore in terms of population.

1213
00:42:46,440 –> 00:42:49,600
So we’re going to have 50% Singaporeans, 50% foreigners.

1214
00:42:49,600 –> 00:42:51,320
And that means that when we walk on the streets,

1215
00:42:51,320 –> 00:42:54,440
every 2 people we meet, one is a Singaporean, one is a foreigner,

1216
00:42:54,440 –> 00:42:56,600
and of course this is a needed process

1217
00:42:56,600 –> 00:42:57,760
because of our dropping birth rate.

1218
00:42:57,760 –> 00:42:59,280
A lot of global cities

1219
00:42:59,280 –> 00:43:01,120
they’re all fighting a dropping birth rate,

1220
00:43:01,120 –> 00:43:04,200
one the key kind of fundamental policies

1221
00:43:04,200 –> 00:43:05,280
that our government has already planned for

1222
00:43:05,280 –> 00:43:08,440
is drawing talents and drawing new population

1223
00:43:08,440 –> 00:43:09,280
into Singapore.

1224
00:43:09,280 –> 00:43:11,240
Taking a look at this in terms of population,

1225
00:43:11,240 –> 00:43:13,480
that’s going to be the new demand that will come in

1226
00:43:13,480 –> 00:43:16,320
and it is going to be a consistent year-on-year growth.

1227
00:43:16,320 –> 00:43:18,280
So right now in year 2022,

1228
00:43:18,280 –> 00:43:21,400
we’re already having about 5.9+ mil in terms of population.

1229
00:43:21,400 –> 00:43:24,080
So we’re on track to 6 mil and then 6.9 mil.

1230
00:43:24,080 –> 00:43:26,440
We want to then take the next step to decipher

1231
00:43:26,440 –> 00:43:28,120
what is the existing housing stock,

1232
00:43:28,120 –> 00:43:29,960
because that help us to answer whether

1233
00:43:29,960 –> 00:43:31,920
can our existing supply fulfil the demand

1234
00:43:31,920 –> 00:43:33,040
that is coming in?

1235
00:43:33,040 –> 00:43:35,160
So largest available stock in Singapore,

1236
00:43:35,160 –> 00:43:36,640
basically the entire island,

1237
00:43:36,640 –> 00:43:39,720
we have close about 1.1 mil of housing stock

1238
00:43:39,720 –> 00:43:40,560
for HDB apartments.

1239
00:43:40,560 –> 00:43:43,080
We have about 340K in terms of housing stock

1240
00:43:43,080 –> 00:43:44,920
for private condominiums and apartments.

1241
00:43:44,920 –> 00:43:49,000
And we have about 73K to 75K landed properties,

1242
00:43:49,000 –> 00:43:51,280
and that made out the entire landscape

1243
00:43:51,280 –> 00:43:52,400
of housing stock in Singapore.

1244
00:43:52,400 –> 00:43:54,080
We have close to about 1.5 mil.

1245
00:43:54,080 –> 00:43:56,800
If I were to break down into micro segments for you,

1246
00:43:56,800 –> 00:43:59,000
and later I’ll share with you why I want to break down

1247
00:43:59,000 –> 00:44:00,000
this huge table.

1248
00:44:00,000 –> 00:44:01,080
It might look a little bit complicated here,

1249
00:44:01,080 –> 00:44:02,360
but I’m going to break down for you

1250
00:44:02,360 –> 00:44:04,360
based on HDB, condos and landed.

1251
00:44:04,360 –> 00:44:05,680
Let’s take a look at HDB first,

1252
00:44:05,680 –> 00:44:07,000
and I have trended the years

1253
00:44:07,000 –> 00:44:11,000
to see in terms of Return on Investment (ROI) for the past 7 years.

1254
00:44:11,000 –> 00:44:12,920
But just a little bit of back brief history,

1255
00:44:12,920 –> 00:44:15,840
basically in 1995, a BTO would’ve cost +/-

1256
00:44:15,840 –> 00:44:17,240
about ~$100K.

1257
00:44:17,240 –> 00:44:19,200
And then basically this is the second category

1258
00:44:19,200 –> 00:44:22,280
is a just newly MOP-ed HDB, that means property

1259
00:44:22,280 –> 00:44:24,360
has just hit its 5 years MOP mark.

1260
00:44:24,360 –> 00:44:26,120
The first time owners are then eligible

1261
00:44:26,120 –> 00:44:27,040
to sell in the market.

1262
00:44:27,040 –> 00:44:29,480
This is of course existing 5-room Ang Mo Kio HDB

1263
00:44:29,480 –> 00:44:31,200
that was being created in 1980s

1264
00:44:31,200 –> 00:44:35,400
and that will be about ~$400K in 1995, estimated.

1265
00:44:35,400 –> 00:44:39,560
Fast forward to 2015, this is the pricing to 2020, 2021.

1266
00:44:39,560 –> 00:44:40,800
And why do we want to showcase this?

1267
00:44:40,800 –> 00:44:43,200
Because that was the period of the pandemic.

1268
00:44:43,200 –> 00:44:44,040
This is the current year

1269
00:44:44,040 –> 00:44:47,640
in terms of this current estimated transacted pricing.

1270
00:44:47,640 –> 00:44:48,640
Based on this, we want to break down

1271
00:44:48,640 –> 00:44:51,760
into the percentage increase over the past 7 years

1272
00:44:51,760 –> 00:44:53,840
since 2015 to 2022,

1273
00:44:53,840 –> 00:44:56,680
and the quantum increase for the past 7 years as well.

1274
00:44:56,680 –> 00:44:57,840
And as you can see,

1275
00:44:57,840 –> 00:45:00,560
this does not mean that if you continue to hold

1276
00:45:00,560 –> 00:45:01,880
onto your MOP-ed property,

1277
00:45:01,880 –> 00:45:04,280
it would have appreciated by $200K.

1278
00:45:04,280 –> 00:45:07,600
Doesn’t mean that. It just means that in 2015 a typical,

1279
00:45:07,600 –> 00:45:09,240
just newly MOP-ed property will go in the market

1280
00:45:09,240 –> 00:45:10,880
for about $500K.

1281
00:45:10,880 –> 00:45:15,080
A typical 2022 MOP-ed property, just hit its MOP,

1282
00:45:15,080 –> 00:45:16,720
5 years fresh out in the market

1283
00:45:16,720 –> 00:45:20,120
will be at about ~$700K in the OCR district.

1284
00:45:20,120 –> 00:45:23,920
Why do I have this disclaimer is because MOP-ed HDB

1285
00:45:23,920 –> 00:45:24,960
behaves a little bit differently,

1286
00:45:24,960 –> 00:45:26,960
because if you are in the new estate, for example,

1287
00:45:26,960 –> 00:45:29,600
if you are in, let’s say, brand new town in the northeast,

1288
00:45:29,600 –> 00:45:31,320
your property just its 5 year MOP mark,

1289
00:45:31,320 –> 00:45:33,880
and you decide to delay the decision to sell in the market

1290
00:45:33,880 –> 00:45:35,080
and you want to wait for another 2 years.

1291
00:45:35,080 –> 00:45:37,320
What might or might not happen in the next 2 years

1292
00:45:37,320 –> 00:45:40,760
is that there’ll be fresh clusters of MOP-ed HDB

1293
00:45:40,760 –> 00:45:42,120
that will hit its brand new 5 years.

1294
00:45:42,120 –> 00:45:45,160
And most of the time, newly MOP-ed 5 years HDBs,

1295
00:45:45,160 –> 00:45:47,280
they will definitely be the cream of the crop

1296
00:45:47,280 –> 00:45:48,920
to be able to attain the best pricing,

1297
00:45:48,920 –> 00:45:50,640
because they are the newest kid on the block.

1298
00:45:50,640 –> 00:45:54,200
And of course, your’s will be an older bath of MOP-ed HDB.

1299
00:45:54,200 –> 00:45:55,960
So this is just something for you to take note of

1300
00:45:55,960 –> 00:45:57,720
in terms of the pricing behaviour.

1301
00:45:57,720 –> 00:45:58,760
Let’s have a look at next one,

1302
00:45:58,760 –> 00:46:00,080
which is the condo pricing.

1303
00:46:00,080 –> 00:46:01,320
Through the different seasons,

1304
00:46:01,320 –> 00:46:04,800
of course, from 1995, this 2015, 2020,

1305
00:46:04,800 –> 00:46:08,200
2021 and, of course 2022, percentage increased.

1306
00:46:08,200 –> 00:46:09,520
And as you can see,

1307
00:46:09,520 –> 00:46:12,080
new launch has moved leaps and bounds.

1308
00:46:12,080 –> 00:46:13,320
From 2015 you can get a typical new launch

1309
00:46:13,320 –> 00:46:16,840
at about $1,000 PSF to $1,200 PSF in the OCR region

1310
00:46:16,840 –> 00:46:21,680
and then $1,600 PSF to $1,800 PSF OCR RCR in 2020, 2021.

1311
00:46:21,680 –> 00:46:22,520
And right now as we speak,

1312
00:46:22,520 –> 00:46:24,360
new launches are already above

1313
00:46:24,360 –> 00:46:26,360
the $2,000 PSF mark typically.

1314
00:46:26,360 –> 00:46:30,840
Resale, pretty new condo at Sims Urban Oasis at D14,

1315
00:46:30,840 –> 00:46:33,160
just for illustration sake, basically in 2017,

1316
00:46:33,160 –> 00:46:37,960
this is 2020 and this is 2022 also increased by about 22%

1317
00:46:37,960 –> 00:46:40,160
in terms of its quantum and PSF price.

1318
00:46:40,160 –> 00:46:43,160
For Mandarin Gardens, a huge 3-bedder,

1319
00:46:43,160 –> 00:46:45,440
though it’s very old, having a balance lease of 59 years,

1320
00:46:45,440 –> 00:46:48,160
It still increased by about 37% over the past 7 years.

1321
00:46:48,160 –> 00:46:50,360
And in fact, if you have bought into Mandarin Gardens

1322
00:46:50,360 –> 00:46:53,800
just in 2015, you have made yourself

1323
00:46:53,800 –> 00:46:56,000
close to about $550K in terms of quantum gain.

