HDB’s 4th Quarter 2025 public housing data points to a clear shift in market dynamics. After several years of strong price growth, resale prices have stabilised, transaction volumes have fallen noticeably, and rental activity, while still elevated, is showing signs of moderation. Taken together, the figures suggest that the public housing market is moving away from momentum-driven conditions and into a phase where affordability, value, and supply visibility play a larger role in shaping behaviour.
Resale Prices Flat for the First Time Since 2020
The HDB Resale Price Index in 4Q 2025 came in at 203.6, essentially unchanged from the previous quarter. This marks the first time since early 2020 that resale prices did not rise quarter on quarter. The flat outcome follows four consecutive quarters of slowing price growth throughout 2025, where increases moderated steadily from the start of the year before reaching a standstill in the final quarter.
On an annual basis, resale prices rose by 2.9% in 2025, a sharp slowdown from the 9.7% growth recorded in 2024. This represents the slowest annual increase in resale prices since 2019, reinforcing the view that the market has entered a consolidation phase rather than continuing its earlier upward momentum.
Rather than pointing to a broad-based decline, the stabilisation in prices reflects a growing alignment between what buyers are willing to pay and what sellers are prepared to accept. With affordability constraints and alternative housing options becoming more visible, buyers appear less inclined to stretch prices further, especially for homes that are already perceived as fully valued.
Transaction Volumes Fall Sharply in 4Q 2025
Resale activity declined significantly in the final quarter of the year. A total of 5,256 resale flats were transacted in 4Q 2025, representing a 27.2% drop from the preceding quarter and an 18.2% decline compared to the same period a year earlier.
For the full year, resale transaction volume fell by 9.7%, from 28,986 cases in 2024 to 26,169 cases in 2025. The previous annual decline occurred in 2023, but the magnitude of the current drop is notably larger, suggesting a more pronounced pullback in market activity.
The quarterly decline was broad based across flat types. 4-room flats, which continue to form the largest segment of the resale market, saw a substantial reduction in transactions, alongside similar pullbacks in 3-room and 5-room flats. Executive flats recorded the steepest percentage decline. Despite this, the overall demand profile remained largely unchanged, with family-sized flats still accounting for the majority of resale activity.
Falling volumes alongside stable prices typically point to a period of price discovery. Buyers are taking more time to assess options, while sellers are adjusting expectations in response to softer demand. This often results in longer marketing periods and more negotiated outcomes, rather than rapid price movements.
Median Resale Prices Highlight Continued Location Differentiation
Median resale prices by town and flat type in 4Q 2025 show that price differentiation across locations remains firmly in place. Mature and centrally located estates continue to command higher median prices, particularly for 4-room, 5-room, and executive flats, reflecting their established amenities, transport connectivity, and enduring appeal to family buyers.
At the same time, thinner transaction volumes in certain towns and flat types mean that medians should be interpreted with care. In a slower market, individual unit attributes such as remaining lease, floor level, renovation condition, and proximity to amenities play an increasingly important role in determining final transacted prices. As a result, price dispersion within the same town is likely to widen as buyers become more selective.
Rental Market Stays Active, Though Quarterly Approvals Ease
The rental market showed signs of quarterly moderation, even as full-year activity remained strong. Approved applications to rent out HDB flats fell by 5.6% from the previous quarter to 9,557 cases in 4Q 2025. However, this figure was still 11.1% higher than a year earlier, underscoring the continued relevance of the rental market in meeting housing needs.
Across the whole of 2025, approved rental applications increased by 7.5% to 39,408 cases. As at the end of the year, 58,775 HDB flats were rented out, a slight decline from the previous quarter but broadly stable overall.
Median rents continued to reflect clear differences across towns and flat types. Central and mature estates generally recorded higher rents, particularly for 4-room and 5-room flats, while more suburban locations offered relatively lower rental options. The easing in quarterly approvals suggests that tenants are becoming more price conscious, and landlords may face greater competition, especially where supply is ample.
Upcoming Flat Supply to Shape Market Expectations
Looking ahead, HDB outlined a substantial pipeline of new flat supply. About 19,600 Build-To-Order flats will be launched across three sales exercises in 2026, including more than 4,000 Shorter Waiting Time flats with waiting periods of less than three years. Beyond 2026, HDB is prepared to offer more than 55,000 flats between 2025 and 2027, if required to meet housing demand.
In February 2026, around 4,600 BTO flats will be launched in Bukit Merah, Sembawang, Tampines, and Toa Payoh, alongside a Sale of Balance Flats exercise offering about 3,000 units. Greater supply visibility, particularly with shorter waiting times, is likely to influence buyer sentiment by providing clearer alternatives to the resale market.
A Market Moving From Momentum to Fundamentals
Overall, the 4Q 2025 public housing data suggests that Singapore’s HDB market is transitioning into a more balanced and measured phase. Resale prices have stabilised after years of growth, transaction volumes have declined meaningfully, and rental demand, while still firm, is no longer accelerating. With a clearer supply pipeline ahead and continued policy oversight, market conditions are increasingly shaped by fundamentals rather than urgency.
In this environment, households are likely to approach housing decisions with greater prudence, focusing on affordability, long-term suitability, and financial resilience. For both buyers and sellers, the coming period may be defined less by rapid price movements and more by careful planning, realistic expectations, and value-driven decisions.
If you would like to understand how these market shifts may affect your own housing plans, speak with our sales consultants for a clearer, situation-specific perspective.