1324
00:46:56,000 –> 00:46:57,720
If you have just bought last year,

1325
00:46:57,720 –> 00:47:00,800
in the early part 2021, up till now,

1326
00:47:00,800 –> 00:47:02,760
you have already seen close about $300K

1327
00:47:02,760 –> 00:47:05,480
in terms of quantum appreciation.

1328
00:47:05,480 –> 00:47:06,440
And one of the key rationales

1329
00:47:06,440 –> 00:47:08,360
is because this is of a huge size,

1330
00:47:08,360 –> 00:47:10,880
so every $100 PSF upward momentum

1331
00:47:10,880 –> 00:47:11,920
is going to create a huge

1332
00:47:11,920 –> 00:47:14,600
and larger amount of quantum price increase.

1333
00:47:14,600 –> 00:47:16,480
Last but not least, we got landed properties,

1334
00:47:16,480 –> 00:47:19,080
if you look at the detached home and the inter-terrace home,

1335
00:47:19,080 –> 00:47:20,280
if you have entered into the landed market,

1336
00:47:20,280 –> 00:47:22,720
just like when we have done one of the content

1337
00:47:22,720 –> 00:47:25,040
that we released during Circuit Breaker in 2020,

1338
00:47:25,040 –> 00:47:26,840
you can scroll back to our YouTube channel,

1339
00:47:26,840 –> 00:47:29,280
during April to June period 2020,

1340
00:47:29,280 –> 00:47:31,560
we released a video advising our clients,

1341
00:47:31,560 –> 00:47:32,720
and in fact, it’s a public video.

1342
00:47:32,720 –> 00:47:34,800
We advise our clients to get into the landed market

1343
00:47:34,800 –> 00:47:36,080
because based on our research,

1344
00:47:36,080 –> 00:47:37,560
we realised there’s a disparity effect

1345
00:47:37,560 –> 00:47:40,400
happening in the inter-terrace landed market.

1346
00:47:40,400 –> 00:47:42,600
Back then every inter-terrace was available

1347
00:47:42,600 –> 00:47:45,080
in the OCR market at about $2.5 mil to $2.8 mil.

1348
00:47:45,080 –> 00:47:46,280
For a lot of clients that have followed suit

1349
00:47:46,280 –> 00:47:47,720
on our advice they entered into the market,

1350
00:47:47,720 –> 00:47:50,160
right now, properties have already appreciated

1351
00:47:50,160 –> 00:47:51,440
close to about $1 mil

1352
00:47:51,440 –> 00:47:53,000
in just the past 18 months.

1353
00:47:53,000 –> 00:47:55,520
Well of course, if you bought in at about 2015,

1354
00:47:55,520 –> 00:47:58,320
you’d have seen close to about a 100% appreciation already.

1355
00:47:58,320 –> 00:48:01,160
Detached homes, of course naturally appreciation is bigger

1356
00:48:01,160 –> 00:48:02,120
because of the bigger size,

1357
00:48:02,120 –> 00:48:04,040
and we’re talking about the freehold

1358
00:48:04,040 –> 00:48:05,720
and 999-year landed properties.

1359
00:48:05,720 –> 00:48:08,040
So all in all, what does this tell us?

1360
00:48:08,040 –> 00:48:11,400
This tells us in combination a little bit of our insight

1361
00:48:11,400 –> 00:48:14,720
about what kind of property will perform

1362
00:48:14,720 –> 00:48:17,760
at a faster and a bigger quantum ROI rate.

1363
00:48:17,760 –> 00:48:19,600
And that is important, because if

1364
00:48:19,600 –> 00:48:22,080
let’s say if we have the financial capability to do so,

1365
00:48:22,080 –> 00:48:24,760
if we have the borrowing ability to leverage

1366
00:48:24,760 –> 00:48:27,360
on property being a healthy investment,

1367
00:48:27,360 –> 00:48:30,480
and furthermore if it’s going to be the property

1368
00:48:30,480 –> 00:48:31,520
that you are living in

1369
00:48:31,520 –> 00:48:33,720
but yet allowing your capital to grow

1370
00:48:33,720 –> 00:48:36,680
or the profit from your previous investment

1371
00:48:36,680 –> 00:48:38,280
to lump into this current property,

1372
00:48:38,280 –> 00:48:40,400
then this gives us a little bit of insight

1373
00:48:40,400 –> 00:48:43,000
on what kind of residential property

1374
00:48:43,000 –> 00:48:44,920
should we park our capital in.

1375
00:48:44,920 –> 00:48:46,720
Because that will basically be

1376
00:48:46,720 –> 00:48:48,600
one of the largest opportunity costs

1377
00:48:48,600 –> 00:48:49,640
that you need to look at.

1378
00:48:49,640 –> 00:48:51,720
Because going back to that portion that we talked about,

1379
00:48:51,720 –> 00:48:54,040
our investment horizon is largely limited

1380
00:48:54,040 –> 00:48:56,520
for the next ~10 to 20-over years.

1381
00:48:56,520 –> 00:48:57,880
So coming back to the population chart,

1382
00:48:57,880 –> 00:49:01,320
this highlighted boxes will then signify

1383
00:49:01,320 –> 00:49:02,400
a little bit more insight as well

1384
00:49:02,400 –> 00:49:04,760
as we go further and further into this seminar.

1385
00:49:04,760 –> 00:49:08,960
Condominiums, having only 340K in terms of its supply,

1386
00:49:08,960 –> 00:49:11,320
which is about 20% of all housing stock in Singapore,

1387
00:49:11,320 –> 00:49:14,240
this is the only category that has an international audience.

1388
00:49:14,240 –> 00:49:15,280
So Singaporeans are allowed to buy

1389
00:49:15,280 –> 00:49:17,480
and in fact it’s a Singaporeans’s aspiration

1390
00:49:17,480 –> 00:49:18,600
to want to upgrade to a private property.

1391
00:49:18,600 –> 00:49:20,120
PRs are allowed to buy.

1392
00:49:20,120 –> 00:49:22,640
Foreigners in Singapore are allowed to buy.

1393
00:49:22,640 –> 00:49:24,240
Foreigners and investors not in Singapore

1394
00:49:24,240 –> 00:49:25,600
are also allowed to buy.

1395
00:49:25,600 –> 00:49:27,360
And of course landed properties,

1396
00:49:27,360 –> 00:49:29,520
only 5% of the overall housing stock

1397
00:49:29,520 –> 00:49:31,560
catering to 3.5 mil Singaporeans,

1398
00:49:31,560 –> 00:49:34,160
this will still remain as one of the blue chips

1399
00:49:34,160 –> 00:49:36,120
kind of property investments in Singapore.

1400
00:49:36,120 –> 00:49:37,280
So based on what you have seen,

1401
00:49:37,280 –> 00:49:40,560
this is our advice and methodology

1402
00:49:40,560 –> 00:49:43,080
is that if financial capabilities allow,

1403
00:49:43,080 –> 00:49:46,000
do park your capital and gains from your current

1404
00:49:46,000 –> 00:49:48,120
or previous asset into the next asset

1405
00:49:48,120 –> 00:49:49,320
with a stronger holding power,

1406
00:49:49,320 –> 00:49:50,160
because most importantly

1407
00:49:50,160 –> 00:49:53,840
is that you want to park your capital in a property asset

1408
00:49:53,840 –> 00:49:55,840
that has a lesser supply

1409
00:49:55,840 –> 00:49:57,000
out of the overall housing stocks in Singapore

1410
00:49:57,000 –> 00:49:59,120
and with a growing demand.

1411
00:49:59,120 –> 00:50:01,560
And you also want to park your capital in the asset type,

1412
00:50:01,560 –> 00:50:02,880
in terms of its property arena

1413
00:50:02,880 –> 00:50:05,360
with international audience and flexibility

1414
00:50:05,360 –> 00:50:06,320
in terms of equity usage.

1415
00:50:06,320 –> 00:50:09,320
And what do I mean by flexibility in terms of equity usage,

1416
00:50:09,320 –> 00:50:13,000
is that HDB only allows you to touch your gain

1417
00:50:13,000 –> 00:50:15,560
and your equity by killing the golden goose.

1418
00:50:15,560 –> 00:50:17,040
And later we’ll talk a little bit more

1419
00:50:17,040 –> 00:50:18,600
about what do you mean by killing the golden goose,

1420
00:50:18,600 –> 00:50:20,800
means that not to enjoy the appreciation

1421
00:50:20,800 –> 00:50:22,400
that you enjoy right now in your HDB apartment,

1422
00:50:22,400 –> 00:50:24,080
you have to definitely sell it.

1423
00:50:24,080 –> 00:50:26,040
But for the case of private condominiums and landed,

1424
00:50:26,040 –> 00:50:28,800
you don’t really have to sell property to enjoy its equity.

1425
00:50:28,800 –> 00:50:29,960
So we’ll talk more about that.

1426
00:50:29,960 –> 00:50:31,280
Some micro factors as well.

1427
00:50:31,280 –> 00:50:32,080
We’re going to dive deep in.

1428
00:50:32,080 –> 00:50:34,480
This whole spectrum of cooling measures

1429
00:50:34,480 –> 00:50:36,440
have created new behaviours,

1430
00:50:36,440 –> 00:50:37,600
and we’re talking about brand new behaviours,

1431
00:50:37,600 –> 00:50:39,680
and this is one of the key backdrop

1432
00:50:39,680 –> 00:50:41,960
about why Singapore’s property market is vastly different

1433
00:50:41,960 –> 00:50:43,880
from the rest of the world, because we have

1434
00:50:43,880 –> 00:50:46,440
close about 12 to 13 rounds of cooling measures

1435
00:50:46,440 –> 00:50:50,440
being priced and packaged into our price indexes.

1436
00:50:50,440 –> 00:50:54,400
That means that our government has additional tools

1437
00:50:54,400 –> 00:50:56,800
to resuscitate the market in the event

1438
00:50:56,800 –> 00:50:59,480
if let’s say anything were to happen drastically

1439
00:50:59,480 –> 00:51:01,160
to the property prices in Singapore.

1440
00:51:01,160 –> 00:51:02,240
So it means that at any point in time,

1441
00:51:02,240 –> 00:51:04,800
if there’s going to be a potential shock dip,

1442
00:51:04,800 –> 00:51:06,800
government can always release out the cooling measures

1443
00:51:06,800 –> 00:51:09,560
to resuscitate the market because we already have 13 rounds

1444
00:51:09,560 –> 00:51:10,600
being priced in all the way

1445
00:51:10,600 –> 00:51:13,800
since the Lehman Brothers’ season after 2009.

1446
00:51:13,800 –> 00:51:14,880
And you see this dip here,

1447
00:51:14,880 –> 00:51:17,520
basically this dip was being created

1448
00:51:17,520 –> 00:51:19,920
by that new cooling measure.

1449
00:51:19,920 –> 00:51:21,080
In fact one of the most drastic cooling measure,

1450
00:51:21,080 –> 00:51:24,080
which is a 2013 TDSR cooling measure,

1451
00:51:24,080 –> 00:51:27,200
that instantaneously affected everybody’s borrowing cost.

1452
00:51:27,200 –> 00:51:29,600
It took a while for everybody to get used

1453
00:51:29,600 –> 00:51:30,560
to the new measure.

1454
00:51:30,560 –> 00:51:32,000
Basically, after this season

1455
00:51:32,000 –> 00:51:34,160
everything started to go uphill.

1456
00:51:34,160 –> 00:51:36,880
We also have some brand new kind of behaviours

1457
00:51:36,880 –> 00:51:39,720
in terms of the departure of landed pricing

1458
00:51:39,720 –> 00:51:40,960
with condo pricing.

1459
00:51:40,960 –> 00:51:42,560
In fact, this is what we call a chasm gap.

1460
00:51:42,560 –> 00:51:44,000
And later we’ll dive into it.

1461
00:51:44,000 –> 00:51:45,280
As you can see right now what’s happening

1462
00:51:45,280 –> 00:51:47,360
in the HDB, condo and landed market,

1463
00:51:47,360 –> 00:51:49,800
is that they’re quite in sync in terms of movement.

1464
00:51:49,800 –> 00:51:51,840
We also realise that most Singaporeans right now,

1465
00:51:51,840 –> 00:51:53,040
they own their homes.

1466
00:51:53,040 –> 00:51:55,640
Now in fact globally this is already a fact

1467
00:51:55,640 –> 00:51:57,240
that is well-known for many years Singaporeans,

1468
00:51:57,240 –> 00:51:59,360
in terms of owning properties.

1469
00:51:59,360 –> 00:52:01,560
We are a nation wth close to about ~90%

1470
00:52:01,560 –> 00:52:02,640
home ownership rate.

1471
00:52:02,640 –> 00:52:04,400
We also see an uptrend

1472
00:52:04,400 –> 00:52:06,960
in terms of increase in proportion of own-stay buyers

1473
00:52:06,960 –> 00:52:07,880
over the years.

1474
00:52:07,880 –> 00:52:10,160
Holding power has become stronger with cooling measures.

1475
00:52:10,160 –> 00:52:11,920
This was a research done by Morgan Stanley

1476
00:52:11,920 –> 00:52:12,760
a couple of years back.

1477
00:52:12,760 –> 00:52:13,720
There’s only data up to about 2017,

1478
00:52:13,720 –> 00:52:16,200
but this trend has definitely continued

1479
00:52:16,200 –> 00:52:18,800
and in fact, holding period has strengthened.

1480
00:52:18,800 –> 00:52:20,480
That is a key result of this new thing

1481
00:52:20,480 –> 00:52:21,440
called the blackout period.

1482
00:52:21,440 –> 00:52:23,720
So this 3-year Seller’s Stamp Duty

1483
00:52:23,720 –> 00:52:25,560
for all residential properties in Singapore

1484
00:52:25,560 –> 00:52:26,840
has created this blackout period,

1485
00:52:26,840 –> 00:52:30,080
meaning that everybody now buy with a pre-concept

1486
00:52:30,080 –> 00:52:32,640
and a pre-ability and a pre-knowledge

1487
00:52:32,640 –> 00:52:35,000
of holding your property for the next 3 years.

1488
00:52:35,000 –> 00:52:35,920
Because if you are to sell property

1489
00:52:35,920 –> 00:52:36,920
within the next 3 years,

1490
00:52:36,920 –> 00:52:37,720
it’d mean you’d be taxed with

1491
00:52:37,720 –> 00:52:40,600
to 12%, 8% or 4% of Seller’s Stamp Duty

1492
00:52:40,600 –> 00:52:41,600
within the first 3 years.

1493
00:52:41,600 –> 00:52:44,600
So everybody is now buying into residential properties,

1494
00:52:44,600 –> 00:52:47,720
firstly, with the ability to pay 25% down payment.

1495
00:52:47,720 –> 00:52:50,000
Secondly, with the ability to pay another 4%

1496
00:52:50,000 –> 00:52:50,800
of Buyer’s Stamp Duty.

1497
00:52:50,800 –> 00:52:55,240
Thirdly, with the TDSR being scrutinised,

1498
00:52:55,240 –> 00:52:56,080
of course, by banks and MAS,

1499
00:52:56,080 –> 00:52:58,920
to make sure that you have financial prudency for loan.

1500
00:52:58,920 –> 00:53:01,440
And fourthly, is that you already buy in

1501
00:53:01,440 –> 00:53:02,800
with the thinking that for the next 3 years

1502
00:53:02,800 –> 00:53:04,520
I’m not going to sell my property,

1503
00:53:04,520 –> 00:53:06,400
because I would definitely hold for more than 3 years

1504
00:53:06,400 –> 00:53:07,480
before I think about selling.

1505
00:53:07,480 –> 00:53:10,040
So this blackout period has then created

1506
00:53:10,040 –> 00:53:12,560
a sharp dip in terms of property investors

1507
00:53:12,560 –> 00:53:14,280
selling their properties within the first 3 years.

1508
00:53:14,280 –> 00:53:16,400
And we also realise that in terms of net cash

1509
00:53:16,400 –> 00:53:19,120
versus that Singaporeans’ household

1510
00:53:19,120 –> 00:53:22,160
have very high holding power per household.

1511
00:53:22,160 –> 00:53:24,240
In fact, this has escalated over the past years as well.

1512
00:53:24,240 –> 00:53:26,600
Housing portfolios are also not overexposed to housing.

1513
00:53:26,600 –> 00:53:30,000
In fact, we are sort of in a very safe zoning

1514
00:53:30,000 –> 00:53:33,560
and average of about 58% basically overexposed to housing.

1515
00:53:33,560 –> 00:53:36,200
So this has then created new behaviours in the market,

1516
00:53:36,200 –> 00:53:39,080
because Singaporeans became the most active buyers

1517
00:53:39,080 –> 00:53:40,000
over the past years

1518
00:53:40,000 –> 00:53:41,000
with the introduction of cooling measures.

1519
00:53:41,000 –> 00:53:43,280
And as you can see, this is what we call

1520
00:53:43,280 –> 00:53:44,600
our Singapore’s MOAT.

1521
00:53:44,600 –> 00:53:47,160
Why is Singapore’s real estate market different

1522
00:53:47,160 –> 00:53:48,560
from the global real estate market,

1523
00:53:48,560 –> 00:53:50,080
is because we have a huge moat

1524
00:53:50,080 –> 00:53:52,880
that is protecting basically the demand

1525
00:53:52,880 –> 00:53:54,760
and supply kind of relationship.

1526
00:53:54,760 –> 00:53:58,360
It’s also creating constantly new groups of buyers

1527
00:53:58,360 –> 00:54:02,280
in the market from the BTO and resale HDB market.

1528
00:54:02,280 –> 00:54:05,360
A lot of families after having and enjoying gains

1529
00:54:05,360 –> 00:54:08,200
appreciation from the HDB properties, their BTO properties,

1530
00:54:08,200 –> 00:54:11,400
they have new aspirations to upgrade to the OCR market

1531
00:54:11,400 –> 00:54:12,760
in terms condo and apartments market.

1532
00:54:12,760 –> 00:54:16,840
And then after that, RCR, CCR or even into the landed market.

1533
00:54:16,840 –> 00:54:20,120
This is basically a bottom-up approach from within Singapore

1534
00:54:20,120 –> 00:54:23,280
and the gains from HDB allows Singaporeans to upgrade.

1535
00:54:23,280 –> 00:54:24,640
In fact, the trending of households

1536
00:54:24,640 –> 00:54:26,680
moving to private properties have already increased

1537
00:54:26,680 –> 00:54:29,160
over the years with the percentage of residents living

1538
00:54:29,160 –> 00:54:31,640
in the HDB dipping gradually over the years.

1539
00:54:31,640 –> 00:54:34,120
If you look at this, this is also a very interesting chart.

1540
00:54:34,120 –> 00:54:38,160
In 2022, only 4% of condo and apartment purchases

1541
00:54:38,160 –> 00:54:39,440
are by foreigners.

1542
00:54:39,440 –> 00:54:40,760
And that means

1543
00:54:40,760 –> 00:54:41,840
that if you look at the total amount of Singaporeans

1544
00:54:41,840 –> 00:54:44,360
and Singapore PRs, they formed the majority,

1545
00:54:44,360 –> 00:54:48,920
95% that buy into properties over the past years.

1546
00:54:48,920 –> 00:54:50,320
And that has been the main trending

1547
00:54:50,320 –> 00:54:53,360
over the past 3 years since 2020, 2021, 2022.

1548
00:54:53,360 –> 00:54:54,200
What does this tell us?

1549
00:54:54,200 –> 00:54:57,600
Is that Singaporeans ourself are the largest group of buyers

1550
00:54:57,600 –> 00:54:58,640
and we are the main people

1551
00:54:58,640 –> 00:55:00,520
that’s supporting the market locally.

1552
00:55:00,520 –> 00:55:03,960
This demand created within is a strong proponent

1553
00:55:03,960 –> 00:55:06,120
and a strong stability in the entire market.

1554
00:55:06,120 –> 00:55:09,480
Lessen new foreigners, buyers coupled with this fact

1555
00:55:09,480 –> 00:55:10,920
that existing foreigners are not selling

1556
00:55:10,920 –> 00:55:12,800
also created a new behaviour.

1557
00:55:12,800 –> 00:55:14,800
So let me just deep dive a little bit here,

1558
00:55:14,800 –> 00:55:16,880
is that why are existing foreigners not selling?

1559
00:55:16,880 –> 00:55:20,240
Now very simply, every foreigner that’s holding

1560
00:55:20,240 –> 00:55:21,080
onto their property,

1561
00:55:21,080 –> 00:55:22,480
or for example, a foreign buyer

1562
00:55:22,480 –> 00:55:25,000
that has already purchased in the Singapore property market

1563
00:55:25,000 –> 00:55:27,920
in the last couple of years or maybe in the past 10 years

1564
00:55:27,920 –> 00:55:29,240
or just last 3 to 5 years,

1565
00:55:29,240 –> 00:55:31,280
their motivation to sell is very low,

1566
00:55:31,280 –> 00:55:33,920
because the moment they sell, they cannot buy back.

1567
00:55:33,920 –> 00:55:34,760
Why is it that they cannot buy back?

1568
00:55:34,760 –> 00:55:36,200
Is because the moment they sell

1569
00:55:36,200 –> 00:55:39,960
they’ll be taxed with the latest round of ABSD,

1570
00:55:39,960 –> 00:55:42,280
which is a very high rate of 25%.

1571
00:55:42,280 –> 00:55:43,440
So basically what’s happening

1572
00:55:43,440 –> 00:55:45,760
is that if let’s say I’m a foreign investor,

1573
00:55:45,760 –> 00:55:46,880
I hold three residential properties,

1574
00:55:46,880 –> 00:55:48,280
the moment I sell one property,

1575
00:55:48,280 –> 00:55:50,600
I want to reinvest back into the residential market,

1576
00:55:50,600 –> 00:55:53,080
I’m demotivated to do that.

1577
00:55:53,080 –> 00:55:54,920
I’m demotivated to sell because the moment I sell

1578
00:55:54,920 –> 00:55:58,400
I’ll be taxed with a fresh latest rate of ABSD,

1579
00:55:58,400 –> 00:56:00,280
and that is at a very high rate right now.

1580
00:56:00,280 –> 00:56:03,360
So technically, what is happening is that foreign investors,

1581
00:56:03,360 –> 00:56:04,760
they’re holding onto their properties

1582
00:56:04,760 –> 00:56:05,720
and we have clients, of course,

1583
00:56:05,720 –> 00:56:09,280
with multiple properties in the CCR, RCR market

1584
00:56:09,280 –> 00:56:11,320
or even the OCR market, they’re not selling.

1585
00:56:11,320 –> 00:56:13,560
And even Singaporeans with multiple properties,

1586
00:56:13,560 –> 00:56:14,520
they’re also facing a demotivation

1587
00:56:14,520 –> 00:56:17,920
to exit from their current residential properties,

1588
00:56:17,920 –> 00:56:19,680
because the moment they sell they cannot buy back.

1589
00:56:19,680 –> 00:56:22,560
Now this has then created in a higher holding power

1590
00:56:22,560 –> 00:56:25,000
of condos and apartments has also reduced

1591
00:56:25,000 –> 00:56:27,120
the amount of resale supply in the market.

1592
00:56:27,120 –> 00:56:30,520
If we look at the separation in terms of the demographics

1593
00:56:30,520 –> 00:56:33,280
of condo units already owned by Singaporeans and foreigners,

1594
00:56:33,280 –> 00:56:37,320
this is the breakdown of the 340,000 condo apartment unit

1595
00:56:37,320 –> 00:56:38,480
in Singapore, in terms of relationship

1596
00:56:38,480 –> 00:56:40,680
of Singaporeans and foreigners and PR.

1597
00:56:40,680 –> 00:56:44,520
And if this group of investors are demotivated to sell,

1598
00:56:44,520 –> 00:56:46,360
what’s going to happen is that most of the properties

1599
00:56:46,360 –> 00:56:48,800
that will change hand will belong to this category,

1600
00:56:48,800 –> 00:56:51,520
and that then creates kind of reduction

1601
00:56:51,520 –> 00:56:52,600
in terms of resale supply as well.

1602
00:56:52,600 –> 00:56:55,000
Land was also not released quick enough.

1603
00:56:55,000 –> 00:56:56,200
Just have a look at this chart,

1604
00:56:56,200 –> 00:56:59,000
that was a plateau period over the past 2 years.

1605
00:56:59,000 –> 00:57:01,640
Perhaps Government Land Sales (GLS) was controlled quite tightly.

1606
00:57:01,640 –> 00:57:02,840
We have also seen in 2022

1607
00:57:02,840 –> 00:57:05,360
government started releasing more land for GLS

1608
00:57:05,360 –> 00:57:06,600
because the amount of demand

1609
00:57:06,600 –> 00:57:07,760
depend on pent up demand from developers

1610
00:57:07,760 –> 00:57:09,160
and buyers are picking up.

1611
00:57:09,160 –> 00:57:11,520
The market expects prices to appreciate.

1612
00:57:11,520 –> 00:57:13,760
What’s going to happen for the rest of 2022

1613
00:57:13,760 –> 00:57:15,880
is really as mentioned at the start of this seminar,

1614
00:57:15,880 –> 00:57:16,960
is that is going to be confusing,

1615
00:57:16,960 –> 00:57:20,040
but I hope that now you have a better understanding

1616
00:57:20,040 –> 00:57:22,640
of the external and internal factors.

1617
00:57:22,640 –> 00:57:23,960
You will then have a better understanding

1618
00:57:23,960 –> 00:57:26,320
on the stability and the status

1619
00:57:26,320 –> 00:57:27,840
that Singapore’s property market now have.

1620
00:57:27,840 –> 00:57:29,840
We want to dive into the next segment,

1621
00:57:29,840 –> 00:57:33,680
which is the opportunities for you by segmentation.

1622
00:57:33,680 –> 00:57:35,720
And these are the four segments

1623
00:57:35,720 –> 00:57:38,000
in terms of what you can potentially consider

1624
00:57:38,000 –> 00:57:40,640
provided that it suits your needs of your family,

1625
00:57:40,640 –> 00:57:42,320
if it’s your first property or if it’s a replacement home.

1626
00:57:42,320 –> 00:57:45,720
If it’s your second or more properties moving forward,

1627
00:57:45,720 –> 00:57:47,320
it really depends on the real estate goals

1628
00:57:47,320 –> 00:57:48,800
and of course, your investment quantum.

1629
00:57:48,800 –> 00:57:50,960
We want to then touch on the last portion,

1630
00:57:50,960 –> 00:57:52,280
which is to share you a little bit

1631
00:57:52,280 –> 00:57:53,120
about some of the case studies

1632
00:57:53,120 –> 00:57:55,480
that our clients have and hope that that can allow you

1633
00:57:55,480 –> 00:57:56,840
a little bit more insights as well.

1634
00:57:56,840 –> 00:58:00,080
Parking your capital into non-landed OCR

1635
00:58:00,080 –> 00:58:02,000
and also potentially the CCR market.

1636
00:58:02,000 –> 00:58:03,440
And why is the downside limited?

1637
00:58:03,440 –> 00:58:04,640
What is happening in the OCR market right now

1638
00:58:04,640 –> 00:58:07,280
is that there’s this disparity effect that’s forming.

1639
00:58:07,280 –> 00:58:10,880
Disparity effect is also a kind of research

1640
00:58:10,880 –> 00:58:14,600
into deciphering what has created a gap.

1641
00:58:14,600 –> 00:58:15,640
What do I mean by this?

1642
00:58:15,640 –> 00:58:18,480
For example, when you see a certain type property

1643
00:58:18,480 –> 00:58:21,440
move up in terms of its strength, its speed,

1644
00:58:21,440 –> 00:58:23,680
what might happen in the next 6 to 12 months

1645
00:58:23,680 –> 00:58:25,880
is that the next closest category

1646
00:58:25,880 –> 00:58:28,760
might also leverage on this movement upwards.

1647
00:58:28,760 –> 00:58:30,840
We call this the disparity gap.

1648
00:58:30,840 –> 00:58:33,400
So the moment that we start to detect a disparity gap,

1649
00:58:33,400 –> 00:58:35,280
that is a sign and signal

1650
00:58:35,280 –> 00:58:37,600
that there might be a next leg up of movement

1651
00:58:37,600 –> 00:58:40,240
for that substitute kind of product.

1652
00:58:40,240 –> 00:58:42,520
By substitute I don’t mean that that property

1653
00:58:42,520 –> 00:58:44,240
is so-called like inferior,

1654
00:58:44,240 –> 00:58:47,240
basically we’re talking about the next better option

1655
00:58:47,240 –> 00:58:48,440
for the property buyer.

1656
00:58:48,440 –> 00:58:50,440
What might be the new demand

1657
00:58:50,440 –> 00:58:53,200
that might point to that next category of property.

1658
00:58:53,200 –> 00:58:56,160
So for example, when we detected that in 2020

1659
00:58:56,160 –> 00:58:57,600
at the start of the COVID season

1660
00:58:57,600 –> 00:59:00,120
that inter-terraces are going to move upwards.

1661
00:59:00,120 –> 00:59:01,960
What happened in 2021 was that we detected

1662
00:59:01,960 –> 00:59:04,880
that cluster housing will be the next leg upwards

1663
00:59:04,880 –> 00:59:06,440
and then we then released a couple of videos

1664
00:59:06,440 –> 00:59:08,960
to share with our clients that this is the next category

1665
00:59:08,960 –> 00:59:11,320
to look at because this has already moved up,

1666
00:59:11,320 –> 00:59:12,360
this will then move up,

1667
00:59:12,360 –> 00:59:14,160
because some of the buyers will be priced out

1668
00:59:14,160 –> 00:59:16,360
of the inter-terrace pure landed market.

1669
00:59:16,360 –> 00:59:18,240
They’ll then have to look at cluster housing

1670
00:59:18,240 –> 00:59:20,040
as an alternative if they want to have space,

1671
00:59:20,040 –> 00:59:21,720
yet at the same time they want to have

1672
00:59:21,720 –> 00:59:22,840
that kind of landed living.

1673
00:59:22,840 –> 00:59:23,680
And at the same time,

1674
00:59:23,680 –> 00:59:26,280
families that want to have a little bit more of facilities

1675
00:59:26,280 –> 00:59:28,880
and basically they want to have pools and gyms

1676
00:59:28,880 –> 00:59:29,680
and stuff like that,

1677
00:59:29,680 –> 00:59:30,600
they’ll also look at bigger properties

1678
00:59:30,600 –> 00:59:33,280
like the penthouses as well as the 4-bedders.

1679
00:59:33,280 –> 00:59:36,480
That has been the onset of the disparity effect.

1680
00:59:36,480 –> 00:59:37,320
Looking at this,

1681
00:59:37,320 –> 00:59:39,320
what is happening basically in the OCR market

1682
00:59:39,320 –> 00:59:41,560
is that in terms of demand,

1683
00:59:41,560 –> 00:59:44,520
there’s a lot of pent up demand over the past seasons.

1684
00:59:44,520 –> 00:59:46,200
We can firstly look at the performance

1685
00:59:46,200 –> 00:59:48,160
of the new launches, the OCR market,

1686
00:59:48,160 –> 00:59:50,000
but secondly it’s because GLS

1687
00:59:50,000 –> 00:59:52,000
has been pretty limited over the past 2 years.

1688
00:59:52,000 –> 00:59:54,000
The housing stock has been controlled pretty well,

1689
00:59:54,000 –> 00:59:56,040
in the sense that when you look at this

1690
00:59:56,040 –> 00:59:57,240
in terms of price movement,

1691
00:59:57,240 –> 01:00:00,480
vis-à-vis the supply in the pipeline,

1692
01:00:00,480 –> 01:00:03,120
there is a kind of disjunct,

1693
01:00:03,120 –> 01:00:06,120
because the supply was not created in a very fast motion,

1694
01:00:06,120 –> 01:00:08,640
but yet demand is still pent up.

1695
01:00:08,640 –> 01:00:09,560
So what is happening?

1696
01:00:09,560 –> 01:00:10,480
Of course, in the CCR market is also

1697
01:00:10,480 –> 01:00:13,160
because that the pricing right now

1698
01:00:13,160 –> 01:00:14,960
has not hit back its past peak.

1699
01:00:14,960 –> 01:00:16,600
But take note that why are we talking about the OCR

1700
01:00:16,600 –> 01:00:19,880
and CCR market is that if you have the ability

1701
01:00:19,880 –> 01:00:20,720
to enter the CCR market,

1702
01:00:20,720 –> 01:00:23,840
because technically speaking every property in CCR market

1703
01:00:23,840 –> 01:00:24,880
is of a higher quantum,

1704
01:00:24,880 –> 01:00:26,160
because the sizes are bigger,

1705
01:00:26,160 –> 01:00:28,240
PSF is also at a larger volume

1706
01:00:28,240 –> 01:00:29,240
and thus the overall quantum play

1707
01:00:29,240 –> 01:00:31,560
needs a higher amount of investment.

1708
01:00:31,560 –> 01:00:34,400
But of course if you do not have that amount of quantum,

1709
01:00:34,400 –> 01:00:36,400
kind of budget reserve for the CCR market,

1710
01:00:36,400 –> 01:00:40,640
OCR market is a very safe play in the next 12 to 18 months.

1711
01:00:40,640 –> 01:00:43,400
Now looking at this in terms of upcoming residential supply

1712
01:00:43,400 –> 01:00:46,000
in Singapore, we also see a kind of disparity

1713
01:00:46,000 –> 01:00:48,880
between the new launch pricing and lagging resale pricing.

1714
01:00:48,880 –> 01:00:52,120
There’s this very huge gap that’s being created right now,

1715
01:00:52,120 –> 01:00:54,560
that does not mean that new launch market

1716
01:00:54,560 –> 01:00:57,560
will basically not see an upward movement.

1717
01:00:57,560 –> 01:00:59,120
What we’re trying to say is that in terms

1718
01:00:59,120 –> 01:01:03,040
of the new launch pricing, a benchmark might already have hit.

1719
01:01:03,040 –> 01:01:05,240
There will be of course chances for the new launch pricing

1720
01:01:05,240 –> 01:01:06,240
to continue in an upward momentum.

1721
01:01:06,240 –> 01:01:09,280
But we think that in terms of this gap,

1722
01:01:09,280 –> 01:01:10,720
what’s going to happen is that the resale pricing

1723
01:01:10,720 –> 01:01:11,880
is going to catch up.

1724
01:01:11,880 –> 01:01:13,560
Usually they move in conjunction,

1725
01:01:13,560 –> 01:01:14,680
new launch will move first,

1726
01:01:14,680 –> 01:01:16,080
resale will then start to catch up

1727
01:01:16,080 –> 01:01:17,400
and then new launch will be the next leg up.

1728
01:01:17,400 –> 01:01:20,680
So basically the next leg that we forecast

1729
01:01:20,680 –> 01:01:24,160
is going to be resale, and this is a value play,

1730
01:01:24,160 –> 01:01:25,160
a potential value play that you can look at

1731
01:01:25,160 –> 01:01:26,840
in terms of alternative.

1732
01:01:26,840 –> 01:01:28,920
New launch, new kind of PSF level

1733
01:01:28,920 –> 01:01:31,760
will be a benchmark and it will still be a new norm,

1734
01:01:31,760 –> 01:01:33,640
and that’s what everybody will have to get used to

1735
01:01:33,640 –> 01:01:35,680
in terms of its $2,000 PSF, $2,200 PSF

1736
01:01:35,680 –> 01:01:37,200
for OCR and RCR pricing.

1737
01:01:37,200 –> 01:01:40,760
Take note that new launch pricing always move

1738
01:01:40,760 –> 01:01:43,080
in terms of past trends over the past 10 to 15 years

1739
01:01:43,080 –> 01:01:44,880
is that there seem to be estimated

1740
01:01:44,880 –> 01:01:48,680
of about $400 PSF increment every 5 years.

1741
01:01:48,680 –> 01:01:51,200
Now the key rationale is because of this relationship

1742
01:01:51,200 –> 01:01:53,200
in terms of the amount of properties

1743
01:01:53,200 –> 01:01:54,800
that’s going to be completed in the market.

1744
01:01:54,800 –> 01:01:58,360
And whenever you see a huge chunk of this dark pink line,

1745
01:01:58,360 –> 01:02:00,960
it means that developers are going to hand over

1746
01:02:00,960 –> 01:02:02,600
a lot of completed projects to buyers

1747
01:02:02,600 –> 01:02:03,800
that have bought about 3 years back.

1748
01:02:03,800 –> 01:02:05,200
And what this means is that developers

1749
01:02:05,200 –> 01:02:08,520
are going to have a new kind of so-called depletion

1750
01:02:08,520 –> 01:02:09,640
in terms of the land bank

1751
01:02:09,640 –> 01:02:11,360
and they’re then going to need more land

1752
01:02:11,360 –> 01:02:13,160
to top up the land bank as well.

1753
01:02:13,160 –> 01:02:16,480
And that’s the key rationale that you see 2022, 2023

1754
01:02:16,480 –> 01:02:18,320
being the en bloc season right now.

1755
01:02:18,320 –> 01:02:20,120
Last but not least, landed market.

1756
01:02:20,120 –> 01:02:22,280
Now, landed market in terms of store value,

1757
01:02:22,280 –> 01:02:24,560
it is strong because of this chasm

1758
01:02:24,560 –> 01:02:26,680
that has been created over the past 11 years.

1759
01:02:26,680 –> 01:02:30,960
So the past 11 years we notice that the landed market

1760
01:02:30,960 –> 01:02:33,320
in terms of price index and the condo market

1761
01:02:33,320 –> 01:02:34,240
has not touched.

1762
01:02:34,240 –> 01:02:35,080
Now what does this mean?

1763
01:02:35,080 –> 01:02:38,000
This means that basically from this moment onwards,

1764
01:02:38,000 –> 01:02:39,640
because of the cooling measures

1765
01:02:39,640 –> 01:02:42,840
with the amount of dip on foreign investors money

1766
01:02:42,840 –> 01:02:44,760
in the Singapore real estate market,

1767
01:02:44,760 –> 01:02:47,000
Singaporeans themselves or Singaporeans ourselves

1768
01:02:47,000 –> 01:02:50,480
have looked at landed property as a harder asset

1769
01:02:50,480 –> 01:02:52,040
compared to non-landed.

1770
01:02:52,040 –> 01:02:54,360
Now this also not saying that non-landed residential

1771
01:02:54,360 –> 01:02:55,560
are an inferior product.

1772
01:02:55,560 –> 01:02:57,320
What is this saying is that landed market

1773
01:02:57,320 –> 01:02:59,520
forms a top tier as a harder asset,

1774
01:02:59,520 –> 01:03:00,560
as a higher level of store of value

1775
01:03:00,560 –> 01:03:02,240
with a higher, stronger holding power.

1776
01:03:02,240 –> 01:03:04,840
Next tier will be the condos market.

1777
01:03:04,840 –> 01:03:07,160
And now this is actually a very healthy signal

1778
01:03:07,160 –> 01:03:10,280
because from this, we know that based in Singapore,

1779
01:03:10,280 –> 01:03:12,320
just based on local demand,

1780
01:03:12,320 –> 01:03:15,120
this is basically the culture and preferences

1781
01:03:15,120 –> 01:03:17,040
of property buyers and investors,

1782
01:03:17,040 –> 01:03:18,040
compared to the past

1783
01:03:18,040 –> 01:03:19,840
where there’s a huge amount of foreign investors,

1784
01:03:19,840 –> 01:03:22,520
you see that the residential for non-landed

1785
01:03:22,520 –> 01:03:24,480
is actually at a higher tier than the landed market.

1786
01:03:24,480 –> 01:03:26,480
We want to talk about this final portion,

1787
01:03:26,480 –> 01:03:28,360
which is our PLB signature strategy.

1788
01:03:28,360 –> 01:03:30,800
So there are a totality of each strategies

1789
01:03:30,800 –> 01:03:33,200
that we usually adopt for our property investors and buyers.

1790
01:03:33,200 –> 01:03:34,920
Today we’re going to share a view on basically

1791
01:03:34,920 –> 01:03:36,960
just 1 of the 8,

1792
01:03:36,960 –> 01:03:39,040
and we’re going to share with the homeowner’s journey strategy.

1793
01:03:39,040 –> 01:03:41,680
And what is the homeowner’s journey strategy.

1794
01:03:41,680 –> 01:03:43,720
Basically this will then help you to decipher

1795
01:03:43,720 –> 01:03:45,160
whether should you buy, hold or sell,

1796
01:03:45,160 –> 01:03:46,960
because this being the typical route,

1797
01:03:46,960 –> 01:03:49,600
as in a passive route in terms of utilising your capital

1798
01:03:49,600 –> 01:03:51,440
and your gains that you have already made

1799
01:03:51,440 –> 01:03:52,640
in your first property,

1800
01:03:52,640 –> 01:03:54,480
we think that it is basically

1801
01:03:54,480 –> 01:03:56,600
a better kind of protection strategy

1802
01:03:56,600 –> 01:03:58,040
if you were to reinvest a capital

1803
01:03:58,040 –> 01:03:59,280
from let’s say, if you are holding

1804
01:03:59,280 –> 01:04:02,320
onto a current HDB apartment into a private property

1805
01:04:02,320 –> 01:04:04,040
for all the host of reasons that we have mentioned

1806
01:04:04,040 –> 01:04:05,760
at the start of this video till now.

1807
01:04:05,760 –> 01:04:07,960
And this protection model is basically

1808
01:04:07,960 –> 01:04:11,040
to reinvest your capital

1809
01:04:11,040 –> 01:04:12,720
that you have already parked into a HDB property

1810
01:04:12,720 –> 01:04:14,960
and the gains that you have made over the past years.

1811
01:04:14,960 –> 01:04:17,600
And take note that if you are holding

1812
01:04:17,600 –> 01:04:19,400
onto a BTO property, for example,

1813
01:04:19,400 –> 01:04:21,480
that you have bought at the on start of your marriage,

1814
01:04:21,480 –> 01:04:22,760
technically speaking,

1815
01:04:22,760 –> 01:04:24,240
I believe you have already been holding onto a property

1816
01:04:24,240 –> 01:04:25,400
for at least 9 years,

1817
01:04:25,400 –> 01:04:26,680
because you’ll need about 4 to 5 years

1818
01:04:26,680 –> 01:04:29,240
of construction period and 5 years for MOP period,

1819
01:04:29,240 –> 01:04:30,240
and perhaps you have already invested

1820
01:04:30,240 –> 01:04:33,800
about 9 to 10 years of your investment horizon

1821
01:04:33,800 –> 01:04:35,720
into the BTO property.

1822
01:04:35,720 –> 01:04:39,520
Why does it make sense to reinvest into a private property?

1823
01:04:39,520 –> 01:04:43,600
Is because of this fact that if you were to reinvest

1824
01:04:43,600 –> 01:04:44,440
that into private property

1825
01:04:44,440 –> 01:04:47,360
and you were to hold until age 65,

1826
01:04:47,360 –> 01:04:49,200
just for one property,

1827
01:04:49,200 –> 01:04:51,480
this higher quantum in terms of value

1828
01:04:51,480 –> 01:04:53,760
is going to eat you in your retirement years.

1829
01:04:53,760 –> 01:04:56,040
Assuming if your property does not appreciate,

1830
01:04:56,040 –> 01:04:58,200
just by buying a $1.5 mil property

1831
01:04:58,200 –> 01:05:01,360
and provided you have done your financial prudence check,

1832
01:05:01,360 –> 01:05:02,880
you have done your risk assessment,

1833
01:05:02,880 –> 01:05:04,120
you have done your TDSR,

1834
01:05:04,120 –> 01:05:05,640
and your family’s comfortable to hold this property

1835
01:05:05,640 –> 01:05:08,120
and you’re confident, of course of your job nature,

1836
01:05:08,120 –> 01:05:09,000
and things like that,

1837
01:05:09,000 –> 01:05:10,000
and just by holding onto this properly,

1838
01:05:10,000 –> 01:05:13,440
and this property has not even appreciated by $1 mil

1839
01:05:13,440 –> 01:05:15,520
for the next 25 to 30 years,

1840
01:05:15,520 –> 01:05:18,680
this is still going to help you with your retirement years.

1841
01:05:18,680 –> 01:05:19,520
Because what is going to happen

1842
01:05:19,520 –> 01:05:21,560
is that you can still buy back the HDB

1843
01:05:21,560 –> 01:05:24,320
that you were living in in the past.

1844
01:05:24,320 –> 01:05:27,000
So sometimes when we share our clients this concept

1845
01:05:27,000 –> 01:05:29,160
is that, for example, if you’re staying in Ang Mo Kio,

1846
01:05:29,160 –> 01:05:31,920
you really love this area, you love the HDB cluster there,

1847
01:05:31,920 –> 01:05:35,360
you can still buy back the same cluster of HDB

1848
01:05:35,360 –> 01:05:37,480
in your retirement years once your kids are grown up,

1849
01:05:37,480 –> 01:05:38,440
they’ve moved out of the private properties

1850
01:05:38,440 –> 01:05:39,800
and things like that.

1851
01:05:39,800 –> 01:05:43,760
And this is then going to help you with your retirement amount

1852
01:05:43,760 –> 01:05:46,200
because you have false-saved into your private property

1853
01:05:46,200 –> 01:05:47,520
over the next 25 to 30 years.

1854
01:05:47,520 –> 01:05:51,840
And this is kind of like a false investment kind of approach

1855
01:05:51,840 –> 01:05:54,080
by ensuring that you have accountability and discipline

1856
01:05:54,080 –> 01:05:55,840
to invest in your property.

1857
01:05:55,840 –> 01:05:57,560
Because take note that every money instalment

1858
01:05:57,560 –> 01:05:59,200
that you put in there is a component of interest

1859
01:05:59,200 –> 01:06:00,440
and capital.

1860
01:06:00,440 –> 01:06:02,160
We call this the P&I approach,

1861
01:06:02,160 –> 01:06:03,800
meaning that every amount that you put in,

1862
01:06:03,800 –> 01:06:05,000
there’s a principle amount

1863
01:06:05,000 –> 01:06:06,760
that gets locked into your property

1864
01:06:06,760 –> 01:06:08,560
and this is going to be released to you

1865
01:06:08,560 –> 01:06:09,640
when you sell the property in future.

1866
01:06:09,640 –> 01:06:12,120
And the interest is basically to pay the bank

1867
01:06:12,120 –> 01:06:14,320
because of the fact that you leveraged 75% from the bank.

1868
01:06:14,320 –> 01:06:15,360
This false-saving approach

1869
01:06:15,360 –> 01:06:19,280
has not even calculated the potential inflation,

1870
01:06:19,280 –> 01:06:20,240
of property price appreciation,

1871
01:06:20,240 –> 01:06:23,240
and if this property were to appreciate to $2 mil,

1872
01:06:23,240 –> 01:06:25,240
what’s going to happen is that you’re going to have

1873
01:06:25,240 –> 01:06:26,920
a higher amount of retirement

1874
01:06:26,920 –> 01:06:28,600
over the next 20 to 30 years

1875
01:06:28,600 –> 01:06:29,640
compared to the first approach

1876
01:06:29,640 –> 01:06:33,280
whereby you have to depend on your HDB property.

1877
01:06:33,280 –> 01:06:35,720
And take note that the largest competition

1878
01:06:35,720 –> 01:06:38,760
for HDB apartments are HDBs themselves,

1879
01:06:38,760 –> 01:06:40,680
because year-on-year the amount of BTOs

1880
01:06:40,680 –> 01:06:42,520
that are being released to the market

1881
01:06:42,520 –> 01:06:45,880
is of a higher volume than what is being released

1882
01:06:45,880 –> 01:06:48,440
in the private property market on a year-to-year basis.

1883
01:06:48,440 –> 01:06:50,480
So take note that your HDB apartment

1884
01:06:50,480 –> 01:06:53,200
is always facing stiffer and stiffer competition

1885
01:06:53,200 –> 01:06:57,360
from new HDB MOP-ed clusters that just hit 5 years

1886
01:06:57,360 –> 01:07:00,560
and from newer HDBs and BTOs that are being built

1887
01:07:00,560 –> 01:07:01,960
on newer and newer towns.

1888
01:07:01,960 –> 01:07:04,560
This statement is basically that you are always facing

1889
01:07:04,560 –> 01:07:08,280
newer competition into the entire 1.1 mil HDB

1890
01:07:08,280 –> 01:07:11,400
in the entire market compared to buying into something

1891
01:07:11,400 –> 01:07:13,000
that has only about ~300K

1892
01:07:13,000 –> 01:07:15,840
in terms of condo and apartments quantity

1893
01:07:15,840 –> 01:07:18,560
or 73K of landed in Singapore.

1894
01:07:18,560 –> 01:07:21,120
So next is that usually the BTO route

1895
01:07:21,120 –> 01:07:23,240
also will enter into a state of plateau,

1896
01:07:23,240 –> 01:07:25,240
because it will usually hit competition

1897
01:07:25,240 –> 01:07:27,080
from newer MOP-ed BTOs.

1898
01:07:27,080 –> 01:07:28,520
And of course, just a quick example

1899
01:07:28,520 –> 01:07:31,600
is that this HDB performance of the Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS)

1900
01:07:31,600 –> 01:07:33,800
at Clementi, a very beautiful project.

1901
01:07:33,800 –> 01:07:35,720
Over the first course of 9 years,

1902
01:07:35,720 –> 01:07:37,800
it has hit a very attractive pricing

1903
01:07:37,800 –> 01:07:39,840
for existing HDB owners to exit.

1904
01:07:39,840 –> 01:07:42,760
Over the the past 2 years, since 2020 to 2022,

1905
01:07:42,760 –> 01:07:45,800
the amount of appreciation sort of has appreciated,

1906
01:07:45,800 –> 01:07:49,560
but it’s not as fast as the initial appreciation.

1907
01:07:49,560 –> 01:07:53,440
Take for example if one of the HDB sellers had exited

1908
01:07:53,440 –> 01:07:56,320
in the year 2019 to 2020 and reinvested their gains

1909
01:07:56,320 –> 01:07:58,280
into Stirling Residences,

1910
01:07:58,280 –> 01:07:59,960
This was the enterprise in year 2019.

1911
01:07:59,960 –> 01:08:01,920
Over the last 3 to 4 years,

1912
01:08:01,920 –> 01:08:04,000
what has technically happened is that Stirling Residences

1913
01:08:04,000 –> 01:08:06,400
has already made a gain of close to about $400K

1914
01:08:06,400 –> 01:08:08,760
in terms of quantum appreciation.

1915
01:08:08,760 –> 01:08:11,720
Of course, it’s not a PSF appreciation that’s about $400.

1916
01:08:11,720 –> 01:08:13,880
So if this family were to reinvest,

1917
01:08:13,880 –> 01:08:16,040
take their gains from Trevillis

1918
01:08:16,040 –> 01:08:17,840
and reinvest into a 3-bedder

1919
01:08:17,840 –> 01:08:18,760
right here in Stirling Residences,

1920
01:08:18,760 –> 01:08:20,880
the amount of gain will be much more

1921
01:08:20,880 –> 01:08:23,080
than if they were to have stayed put,

1922
01:08:23,080 –> 01:08:24,760
because this gain right here over the past few years

1923
01:08:24,760 –> 01:08:26,040
was at about ~$30K.

1924
01:08:26,040 –> 01:08:27,520
But here it’s about $400K

1925
01:08:27,520 –> 01:08:29,280
in terms of total quantum appreciation.

1926
01:08:29,280 –> 01:08:31,680
Now next, of course we have the expansion model

1927
01:08:31,680 –> 01:08:32,680
in the two properties.

1928
01:08:32,680 –> 01:08:34,880
This is of course having and settling one resale property,

1929
01:08:34,880 –> 01:08:37,000
of course, this is investing

1930
01:08:37,000 –> 01:08:38,480
into a rental property, for example.

1931
01:08:38,480 –> 01:08:41,000
Basically just to share some of our client’s journeys

1932
01:08:41,000 –> 01:08:43,320
with PLB before we end today’s seminar,

1933
01:08:43,320 –> 01:08:45,120
I know that I’m a bit overrun ready.

1934
01:08:45,120 –> 01:08:47,960
So basically the first case study was a client

1935
01:08:47,960 –> 01:08:50,320
that was contemplating whether they should

1936
01:08:50,320 –> 01:08:53,840
unlock their paper profits from the Pinnacle@Duxton BTO.

1937
01:08:53,840 –> 01:08:56,520
They really want to reinvest their capital gains

1938
01:08:56,520 –> 01:08:58,680
into a property with a higher capital appreciation.

1939
01:08:58,680 –> 01:09:00,840
So what our team did was that they planned

1940
01:09:00,840 –> 01:09:03,480
for the family’s timeline and transition into the next home

1941
01:09:03,480 –> 01:09:05,760
and we started to kickstart the sustainability,

1942
01:09:05,760 –> 01:09:07,160
and affordability test,

1943
01:09:07,160 –> 01:09:09,680
something that we do for every client that onboards with us.

1944
01:09:09,680 –> 01:09:12,760
Basically, this journey has also gone through

1945
01:09:12,760 –> 01:09:14,720
the MOAT analysis route to decipher

1946
01:09:14,720 –> 01:09:16,240
what should be the right kind of investment

1947
01:09:16,240 –> 01:09:18,200
that’s very suitable for this family’s needs

1948
01:09:18,200 –> 01:09:19,360
and investment needs as well.

1949
01:09:19,360 –> 01:09:22,240
We then decided and basically journeyed them

1950
01:09:22,240 –> 01:09:23,240
and streamlined some of the choices

1951
01:09:23,240 –> 01:09:25,800
and eventually they selected through the MOAT analysis

1952
01:09:25,800 –> 01:09:28,880
and some of the couple of choices into the 3-bedder

1953
01:09:28,880 –> 01:09:31,920
at Stirling Residences in the last transaction right here.

1954
01:09:31,920 –> 01:09:33,720
Of course our clients have not sold their properties yet,

1955
01:09:33,720 –> 01:09:35,640
but on paper in terms of gain,

1956
01:09:35,640 –> 01:09:36,960
if they would exit from property

1957
01:09:36,960 –> 01:09:39,760
or to release it through some refinancing option

1958
01:09:39,760 –> 01:09:40,920
or equitable options,

1959
01:09:40,920 –> 01:09:41,960
they have already made a potential gain

1960
01:09:41,960 –> 01:09:44,200
of $400 PSF to $500 PSF

1961
01:09:44,200 –> 01:09:46,840
This is our client that we just shared the case study on.

1962
01:09:46,840 –> 01:09:48,920
Second case study basically as all of our clients

1963
01:09:48,920 –> 01:09:51,760
that were thinking about whether should they cut their losses

1964
01:09:51,760 –> 01:09:53,000
for one of the previous property

1965
01:09:53,000 –> 01:09:54,520
that they had bought into,

1966
01:09:54,520 –> 01:09:56,120
this was property in Tanah Merah.

1967
01:09:56,120 –> 01:09:57,840
Of course that was the season

1968
01:09:57,840 –> 01:10:00,240
whereby there was a lot of cooling measures implementation,

1969
01:10:00,240 –> 01:10:01,920
TDSR implementation.

1970
01:10:01,920 –> 01:10:03,080
And what has technically happened

1971
01:10:03,080 –> 01:10:05,240
was that it has created

1972
01:10:05,240 –> 01:10:07,440
in quite a far bit, unprofitable transaction

1973
01:10:07,440 –> 01:10:08,520
within the property itself.

1974
01:10:08,520 –> 01:10:12,360
So we’re not saying that this project is not investible.

1975
01:10:12,360 –> 01:10:13,520
What we’re saying is that every project been

1976
01:10:13,520 –> 01:10:15,000
through different season,

1977
01:10:15,000 –> 01:10:17,680
and this was just a season that has went through that route

1978
01:10:17,680 –> 01:10:20,320
of a lot of cooling measures coming into play.

1979
01:10:20,320 –> 01:10:22,760
It needs time for this project to recover

1980
01:10:22,760 –> 01:10:24,200
Of course moving into the next 5 years.

1981
01:10:24,200 –> 01:10:27,400
However, because of different needs that this family have,

1982
01:10:27,400 –> 01:10:29,840
they want to reinvest into a freehold property

1983
01:10:29,840 –> 01:10:33,200
and they’re thinking whether should they hold on

1984
01:10:33,200 –> 01:10:35,600
and continue or should they cut losses.

1985
01:10:35,600 –> 01:10:38,160
Now one of the key reasons is because within this property

1986
01:10:38,160 –> 01:10:39,320
there were two owners right there

1987
01:10:39,320 –> 01:10:43,400
that basically has injured so-called the bank valuation

1988
01:10:43,400 –> 01:10:44,640
of the project by selling at a loss.

1989
01:10:44,640 –> 01:10:47,800
So it needs a longer time period for it to recover.

1990
01:10:47,800 –> 01:10:48,720
Basically, what we have done

1991
01:10:48,720 –> 01:10:49,680
is that after the consult session,

1992
01:10:49,680 –> 01:10:51,920
we advise our client basically

1993
01:10:51,920 –> 01:10:55,200
to just hold on to the property a slight longer

1994
01:10:55,200 –> 01:10:57,280
just to let the valuation recover a little bit more

1995
01:10:57,280 –> 01:10:59,600
and then to exit from the property.

1996
01:10:59,600 –> 01:11:00,920
So once valuations go back to normal,

1997
01:11:00,920 –> 01:11:03,080
we relaunch the marketing about 1 year later

1998
01:11:03,080 –> 01:11:05,480
and help them to reinvest into an area

1999
01:11:05,480 –> 01:11:06,640
with better growth potential.

2000
01:11:06,640 –> 01:11:07,960
So these are just some of the analysis

2001
01:11:07,960 –> 01:11:08,840
that we’ve done for our clients.

2002
01:11:08,840 –> 01:11:10,440
Of course, with the MOAT analysis

2003
01:11:10,440 –> 01:11:12,000
we have helped them to reinvest back

2004
01:11:12,000 –> 01:11:13,920
into this resale freehold properties

2005
01:11:13,920 –> 01:11:16,040
at Parbury, that’s of course at the Bayshore area

2006
01:11:16,040 –> 01:11:17,840
Last but not least, the third case study

2007
01:11:17,840 –> 01:11:19,640
was basically a client that was contemplating

2008
01:11:19,640 –> 01:11:21,200
about buying two properties,

2009
01:11:21,200 –> 01:11:23,720
and of course, they already have a HDB property

2010
01:11:23,720 –> 01:11:25,560
that’s doing very well in terms of rental income,

2011
01:11:25,560 –> 01:11:28,240
but they were a little bit skeptical

2012
01:11:28,240 –> 01:11:30,320
because they were being advised externally

2013
01:11:30,320 –> 01:11:33,920
on to buying and pushing into new launches,

2014
01:11:33,920 –> 01:11:36,040
though they love to buy into a new product,

2015
01:11:36,040 –> 01:11:37,360
but they were a little bit skeptical

2016
01:11:37,360 –> 01:11:39,480
about whether is a new launch suitable for them.

2017
01:11:39,480 –> 01:11:41,600
But the advice that they’re getting on the ground

2018
01:11:41,600 –> 01:11:43,120
is just that new launches are always better,

2019
01:11:43,120 –> 01:11:46,200
resale is not good and thus they were a little bit worried

2020
01:11:46,200 –> 01:11:47,480
about this kind of opinion.

2021
01:11:47,480 –> 01:11:50,360
So they decided to seek our help through our consult team.

2022
01:11:50,360 –> 01:11:51,480
And basically what we do right here at PLB

2023
01:11:51,480 –> 01:11:53,640
is that we have a buyer consult session,

2024
01:11:53,640 –> 01:11:55,000
and later we’ll dive more into that.

2025
01:11:55,000 –> 01:11:58,720
But we do a lot of checks into basically the transition

2026
01:11:58,720 –> 01:12:01,640
in terms of timeline, in terms of visibility

2027
01:12:01,640 –> 01:12:03,560
as well as financial consultation

2028
01:12:03,560 –> 01:12:05,280
to make sure that they are able to sustain

2029
01:12:05,280 –> 01:12:07,400
the investment moving forward.

2030
01:12:07,400 –> 01:12:10,040
And most importantly is that to decipher

2031
01:12:10,040 –> 01:12:11,400
whether is it most suitable for them

2032
01:12:11,400 –> 01:12:12,560
to go into a new kind of product

2033
01:12:12,560 –> 01:12:14,600
or to go to a resale product.

2034
01:12:14,600 –> 01:12:17,280
So eventually after doing tons of comparison,

2035
01:12:17,280 –> 01:12:19,400
of course a lot of different in terms of comparison

2036
01:12:19,400 –> 01:12:20,200
between resale and new launches,

2037
01:12:20,200 –> 01:12:23,480
and of course in PLB, we have no objections

2038
01:12:23,480 –> 01:12:26,240
whether is it new launch or is it resale kind of property.

2039
01:12:26,240 –> 01:12:27,440
Most importantly is that we want to look

2040
01:12:27,440 –> 01:12:30,560
into the 10 characteristics that we always talk about

2041
01:12:30,560 –> 01:12:31,480
within the moat analysis

2042
01:12:31,480 –> 01:12:34,440
to see whether what type of new launch

2043
01:12:34,440 –> 01:12:36,680
and what type of resale are most suitable

2044
01:12:36,680 –> 01:12:39,040
for a particular family’s journey

2045
01:12:39,040 –> 01:12:40,720
or for a particular property investor.

2046
01:12:40,720 –> 01:12:42,000
So it can be a new launch investment,

2047
01:12:42,000 –> 01:12:43,360
it can also be a resale investment

2048
01:12:43,360 –> 01:12:44,880
or it can be a landed property,

2049
01:12:44,880 –> 01:12:46,000
but most importantly is to hunt

2050
01:12:46,000 –> 01:12:49,480
for the right type of property to invest into

2051
01:12:49,480 –> 01:12:51,600
and not really whether it’s a new launch

2052
01:12:51,600 –> 01:12:53,200
or a kind of resale property.

2053
01:12:53,200 –> 01:12:56,120
So in the end we’ll help them reinvest after deciding,

2054
01:12:56,120 –> 01:12:58,640
they’re decided to go into a new kind of product.

2055
01:12:58,640 –> 01:12:59,600
Of course they have seen gains

2056
01:12:59,600 –> 01:13:01,640
over the past 2 to 3 years.

2057
01:13:01,640 –> 01:13:02,880
Once again, before we end,

2058
01:13:02,880 –> 01:13:07,000
our methodology is really about entering with certainty

2059
01:13:07,000 –> 01:13:07,920
after going through

2060
01:13:07,920 –> 01:13:10,360
the four types of investment methodology.

2061
01:13:10,360 –> 01:13:11,480
Basically our trifecta insights,

2062
01:13:11,480 –> 01:13:13,000
real estate MOAT analysis,

2063
01:13:13,000 –> 01:13:14,040
micro segment targeting strategy

2064
01:13:14,040 –> 01:13:15,280
as well as disparity effect,

2065
01:13:15,280 –> 01:13:17,080
and most importantly we believe

2066
01:13:17,080 –> 01:13:19,040
to exit at the fullest potential

2067
01:13:19,040 –> 01:13:21,080
and not to market the property hastily.

2068
01:13:21,080 –> 01:13:22,600
So MOAT analysis is something

2069
01:13:22,600 –> 01:13:24,080
that our clients all go through

2070
01:13:24,080 –> 01:13:25,720
through a sit down session together with us.

2071
01:13:25,720 –> 01:13:28,160
We use this to a large extent to score properties.

2072
01:13:28,160 –> 01:13:29,400
Of course family has preferences.

2073
01:13:29,400 –> 01:13:32,360
We also want to make sure that the scoring caters

2074
01:13:32,360 –> 01:13:33,760
to the family’s needs as well.

2075
01:13:33,760 –> 01:13:34,760
And of course, at the start this video

2076
01:13:34,760 –> 01:13:35,600
I promised to share with you

2077
01:13:35,600 –> 01:13:36,440
what is the golden goose concept.

2078
01:13:36,440 –> 01:13:39,200
And the golden goose concept is that real real estate

2079
01:13:39,200 –> 01:13:44,200
basically allows its owner to enjoy the equity appreciation

2080
01:13:44,200 –> 01:13:46,120
and the value without killing the golden goose.

2081
01:13:46,120 –> 01:13:48,480
And of course for some of our audience right now,

2082
01:13:48,480 –> 01:13:50,920
if you’re contemplating, of course I’ve been struggling

2083
01:13:50,920 –> 01:13:53,440
with the dilemma of whether should you hold on to your HDB

2084
01:13:53,440 –> 01:13:54,440
or what should be the right strategy,

2085
01:13:54,440 –> 01:13:55,800
this is of course something that we go through

2086
01:13:55,800 –> 01:13:57,680
with our clients on a consult session.

2087
01:13:57,680 –> 01:13:58,520
There are also strategies

2088
01:13:58,520 –> 01:14:01,160
if you really, really wanna hold on to your HDB

2089
01:14:01,160 –> 01:14:03,080
and to reinvest into a second property.

2090
01:14:03,080 –> 01:14:05,440
And these are, of course, some things and techniques

2091
01:14:05,440 –> 01:14:08,240
that can be deployed on the ground through proper planning.

2092
01:14:08,240 –> 01:14:10,320
This is just an example of the amount of research

2093
01:14:10,320 –> 01:14:12,360
that we usually do for our clients

2094
01:14:12,360 –> 01:14:14,360
where we are helping them to deep dive

2095
01:14:14,360 –> 01:14:16,760
into what project to invest in through the MOAT analysis.

2096
01:14:16,760 –> 01:14:18,760
And of course, for our landed strategy,

2097
01:14:18,760 –> 01:14:20,880
this is a core concept that we utilise right here.

2098
01:14:20,880 –> 01:14:24,200
Our PLB consult session comprise of two sessions.

2099
01:14:24,200 –> 01:14:26,720
This is typically what happens during a consult session

2100
01:14:26,720 –> 01:14:28,280
in consult session number one

2101
01:14:28,280 –> 01:14:29,880
and consult session number two.

2102
01:14:29,880 –> 01:14:32,640
They usually happen for a 1.5 hour to 2 hour process.

2103
01:14:32,640 –> 01:14:34,440
And at the end of both sessions,

2104
01:14:34,440 –> 01:14:36,640
what’s going to happen is that our clients

2105
01:14:36,640 –> 01:14:38,680
usually will walk back with a full deck

2106
01:14:38,680 –> 01:14:39,800
of the analysis being discussed.

2107
01:14:39,800 –> 01:14:42,200
There’s also a full financial portfolio plan

2108
01:14:42,200 –> 01:14:43,240
for a property journey.

2109
01:14:43,240 –> 01:14:46,000
You will have access to our PLB Consultation Team

2110
01:14:46,000 –> 01:14:48,200
for ad-hoc advice for a period of 90 days

2111
01:14:48,200 –> 01:14:50,080
from the start of consult session number one.

2112
01:14:50,080 –> 01:14:52,720
What we usually do is that we will have to collect

2113
01:14:52,720 –> 01:14:54,960
a $3,000 consultation deposit

2114
01:14:54,960 –> 01:14:57,600
and that is refundable once you have purchased your property

2115
01:14:57,600 –> 01:14:59,880
with our PLB team within the next 24 months.

2116
01:14:59,880 –> 01:15:00,880
And the key rationale is because

2117
01:15:00,880 –> 01:15:04,120
there’s going to be a lot of in-depth research work

2118
01:15:04,120 –> 01:15:06,520
that’s going to be customised for you and your journey.

2119
01:15:06,520 –> 01:15:09,520
In the event if you decide to do a DIY approach

2120
01:15:09,520 –> 01:15:11,320
to whether you want to invest in a condominium

2121
01:15:11,320 –> 01:15:14,200
or a landed or a brand new property from the developers,

2122
01:15:14,200 –> 01:15:16,240
basically your investment is basically $3K

2123
01:15:16,240 –> 01:15:18,640
for the preparation of your journey

2124
01:15:18,640 –> 01:15:21,080
in terms of the analysis that’s customised

2125
01:15:21,080 –> 01:15:23,440
according to your financial portfolio.

2126
01:15:23,440 –> 01:15:25,080
If in the event if you decide

2127
01:15:25,080 –> 01:15:27,440
to head on, to proceed for the full consult session,

2128
01:15:27,440 –> 01:15:29,440
there will be in-depth financial analysis

2129
01:15:29,440 –> 01:15:30,280
that will be done for you.

2130
01:15:30,280 –> 01:15:32,320
So we do need some of the numbers in terms of your income,

2131
01:15:32,320 –> 01:15:34,920
in terms of your Notice of Award (NoA), as well as your CPF,

2132
01:15:34,920 –> 01:15:36,120
utilisation for current properties

2133
01:15:36,120 –> 01:15:37,240
and things like that.

2134
01:15:37,240 –> 01:15:41,280
So I’ve come to the end of Property Summit 2022

2135
01:15:41,280 –> 01:15:42,400
in conjunction with 8VI.

2136
01:15:42,400 –> 01:15:44,880
Once again, I thank you for staying through with us

2137
01:15:44,880 –> 01:15:46,360
all the way for the entire session.

2138
01:15:46,360 –> 01:15:48,120
Hope that you enjoyed this webinar,

2139
01:15:48,120 –> 01:15:50,200
and we’ll see you on the next Nuggets On The Go episode.

2140
01:15:50,200 –> 01:15:51,600
Alright, cheers.